November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain maybe finally reaching Eugene by Thursday?

[TT-SEA]

Lol @ how the mood in here swings with each clown range GFS run. You’re all gonna wear yourselves out before winter even begins.

 

I am a hawk for nice weather in the warm season... and even I don't spend time trying to make myself feel better with 300+ hour maps from the 18Z run.     That would not improve my mood in any way.      <_>

[BLI snowman]

Wow, this is wild. Just shows you how dry it's been in Australia. We have to go back all the way to the 1880s before finding something close to this. Speaking of Nov 1886, that was a great winter here in the PNW. Top 10 all time snowfall here at PDX. They had 31.2" that winter in 1886-87. Anybody have more info on that winter and when the Arctic Blast(s) and snows came?

 

 

 

All in February. 1886-87 was a progression similar to last winter, only way way better.

[TT-SEA]

The inaccuracies are very apparent with that model. How does Oregon have that cold of anomolies with Eastern Washington in a warm anomoly? Never happens. Tells you all you need to know about that model.

 

 

That is at the 850mb level.

 

That could easily happen... and those anomalies are very weak anyways.

 

The GFS and ECMWF also show it happening in 3 days... its actually common with split flow for the 850mb anomalies to be cooler farther south.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice to be in a slightly cooler clime this week. Highs in the upper 40s coming up!

[GHweatherChris]

I am a hawk for nice weather in the warm season... and even I don't spend time trying to make myself feel better with 300+ hour maps from the 18Z run. That would not improve my mood in any way. <_>

You are just as guilty, seen it many times.

[TT-SEA]

You are just as guilty, seen it many times.

I usually don't even look at the 18Z run... let alone the 300+ hours.

[GHweatherChris]

I usually don't even look at the 18Z run... let alone the 300+ hours.

I don't expect you to admit it on here lol!

[TT-SEA]

I don't expect you to admit it on here lol!

It would only make me feel worse to know anything good is still 300+ hours out on the 18Z run.

[Deweydog]

It would only make me feel worse to know anything good is still 300+ hours out on the 18Z run.

Good as in goodies??

[TT-SEA]

Good as in goodies??

 

 

Yes... goodies is the toddler version of good.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nice to be in a slightly cooler clime this week. Highs in the upper 40s coming up!

Where are you at?

[TT-SEA]

Where are you at?

 

1,600 feet... east of Salem, OR.

[Guest CulverJosh]

1,600 feet... east of Salem, OR.

Yep. He lives in a pretty amazing place. Always squeezes out every ounce of precip (orographics), and high enough to reap the benefits (snow), in marginal onshore flow situations. Basically the same elevation as Detroit and I dont think I ever went fishing there Nov-April growing up without some upslope clouds at least.

[TT-SEA]

Yep. He lives in a pretty amazing place. Always squeezes out every ounce of precip (orographics), and high enough to reap the benefits in marginal onshore flow situations. Basically the same elevation as Detroit and I dont think I ever went fishing there Nov-April growing up without some upslope clouds at least.

 

No east wind or offshore flow though. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, slight potential for a Columbia Basin cold pool coming up?

[Phil]

Re: The 1880s/19th century Australian drought.

 

From Eric Webb’s site, some reconstructed 19th/early 20th century ENSO (by trimonthly ONI).

 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

No east wind or offshore flow though.

True, but the other benefits make up for it I think. Feast or famine.

 

On another note. And a totally different animal. When I was in Lake Stevens for 8 years I just was amazed at how much snow we would get in relation to downtown Everett @ only 270' of elevation. That pscz just loved a couple hundred feet of elevation in relation to sea level. My ex-gf thought I was crazy how I had dreams of living at 2000' on Mt pilchuck. I could only orgasm at that kind of fun.

[MossMan]

.26” on the day. 47 degrees currently.

[Phil]

Re: The 1880s/19th century Australian drought.

 

From Eric Webb’s site, some reconstructed 19th/early 20th century ENSO (by trimonthly ONI).

 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

Apparently there were coherent subdecadal ENSO regimes back then, even if relatively low in amplitude.

 

Unbroken +ENSO from 1864-65 to 1868-69, -ENSO from 1869-70 to 1875-76, etc.

[Cloud]

0.27” for the day. Currently 50 and drizzly.

 

For the month, ~0.50” and well below normal to date.

[GHweatherChris]

[Jesse]

Re: The 1880s/19th century Australian drought.

 

From Eric Webb’s site, some reconstructed 19th/early 20th century ENSO (by trimonthly ONI).

 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

Hmmmm....

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Re: The 1880s/19th century Australian drought.

 

From Eric Webb’s site, some reconstructed 19th/early 20th century ENSO (by trimonthly ONI).

 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

Where is 2002?

[TT-SEA]

Re: The 1880s/19th century Australian drought.

 

From Eric Webb’s site, some reconstructed 19th/early 20th century ENSO (by trimonthly ONI).

 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

 

Oh I see... it only goes out through 1914.

[GHweatherChris]

Oh I see... it only goes out through 1914.

It has to be accurate as well....

[Phil]

Maybe click on the link and read up on the methodologies before jumping to conclusions?

 

Oh sorry I forgot..Oktoberrr = deztinyyy is all the rage nowadays.

[TT-SEA]

Re: The 1880s/19th century Australian drought.

 

From Eric Webb’s site, some reconstructed 19th/early 20th century ENSO (by trimonthly ONI).

 

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

 

 

Maybe click on the link and read up on the methodologies before jumping to conclusions?

 

 

You mean the link above here?

[Gradient Keeper]

A LOT of neutral Winters back in the good ole days!

 

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 49 minutes

[Phil]

You mean the link above here?

Take a guess.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

 

 

2002?

[GHweatherChris]

Maybe click on the link and read up on the methodologies before jumping to conclusions?

 

Oh sorry I forgot..Oktoberrr = deztinyyy is all the rage nowadays.

Seems like alot of assuming was used, IMO.

[Jesse]

Seems like alot of assuming was used, IMO.

Yeah how could they know what those departures from average actually were when time hasn’t even ended yet?

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS!!  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wait. WHAT? Make sure you're sitting down. Day 6 and what's this? The GFS is trying to throw an actual legit low towards us? 995mb into Vancouver Island. Not a wind storm or close to it, but still nice to see IF it verifies. Low is still deepening after landfall, so it could be windy for the Puget Sound up to Bellingham.

 

[Deweydog]

Whoa!

[Gradient Keeper]

110-120kt jet support.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 if the pattern weren't so progressive this trough could have been rather chilly.