November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

You can’t interpret the long range ensemble means the same way each time.

 

Its more a matter of looking for a strong cold signal in the long range... rather than saying it will be warm.  

 

I am not saying it will be warm.   I am just saying there is no strong consensus for cold in the West over the next 2 weeks.   

[Front Ranger]

Definitely nothing very certain beyond day 5 at this point.

 

Even though it was mostly sunny in Dublin today, the icy north wind nearly froze us to death on the walking tour. And, there are palm trees here. Kind of ridiculous considering the latitude. Couldn't help but think of some of you.

[Jesse]

Definitely nothing very certain beyond day 5 at this point.

 

Even though it was mostly sunny in Dublin today, the icy north wind nearly froze us to death on the walking tour. And, there are palm trees here. Kind of ridiculous considering the latitude. Couldn't help but think of some of you.

Classic low solar.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FB_IMG_1573361461024.jpg

Neat picture, circa?

[Deweydog]

Polar vortex.

[seattleweatherguy]

We don't want a strong jet if you want a cold winter.

Lack of a strong jet means less likely chance for windstorms?

[TT-SEA]

Lack of a strong jet means less likely chance for windstorms?

 

 

Possibly... but it just takes the right set up even if its not the dominant pattern.    And I think ENSO neutral years are more likely to have windstorms.

[Kayla]

Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!!

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a

[Front Ranger]

Classic low solar.

Indeed. That's all anyone here wants to talk about.

[TT-SEA]

Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!!

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a

 

He is reporting what the models show for December... even the projected snow level with those systems in early December.   On November 11th.

 

Might just be looking for clicks here?      

[TacomaWaWx]

He is reporting what the models show for December... even the projected snow level with those systems in early December. On November 11th.

 

Might just be looking for clicks here?

Kind of what I was thinking. He also talked about “above normal rainfall the next 6 weeks”.I just don’t see anything but below normal- normal precipitation falling in the next few weeks given the current state of things over the pacific. You never know though, things can always unexpectedly happen like this February.

[Omegaraptor]

Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!!

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a

 

What a joke.

 

The jet will probably retract in a week and we'll be back to drier than average conditions.

[Phil]

Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!!

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a

There’s nothing stable about the coming pattern, so I’m not sure what he’s seeing that could possibly persist for 6+ weeks.

[Jesse]

Remember guys, this is Andrew’s uncle.

[TT-SEA]

There’s nothing stable about the coming pattern, so I’m not sure what he’s seeing that could possibly persist for 6+ weeks.

 

 

He even predicted specific snow amounts for Portland with these phantom systems way out into the future.   Lowland snow amounts must be easy to predict.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good news for the ledge jumpers. No correlation between November temps and the subsequent DJF anomaly in the PNW region.

 

Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early.

 

I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?

[Jesse]

Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early.

 

I'd like him to see create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?

Actually, the takeaway should be that it doesn’t matter, since there’s no significant correlation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rod Hill is the best ever. Period. 

[Phil]

Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early.

 

I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?

Well there’s no significant correlation there, so it probably wouldn’t matter.

 

In the East, there’s a positive correlation (as in, winter temps tend to mirror November temps) but again (FWIW) I’m not a believer in this stuff having much predictability.

[Phil]

And for the heck of it, I personally looked at all Octobers back to the 1870s in DC and checked for a correlation to winter temperatures, and it turns out there’s actually a modest negative correlation here (cold Octobers tend to precede warm winters, and vice versa). Which doesn’t jive with the idea of a positive correlation in the west assuming our temperature tendencies are opposite, which I guess isn’t always true.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS still does not show a cold signal... even in the long range.

 

 

 

But the 15-day precip anomaly is not as extremely dry now...

 

[Deweydog]

Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!!

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a

Yikes!

 

Cat’s out of the bag... I AM ROD HILL.

[Omegaraptor]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early.

 

I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?

