November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hearing some reports of light non-sticking snow in the Eugene area. Hope Tiger is seeing something. 

[TT-SEA]

Blewett is getting hammered.

That is cool.

 

I wish Snoqualmie Pass was getting some of that upslope.

[MossMan]

33 degrees currently...what an epic airmass!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Been really blowing here in north Bellingham since yesterday evening, and it's not even to the strongest part of the event yet. Thankfully my part of town has 100% underground electric service, so unless a major transmission line comes down (possible, but unlikely) I'm going to have uninterrupted service.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Blewett is getting hammered.

Thanks for the heads up. Will tell people around here. We are supposed to get 2-4 inches here today. More than originally forecast.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hearing some reports of light non-sticking snow in the Eugene area. Hope Tiger is seeing something.

Yep. At least some flakes in the air. More than I was expecting this cold season. Nice to see.

[jcmcgaffey]

Actually not a convergence zone. It is upslope snow caused by easterly winds from the low to the South. Which is why I am supposed to get 2-4 inches of snow today. Probably fairly light snow considering that it is upslope snow and not a convergence zone. But hopefully they have gotten a bunch for skiers, but doubtful.

 

One of the few times I am forecasted to get more snow than Stevens. Currently snowing lightly here.

up slope looks different than this. There are just a couple narrow bands along the cascades which look to be small convergences which I am sure are enhanced by upslope as well. Unless the narrow bands are just areas of better radar coverage.

[Blizzard777]

Well, I'm not Tiger, but I did wake to a bit of snow on the ground and in the air.  32 degrees.

 

 

Deck up in the canopy.....NiCE! I 

[ShawniganLake]

Mild and breezy this morning. Temp warmed to 37 overnight. I’m going to get one last lawn mow in at my place this morning.

 

Current temps around SW BC

Abbotsford 40F

Agassiz 40F

Victoria 42F

Vancouver 39F

Nanaimo 27F

[Blizzard777]

Federal Way 36* winds 5-15 overnight some higher gust.

SE PDX 39 East winds lightening up a bit but some stronger gust occasionally blow through.

Timberline looks nasty and fun, wind blowing snow sideways (currently 19*)

[TT-SEA]

up slope looks different than this. There are just a couple narrow bands along the cascades which look to be small convergences which I am sure are enhanced by upslope as well. Unless the narrow bands are just areas of better radar coverage.

 

 

I think it has to do with height of the Cascades in those places... Snoqualmie Pass is lower and not getting any snow.

 

A convergence zone in the Cascades is generally associated with the area where the winds meet coming around the Olympic Mountains in onshore flow.

 

What is happening now in the Oregon and Washington Cascades appears to just be general upslope in easterly flow. 

[Jesse]

Mild and breezy this morning. Temp warmed to 37 overnight. I’m going to get one last lawn mow in at my place this morning.

 

Current temps around SW BC

Abbotsford 40F

Agassiz 40F

Victoria 42F

Vancouver 39F

Nanaimo 27F

Alright I’m back. What do you want?

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

[Guest CulverJosh]

up slope looks different than this. There are just a couple narrow bands along the cascades which look to be small convergences which I am sure are enhanced by upslope as well. Unless the narrow bands are just areas of better radar coverage.

Bingo!! You wouldn’t know there was a blizzard going on from la Pine to Madras right now but there is. I am right in the middle of it in south Bend at the moment.

 

The radar coverage sucks big time but there is some serious upslope. That is exactly what is going on up in the cascades and especially a place like Leavenworth.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday event is pretty pathetic on the 12Z GFS... a trend started in the models yesterday.     

 

The precip never even makes it to Seattle.

 

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

Careful. I’ll start posting before and after pics of lawns. Maybe try to find some out of season blooms to share with everyone.

 

 

No blooms here... things are more dormant than usual for late November.

 

Hopefully this means a good summer for our fruit trees coming up.   Unless of course we have record warmth in January and record cold in February and March again   That was not a good progression.   Lets flip that around this year! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene flurries. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWUy64qL0bg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR3TiSjrmHJRsQEbbWvEzqPmf0blNg8ZwvVxnM6eHLHLF4n-IVRDfEnK-Vk

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A good inch on the deck railing (hard to hold the ruler steady in one hand while holding the camera in the other):

 

 

SCORE!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was down to 30 this morning when I left for work. Had 38/33 yesterday. Still cloudy, but the wind had dropped off. DP down to 24 at SLE right now, so if we can get some good clearing the next few nights we should see some solidly chilly lows. Still on pace for the coldest November at SLE since 2007.  Will likely also be the coldest SON period at SLE since 1985. 

