November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Euro looks really balmy for Sunday and Monday.

 

Starting to get a January 2019 vibe.

[Jesse]

Sexy rexy is BACK on the Euro at hour 192.

[Jesse]

A pretty disappointing run all things considered. I will take the GFS depiction of the pattern plz.

[ShawniganLake]

Sexy rexy is BACK on the Euro at hour 192.

GEM also has that same look.

[Jesse]

GEM also has that same look.

Fook.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sexy rexy is BACK on the Euro at hour 192.

 

I really feel bad for Jim. Maybe someday he will score. 

[Jesse]

I really feel bad for Jim. Maybe someday he will score.

 

I feel bad for you, son. 528dm line nowhere close on this run.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Split flow is not a very good sign when looking for meaningful cold, as the cold air source is generally cutoff across northern Canada. It is also often one of the most difficult patterns to break out of. Which is likely why we aren’t seeing the optimism that Jim is looking for.

Just because the models are showing split flow this week doesn’t mean the entire winter is over and it’s not going to snow. Everyone on here sees split flow and just says winter cancel lol.

Here's a good write up and illustration from Mark a while back about the Split Flow pattern. It's a stubborn pattern that can dominate the entire winter. One of the reasons why some people don't like seeing it show up in the models. It's still very early though, so I'm not that concerned. If we saw this pattern deeper into the winter then I'd be more concerned. Most people are thinking January is the month we score so no need to panic.

 

[Deweydog]

I’ve had two people mention today that Rod Hill said it’s supposed to rain every day for six weeks starting this weekend and snow on thanksgiving. Yup.

[Jesse]

I think the Euro is that one light orange member on the GFS ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure how it was determined that the 00Z ECMWF was cold next week (it was not)... but the 12Z ECMWF is even warmer than the 00Z run.

 

Offshore flow and sunshine later next week on this run... could be some more low 60s in the foothills.

 

[ShawniganLake]

[Kayla]

Ugly runs this morning... Hopefully just model noise. 

[ShawniganLake]

Waters off the coast are warming again. Blob is shifting back to the east a bit.

[Deweydog]

Low solar.

[Dave]

A few drops in the air. The winning streak down here is in jeopardy.

[MossMan]

The PNA is just a calculation based on the 500mb height anomalies across the NPAC/North America that we look at every day. You don’t need it to determine your level of optimism/pessimism..the November 2014 blast happened during a +PNA, as have many others.

Hmmm...Let me know which others. All the big events that I remember were under...not over.

[TT-SEA]

Just a reminder... the much maligned EPS has not been showing any real cold signal over the West for many runs going back to late October.    And still does not show anything over the next 2 weeks.

 

I have been told that I don't how to read the models.   But I know that when then EPS consistently shows the same thing... its probably meaningful.   It was meaningful last February when it showed nothing but cold.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the 12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period.    This is a Rex Block signal.

 

 

 

 

Still drier than normal as well over the next 15 days:

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Just a reminder... the much maligned EPS has not been showing any real cold signal over the West for many runs going back to late October. And still does not show anything over the next 2 weeks.

 

I have been told that I don't how to read the models. But I know that when then EPS consistently shows the same thing... its probably meaningful. It was meaningful last February when it showed nothing but cold.

To my eyes it appears a mild EPS run but a pretty active jet west to east. Probably why the plains and great lakes are showing positive anomolies during the period.

 

Edit: Just saw the map you posted. Doesnt show much troughing in the east so we may still be ok. Those anomolies arent always indicative of high pressure.

[TT-SEA]

To my eyes it appears a mild EPS run but a pretty active jet west to east. Probably why the plains and great lakes are showing positive anomolies during the period.

 

Not an active jet... evidenced by drier than normal conditions across the PNW.  

 

Blocky signal.    The block is just in the wrong place now.  

[MossMan]

We might be waiting until February again this season.

[TT-SEA]

We might be waiting until February again this season.

 

 

Uggghhhhh.

[Omegaraptor]

We might be waiting until February again this season.

 

In the PNW, fall lasts from late September to late January.

[Kayla]

Just a reminder... the much maligned EPS has not been showing any real cold signal over the West for many runs going back to late October.    And still does not show anything over the next 2 weeks.

 

I have been told that I don't how to read the models.   But I know that when then EPS consistently shows the same thing... its probably meaningful.   It was meaningful last February when it showed nothing but cold.

 

Wow, you just don't know when to give it a rest. My point yesterday was to look for trends in the EPS vs just always posting the 850mb temp anomaly map. It doesn't give you a good idea on the pattern evolution when we're looking for a pattern change. 

 

Case in point, here is the 12z EPS in the long range showing a change in the 500mb pattern with lowering heights in the west and building heights in the Aleutians island. Usually a good sign and something to look for beyond day 10.

 

[MossMan]

Abby Acone apparently did not check this forum before writing this article.

https://komonews.com/news/local/time-to-get-prepared-for-extreme-weather-this-winter

[TT-SEA]

Wow, you just don't know when to give it a rest. My point yesterday was to look for trends in the EPS vs just always posting the 850mb temp anomaly map. It doesn't give you a good idea on the pattern evolution when we're looking for a pattern change. 

 

Case in point, here is the 12z EPS in the long range showing a change in the 500mb pattern with lowering heights in the west and building heights in the Aleutians island. Usually a good sign and something to look for beyond day 10.

 

Screen Shot 2019-11-12 at 1.06.40 PM.png

 

 

 

I did not say anything wrong.   You were attacking me for having an agenda with 850mb temp maps... but you did not say anything about my 850mb temp analysis last February other than glowing agreement.  

 

The 500mb maps become very smoothed out after day 10... 850mb temps provide more information.   Particularly if there is a strong signal.

 

Here is the 500mb mean from the 12Z EPS at day 15.

 

 

 

If you want to say that is evolving into something great... then fine.     I understand that trends are also important.  

 

But I said there is no cold signal over the West over the next 2 weeks.   That is an accurate statement.   And something that I usually track because its usually meaningful.    When there is a strong cold signal... its a great sign.   

[Kayla]

[TT-SEA]

[Deweydog]

So is it gonna snow soon or not?????

[MossMan]

So is it gonna snow soon or not?????

No.

[Timmy]

So is it gonna snow soon or not?????

MLK

[MossMan]

MLK

2021.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have learned today that anyone who thinks it might be cold anytime soon is an idiot. 

[TT-SEA]

I have learned today that anyone who thinks it might be cold anytime soon is an idiot. 

 

Not an idiot.   But it seems unlikely for the next 7-10 days at least.

 

Just like warmth was very unlikely back in late September and October... and last February and early March.

[TacomaWaWx]

I have learned today that anyone who thinks it might be cold anytime soon is an idiot.

Don’t think anyone even said that, we’ve been talking about it being warm/dry split flow who even said it was going to be cold anytime soon?

[Guest CulverJosh]

Don’t think anyone even said that, we’ve been talking about it being warm/dry split flow who even said it was going to be cold anytime soon?

The ingredients are there. These things can turn on a dime, sometimes inside of 2-3 days. We all know this.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The ingredients are there. These things can turn on a dime, sometimes inside of 2-3 days. We all know this.

 

So you're saying there's a chance?

[Kayla]

I have learned today that anyone who thinks it might be cold anytime soon is an idiot.

I don’t think anyone is thinking it’s going to get cold within the next 7-10 days. It’s days 12+ that has my interest.

[TacomaWaWx]

The ingredients are there. These things can turn on a dime, sometimes inside of 2-3 days. We all know this.

Seems an awful lot like how January 2019 was right now. I don’t think anything will happen this month but like you said the ingredients are there for something next month or January.