November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

If we have to wait until January for our December 1990 redux (according to flatiron) I’m gonna pout/scream!

[Jesse]

If we have to wait until January for our December 1990 redux (according to flatiron) I’m gonna pout/scream!

TigerFallsAndido hack ur account?

[MossMan]

Yes. Sitting here on November 27 looking back over the entire winter that has already happened and is over now...that is all we got.

All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous....

[TT-SEA]

All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous....

It will work out eventually. But it's not in sight yet. All these improvements are a mirage for now.

[Jesse]

All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous....

Hot garbage might be a better phrase. Those maps have looked warm in the long range for weeks, and here we are sitting in the midst of a decent cold event at the end of a near to below average November with the potential for more action ahead, according to the GFS ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Hot garbage might be a better phrase. Those maps have looked warm in the long range for weeks, and here we are sitting in the midst of a decent cold event at the end of a near to below average November with the potential for more action ahead according to the GFS ensembles.

 

 

EPS has clearly lead the way since late October.    No question.

 

Warm at the 850mb level does not mean warm at the surface in the cold season.   But it does mean that lowland snow is very unlikely.   

 

Its been a very dry month and the upper levels were warm for most of the month.   Those EPS maps have been extremely accurate for weeks... the GFS ensembles are always showing it turning wetter and yet it stays dry.

 

Only in the last couple days has turned colder at the upper levels and it will not last long.   

[Cloud]

SEA is at 47.9 for the month through yesterday... which +2.0 per the NWS.

Yeah. I just looked it up. That’s my bad. I think there was a 60 earlier this month and a few high 50s makes it warmer.

[TT-SEA]

850mb temp anomaly over the last month... the EPS nailed it.




The real consistent thing the EPS has been showing since late October is drier than normal. There has not been a run in at least 5 weeks that has shown wetter than normal over the PNW. Hard to argue with accuracy of that prediction.

[Requiem]

I just want some more East wind! I can wait for snow.

[TT-SEA]

All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous....

The EPS would have had you believe November was going to be very dull and boring.

 

Don't believe it. Garbage.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yes. Sitting here on November 27 looking back over the entire winter that has already happened and is over now...that is all we got.

What a lame winter we’ve had...too bad it’s over now...winter cancel. Gonna be in the low to mid 60s from December to February and then full on summer conditions by mid April.

[TT-SEA]

What a lame winter we’ve had...too bad it’s over now...winter cancel. Gonna be in the low to mid 60s from December to February and then full on summer conditions by mid April.

 

 

Don't play that strawman game with him.

 

Randy is just anxious for something soon.   He is not saying the entire winter is hopeless.   And if he does say that... its just reverse psychology.   He does not really think that.  

[OysterPrintout]

God grant me the strength to do anything with as much confidence as Tim posting long range EPS maps.

[TacomaWaWx]

Don't play that strawman game with him.

 

Randy is just anxious for something soon.   He is not saying the entire winter is hopeless.   And if he does say that... its just reverse psychology.   He does not really think that.

 

Not even sure who randy is...don’t know all of your names. Wasn’t even directed at anyone specifically...just about the general idea of people constantly saying this winter is dead before it’s even began.

[TT-SEA]

God grant me the strength to do anything with as much confidence as Tim posting long range EPS maps.

 

Sometimes the EPS is all over the place and its not worth posting because its changing so much.   It was like that pretty much all summer... overpromising ridging and warmth.   That was garbage.

 

But it has been consistently leading the way for quite a long time.   It obviously does very well with this pattern.    Until it starts to become inconsistent again... its probably going to be right.     People saying to throw it out or that its garbage are kidding themselves.     I am not sure how it could have done any better since late October.

[TT-SEA]

Not even sure who randy is...don’t know all of your names. Wasn’t even directed at anyone specifically...just about the general idea of people constantly saying this winter is dead before it’s even began.

 

Randy is Mossman.    

[Deweydog]

The touch, the feel of the EPS.

 

The fabric of our lives.

