October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Guest CulverJosh]

Too bad it is a fast mover and moisture starved. Looks like a pretty energetic little front coming in.

 

Edit: And it is late October .

[TacomaWaWx]

12z Euro looks good for this weekend and early next week. #West.

[Kayla]

The Pacific is completely shut down for the foreseeable future. Blocking for dayz.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Starting to rain here. Breezy SW gusts and currently 57.

[ShawniganLake]

[Blizzard777]

Northerly winds have begun now up here

Still a light rain falling

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Pacific is completely shut down for the foreseeable future. Blocking for dayz.

 

Shut it down!

[Kayla]

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All the major players are there on the Euro at day 10 as well.

 

Seems likely at this point that we'll see another Arctic blast the first full week of November with this one possibly centered further west.

[Timmy Supercell]

Definitely prescribed burns. Fall can be pretty smokey in eastern oregon once it's wet enough. Thanks a lot forest service for caring.

 

When there was a prescribed burn in Keno earlier this month we had our worst smoke in all of 2019, which is kinda funny. Other locals here were wondering if that one got out of control on accident.  There was maybe 1 mile of visibility and it triggered the AQI readings as unhealthy. Think that was on Oct 9th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice in the central Willamette Valley. 62F in Monmouth and the same number in Corvallis and Springfield in the south Valley. Mostly cloudy but way fewer as I am headed south.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF is unchanged both it and the GEM are colder than the GFS Day 3-5. The bigger story in my opinion may be the GFS/GEM ensembles which show very good retrogression with a block over Alaska near 155-160 W and the potential for major cold in early-mid November.

 

Here is Day 4 12z ECMWF

 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... 12Z EPS:

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[seattleweatherguy]

This is the type of 500mb height anomalies that I wanted to see 4th of July weekend... it finally comes on Halloween instead.

 

Mid 60s for Halloween?

[TT-SEA]

Mid 60s for Halloween?

No... probably mid 50s and sunny with a light wind per the 12Z ECMWF.

[Deweydog]

All rain here in Kelso.

[FroYoBro]

All rain here in Kelso.

Wow. Nice way to kill the mood...

[TacomaWaWx]

Had a trace of rainfall but that was it earlier. Looks like there’s a CZ going but doesn’t look like it’s going to hit us. 4.04” of rain will be the final total for October.

[TacomaWaWx]

Light N winds now after getting breezy SW winds most of the morning.

[Guest CulverJosh]

The little itty bitty PSCZ committee looks to be developing behind the front over North Seattle.

Those one's always made me sad when it was 30 outside.

[seattleweatherguy]

More of this in winter I’m getting nailed with rain right now

[BLI snowman]

12z Euro suggests a pretty good chance of

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, up to 66 now in Salem. Could make a run at 70 today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Went from 58 to 52 here in the last hour. Still don’t think we’re going to see any rain here today.

[Phil]

Can you say dry?

 

[TT-SEA]

Can you say dry?

 

 

 

Yes... I can.

[Front Ranger]

Cloudy day in Atlanta. Temp around 70.

[BLI snowman]

Wow, up to 66 now in Salem. Could make a run at 70 today.

 

Temp went from 59 to 54 here as the clipper front slid down.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

68F in Eugene/Springfield. Going to hit 70 again. Crazy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS is slowly moving towards the EURO and GEM solutions. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

68F in Eugene/Springfield. Going to hit 70 again. Crazy.

 

This is crazy...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some nice cold members in the ensembles in the long range.

[FroYoBro]

The arctic front is coming through here now. I was thinking that it might stay dry down here today, but it is definitely raining lightly out there. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just hit 70F

 

 

Going to be a pretty warm cold season after Oct down here.

[TacomaWaWx]

CZ is still alive but not very strong it appears.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Can you say dry?

 

Yes Sir.

 

Will be interesting how long into November this dry pattern will dominate.

[TT-SEA]

This is crazy...

 

 

 

Snow in Wyoming?  

[Guest CulverJosh]

That situation in California is a joke.

[TacomaWaWx]

Going to be dry and chilly for awhile.

[Kayla]

This is crazy...

 

Ground zero...

[BLI snowman]

Ground zero...

 

MT probably won't catch 1919 and 1925 but I think there's a good chance that October will make a run at 3rd coldest on record for the state.