 

0.72" of rain now at Salem this month. With Saturday's system fizzling, probably about where they will end up, which would be good for 3rd driest November all-time behind 1936 and 1929. Not bad company to be in. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS brings some light ZR from about EUG to Albany Sunday morning and light snow Albany to PDX. Just a few hundredths of precip at the most, but something. The timing is decent too...

 

Interestingly it also carves out a decent trough over the PNW late next week into the weekend. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS looks less consolidated than the 00Z run in the mid and long range.     Split flow never really ends.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

up slope looks different than this. There are just a couple narrow bands along the cascades which look to be small convergences which I am sure are enhanced by upslope as well. Unless the narrow bands are just areas of better radar coverage.

Perhaps a bit of convergence, but 100% sure it is upslope. I read the Spokane AFD and they talk about it. That is why I am getting snow, and if you look at the radar that I am seeing, it is Easterly flow. NWS calling for an inch of snow for Stevens Pass and 3-5 for Leavenworth, as the band of snow weakens as heads West toward Steven's. We see this a lot around here with upslope flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z GFS looks much less consolidated than the 00Z run in the mid and long range.     Split flow never really ends.

 

Yep. Which is too bad. That mountain snow would be nice. I have noticed the ensembles trending drier though. It looks a lot chillier overall too. 

 

This is a pretty chilly airmass in place with clear skies probably.... In early December at face value I would say this is good for some solidly below average temps.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Look how much snow falls in the Sierras by next weekend. There is a TON more snow after this point too from about Crate Lake/South. Mt. Ashland may be the place to go skiing this year. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Yep. Which is too bad. That mountain snow would be nice. I have noticed the ensembles trending drier though. It looks a lot chillier overall too. 

 

This is a pretty chilly airmass in place with clear skies probably.... In early December at face value I would say this is good for some solidly below average temps.

 

 

 

Need moisture... then cold.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really cold air dropping towards the Northern Plains in the long range. 

 

[Winterdog]

It was 29 here at 8 pm yesterday then the breezes started blowing with high clouds and the temps been going up ever since. Currently 40 with a DP of 28. The weather has had a weird feel to it the past day.

[ShawniganLake]

This gfs is much different than anything we’ve seen in the long range recently. More blocky and cold dropping south again

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Need moisture... then cold.    

 

Looks like Timberline and Bachelor have 22" bases now and are hoping for limited openings this weekend. Hoodoo is at 16", Willamette Pass 10". So one decent storm would probably get everyone open... I think at face value everyone in Oregon would be able to open by the end of next weekend. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it’s Andrew’s tourn now.

 

Going to Oklahoma in December and January, and Denver in January....

[ShawniganLake]

It was 29 here at 8 pm yesterday then the breezes started blowing with high clouds and the temps been going up ever since. Currently 40 with a DP of 28. The weather has had a weird feel to it the past day.

Yea. It’s a already 2 degrees warmer this morning than what the high was yesterday. This outflow is not as cold as I thought it would be.

[jcmcgaffey]

Perhaps a bit of convergence, but 100% sure it is upslope. I read the Spokane AFD and they talk about it. That is why I am getting snow, and if you look at the radar that I am seeing, it is Easterly flow. NWS calling for an inch of snow for Stevens Pass and 3-5 for Leavenworth, as the band of snow weakens as heads West toward Steven's. We see this a lot around here with upslope flow.

ya I think you guys are right. It is just poor radar coverage east of the mountains so that only the stronger areas of upslope due to maybe a bit of convergence shows on the radar or areas the radar captures better for some reason. I stayed one year in Leavenworth in December when this same situation happened and got dumped on while we were there and it was amazing.

[TT-SEA]

Perhaps a bit of convergence, but 100% sure it is upslope. I read the Spokane AFD and they talk about it. That is why I am getting snow, and if you look at the radar that I am seeing, it is Easterly flow. NWS calling for an inch of snow for Stevens Pass and 3-5 for Leavenworth, as the band of snow weakens as heads West toward Steven's. We see this a lot around here with upslope flow.

 

I agree with you.

 

What would the winds be converging around on the east side of the Cascades?   Certainly not the Olympic Mountains with widespread NE flow.

[jcmcgaffey]

I agree with you.

 

What would the winds be converging around on the east side of the Cascades? Certainly not the Olympic Mountains with widespread NE flow.

. Looks like it is around the major peaks and also the enchantments with Stewart etc. could just be better radar coverage in those areas too.

[Jesse]

Yea. It’s a already 2 degrees warmer this morning than what the high was yesterday. This outflow is not as cold as I thought it would be.

The CAA has been pretty weak here too. Only bottomed out at 39 here, and PDX has yet to fall below 40.

 

The CAA was actually much more impressive with the late October event.