There are different reasons why November could be warm.  An active, pineapple express pattern with copious rain.  A huge ridge of high pressure leading to warm days.  Maybe a better correlation could be found using 500 mb patterns instead temperatures.  Probably not, but temperatures by themselves don't tell us much.

[Phil]

I admit I’m getting excited about -NAO potential later this month..could end up being the more dominant block versus the -EPO for a time, until the cold hammer drops, likely towards the Holidays). Reminds me a little bit of last February’s pattern, though the way we’ll progress into this one will be slower/quasi-inverted.

 

Even if December isn’t a “cold” month in the PNW, these tendencies will be priming the system state favorably with time.

[The Swamp]

Interesting, Brian makes the best maps. My takeaway from that is out here we would want a warmer than normal November then. Fits what others have said in the past that we don't want to "score" too early.

 

I'd like to see him create a map like that but for summer as well. How would May temperatures correlate to the JJA timeframe?

 

Score early and score often.  Never miss a chance to score.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TT-SEA]

61 and partly sunny here... nice day.

[Phil]

BTW, I don’t mean excited for my backyard. I mean about the pattern in general..blocking of any kind turns me on.

 

It looks “meh” on some of the modeling right now but that should change in due time. All of the precursors for polar blocking I look for (Scandinavian ridge, NW Pacific Low, activation of MJO after pseudo/dormancy, E-IO subsidence, and the poleward propagation of -AAM) are all present.

 

Nothing is guarunteed, but this is the time I’d be resting up and catching up on my zzz’s before 24/7 model riding time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would take a November snow storm for the lowlands in a heart beat. 

 

In the PNW  lowlands you take it when you can get it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I would take a November snow storm for the lowlands in a heart beat. 

 

In the PNW  lowlands you take it when you can get it.

 

Agreed but I'd prefer it hold off til closer to Thanksgiving as earlier events tend to be more Washington-based like 2006 and 2017.

[Phil]

I’m surprised Tim hasn’t posted the EPS control run yet.

 

Looks like something he’d draw up in his wildest fantasies.

[TT-SEA]

I’m surprised Tim hasn’t posted the EPS control run yet.

 

Looks like something he’d draw up in his wildest fantasies.

 

 

I don't look at the control run.    And would not post it unless we are looking at something historic and it agrees... like last February.  

[MossMan]

I’m predicting it now...A White Thanksgiving for everyone one mile north of PuyallupJon up thru BC.

[MossMan]

Need a good blow to finish these leaves off.

[TT-SEA]

Need a good blow to finish these leaves off.

Our Japanese Maple is hanging on for dear life... need just a little wind.

 

[Jbolin]

I’m predicting it now...A White Thanksgiving for everyone one mile north of PuyallupJon up thru BC.

You're sick man, I love it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

There is actually a bit of a negative correlation in the PNW from what I have discovered. The big exception to that is if November is cold after a cold October.

Well there’s no significant correlation there, so it probably wouldn’t matter.

 

In the East, there’s a positive correlation (as in, winter temps tend to mirror November temps) but again (FWIW) I’m not a believer in this stuff having much predictability.

Hmmm, maybe the key then is to have both October and November be cold. Here is another post he tweeted about on the subject. Again this is all speculative but maybe there is something there.

 

Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49

 

Pearson's correlation coefficient of Oct-Nov temps and Dec-Feb temps using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (detrended). Orange colors (>+0.2) are positive relationships; i.e., warm Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to warm Dec-Feb and cold Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to cold Dec-Feb.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1193696829860302848

[TT-SEA]

SEA up to 60... and 62 at PDX.

 

62 here.  

[jakeinthevalley]

I used a leaf blower yesterday to assist in the final leaves to the ground on our lilac tree. Cottonwoods are still hanging in there. So much better having dry leaves as opposed to the slimy mess they usually are.

 

Ridiculously warm in McMinnville right now. 63f at the airport but the lack of wind and bright sunshine has it feeling like summer.