November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see Anchorage is running a +14 departure on the month...

[Deweydog]

SEA up to 60... and 62 at PDX.

 

62 here.

EPS.

[HighlandExperience]

I’m predicting it now...A White Thanksgiving for everyone one mile north of PuyallupJon up thru BC.

Sounds about right.

[Requiem]

White Thanksgiving Salem up to Centralia!

[Omegaraptor]

[snow_wizard]

Jesus... That webpage is filled with so many ads you can hardly even read what Hill's supposed "forecast" even is.

 

I get trying to make revenue through ads but there is a limit and that site has crossed it ten-fold.

 

You can use google chrome and a free browser app from malwarebytes to cure the ad problem.  My computer is getting old and I had to do something, because it got so bogged down with the ads.

[snow_wizard]

I see Anchorage is running a +14 departure on the month...

 

Might be worth a peak to see what torchy Novembers in Anchorage portend for the PNW.

 

I'm pretty intrigued to see us torching now after the very cold October.  Historically a good omen.

[TT-SEA]

You can use google chrome and a free browser app from malwarebytes to cure the ad problem. My computer is getting old and I had to do something, because it got so bogged down with the ads.

Those are pop-ups.

 

He is referring to the sheer number of ads on the site itself. Which is likely why Rod Hill was making stupidly specific forecasts about timing of snowfall events and snow amounts. It's just garbage to generate clicks to generate revenue.

[snow_wizard]

I used a leaf blower yesterday to assist in the final leaves to the ground on our lilac tree. Cottonwoods are still hanging in there. So much better having dry leaves as opposed to the slimy mess they usually are.

 

Ridiculously warm in McMinnville right now. 63f at the airport but the lack of wind and bright sunshine has it feeling like summer.

 

The cottonwoods went bare ridiculously early up here this year.  

[snow_wizard]

The models seem to agree on some kind of brief 150 ridge about a week out.  Hopefully that will get amped and last longer in future runs.

[Omegaraptor]

I went for 12/2 on the forecast contest at the OMSI weather meeting.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting graphic from Cliff Mass...

 

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS pretty much washes out the Sunday front... have not seen that scenario yet. Probably not going to be the reality.

 

Focus will now shift to the fantasy land stuff after 300 hours.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod Hill sees the pattern change coming and more!!

 

https://www.kgw.com/article/weather/6-weeks-of-rain-and-snow-on-thanksgiving-winter-coming-to-portland/283-93e41962-1793-4de6-b2e0-700645a4b76a

I love his confidence!

[snow_wizard]

Agreed but I'd prefer it hold off til closer to Thanksgiving as earlier events tend to be more Washington-based like 2006 and 2017.

 

And even 2014 for that matter.  WA normally owns Portland for November events.

[Omegaraptor]

And even 2014 for that matter.  WA normally owns Portland for November events.

 

1985

[snow_wizard]

The 18z tries to hold onto blocking off the West Coast for a longer time and gets decently chilly.  After that a 978 tracks inland across the WA / OR border.  I love suppressed jet!

[snow_wizard]

1985

 

Nov 1985 was utterly amazing up here.  Still my favorite month on the whole.  It was easily as anomalous as January 1950 for how early it occurred.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod Hill is the best ever. Period.

I know he rubs some people the wrong way but I think that's just his personality. He's very passionate and extremely knowledgeable about weather and our climate here in the PNW. Steve, Mark and Rod are the three most talented meteorologists here in town IMHO. We're fortunate enough to have all three of them. Each one adds a little something different to the table.

[Requiem]

I know he rubs some people the wrong way but I think that's just his personality. He's very passionate and extremely knowledgeable about weather and our climate here in the PNW. Steve, Mark and Rod are the three most talented meteorologists here in town IMHO. We're fortunate enough to have all three of them. Each one adds a little something different to the table.

 

I really liked Bruce Sussman as well. Mark is still the most accurate IMO

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yikes!

 

Cat’s out of the bag... I AM ROD HILL.