 

-Aaron Neville

[TT-SEA]

And remember... the EPS was the consistent rock during the February and March cold spell.   It was so consistent that I could not tell one run from the next.

 

If the EPS starts showing cold consistently again this winter... the same people will be praising it.     

[El_Nina]

I think I mentioned before how we should just start gauging our winters based on the 850 mb temps. That's where the snowpack is and we also can be "cold" when under ridging. The truth is we have no chance at systems or snow under a ridge.

[Guest CulverJosh]

EPS is experimental by definition.

[TT-SEA]

I think I mentioned before how we should just start gauging our winters based on the 850 mb temps. That's where the snowpack is and we also can be "cold" when under ridging. The truth is we have no chance at systems or snow under a ridge.

 

 

Yes... the 850mb temps are really important and tell a different story.    It can obviously be cold at the surface with warm 850mb temps.   But its not nearly as good as cold 850mb temps.  

[umadbro]

EPS

 

EPS

 

EPS

 

EPS

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

I don’t live anywhere near 5,000 feet ASL.

 

850mb temps are MEANINGLESS.

[Jesse]

I don’t leave anywhere near 5,000 feet ASL.

 

850mb temps are MEANINGLESS.

Enter Phil.

[jakerepp]

And remember... the EPS was the consistent rock during the February and March cold spell.   It was so consistent that I could not tell one run from the next.

 

If the EPS starts showing cold consistently again this winter... the same people will be praising it.     

Human nature to believe what we want to believe and discredit the rest. We're all guilty of it, to some degree 

[Jesse]

PDX down to 47.

[Deweydog]

Enter Phil.

Enter Sandman!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 at the house. Chilly. PDX torching again I guess. 

[Deweydog]

PDX down to 47.

Best to focus on dew points.

[TT-SEA]

Human nature to believe what we want to believe and discredit the rest. We're all guilty of it, to some degree 

 

 

I did not trust the EPS all summer... it was constantly showing very warm and ridgy and it was almost always wrong.

 

Its been extremely accurate lately though... in terms of 850mb temps and precip anomalies.    I think people ignoring the consistency of the EPS right now just don't want to believe it and don't like what it shows.

[Jesse]

[Timmy Supercell]

12Z ECMWF still shows some light snow moving north on Saturday night into Sunday morning...

 

 

Ha, so just 30 miles or so south of me, another nice event and almost none for K-Falls. Though sometimes the models have had difficulty dealing with the basin in previous events. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Randy is Mossman.

 

Definitely wasn’t directed at him. Some posters are sarcastic and not always literal I understand that. Some other posters are not and seem to think 1-2 bad model runs equals a winter cancel.

[TT-SEA]

We have been hearing about the GFS ensembles turning wet in the long range for almost 6 weeks and it has not happened.   The EPS has never wavered showing much drier than normal.   At some point... you have to assume that the pattern will not change until the EPS agrees that it will change.   

[MossMan]

What makes me the most nervous is this persistent split flow regime...gives me horrendous flashbacks of a few winters in the past where we could never really break the awful cycle.

 

I did just order the snow plow and chains for my mower...I found a cheaper source than the dealer so I pulled the trigger! Should be here just in time for our massive arctic outbreak that starts the week before Christmas!!

[TT-SEA]

What makes me the most nervous is this persistent split flow regime...gives me horrendous flashbacks of a few winters in the past where we could never really break the awful cycle.

 

I did just order the snow plow and chains for my mower...I found a cheaper source than the dealer so I pulled the trigger! Should be here just in time for our massive arctic outbreak that starts the week before Christmas!!

 

Yeah... the persistent split flow is what has me concerned about the ski season.    As Shawnigan said... that pattern is really hard to break.

[MossMan]

Enter Sandman!

Exit Light

Enter Night...

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

[Timmy Supercell]

Started a '19-'20 section on my signature, and notice how in a 24 hour event I neatly cleared out my normal for November. Curious if next month gives us a few more storms or if it's dry. I remember Dec 2010 also being pretty snowy after the big Thanksgiving snowstorm down here. >20" if I recall.

[TT-SEA]

SEA up to 47... and its 45 out here.