I knew it! You both live in Clark County.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Big time ensemble improvement. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is pretty crazy....

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBVO.html

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I went for 12/2 on the forecast contest at the OMSI weather meeting.

1/9, a special date in both 1880 and 1950.

[High Desert Mat?]

I know he rubs some people the wrong way but I think that's just his personality. He's very passionate and extremely knowledgeable about weather and our climate here in the PNW. Steve, Mark and Rod are the three most talented meteorologists here in town IMHO. We're fortunate enough to have all three of them. Each one adds a little something different to the table.

Don’t forget about Rhonda Shelby. She was one of the greats.

[Cloud]

This is pretty crazy....

 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBVO.html

What’s typically classified as “Unknown Precip”?? Lumpy rain perhaps?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I see Anchorage is running a +14 departure on the month...

Today is the 20th straight day of at least a +10 departure.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1194025982509764615

[TacomaWaWx]

54/47 here today. Nice day overall.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Very interesting write up by Scott Sistek at KOMO, which points back to this blogpost from Cliff Mass.

 

They discuss using unmanned "saildrones" positioned along the West Coast to better predict oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific with the hope of bettering our forecasts and getting more pertinent, accurate, pinpointed data than the current buoy system provides.

 

Here is the webpage for the data the 5 saildrones are sending back. A sixth saildrone should be deployed this week.

Super interesting stuff and something to keep an eye on in the future.

That's some encouraging news. I can see those saildrones helping with systems forming out over the ocean. For example, those snowstorms back in February 2014 could have been forecasted more in advance with better data.

[Guest CulverJosh]

That's some encouraging news. I can see those saildrones helping with systems forming out over the ocean. For example, those snowstorms back in February 2014 could have been forecasted more in advance with better data.

Cliff Mass mentioned the drones at the Omsi meeting. Concerned at how durable they will be. Go Hawks!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I really liked Bruce Sussman as well. Mark is still the most accurate IMO

Oh yeah, Bruce was a good one too. It was sad when KOIN decided to not renew his contract. He went up to Seattle for a bit but I think he's back down here with KATU.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Oh yeah, Bruce was a good one too. It was sad when KOIN decided to not renew his contract. He went up to Seattle for a bit but I think he's back down here with KATU.

Bruce was a bit of a wishcaster but probably why we liked him.

[Omegaraptor]

That's some encouraging news. I can see those saildrones helping with systems forming out over the ocean. For example, those snowstorms back in February 2014 could have been forecasted more in advance with better data.

 

What about 1/10/17? 

[Phil]

Hmmm, maybe the key then is to have both October and November be cold. Here is another post he tweeted about on the subject. Again this is all speculative but maybe there is something there.

 

Brian Brettschneider @Climatologist49

 

Pearson's correlation coefficient of Oct-Nov temps and Dec-Feb temps using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (detrended). Orange colors (>+0.2) are positive relationships; i.e., warm Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to warm Dec-Feb and cold Oct-Nov is somewhat correlated to cold Dec-Feb.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1193696829860302848

FWIW, +0.2 is a weak correlation. It’s not statistically significant. The November-alone correlation is much stronger in most places.

 

It’s mostly a function of time..IE: a cold November may correlate to a cold winter, but December’s correlation will be much stronger..due to what is (usually) a continuation of the system state producing said cold..the closer you are to DJF, the more likely that background state is to survive/persist before changing.

[TT-SEA]

00Z run washes out the Sunday front like the 18Z run.

[Gradient Keeper]

10 Day Rainfall Totals. Any appreciable pattern change delayed at least on the GFS.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 is entirely different.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Flipping back to -PNA in just 8-10 days? Hmmm....

 

[TacomaWaWx]

LETS GOOOOO seahawks! Fireworks are booming here in Tacoma awesome night!!

[High Desert Mat?]

Flipping back to -PNA in just 8-10 days? Hmmm....

 

I look at those and know we want the pna negative but what about the e others? And also what about the pdo? Don’t we want that to go below 0 as well?