12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider

[GDR]

The king for the win! That’s why you don’t trust the gfs. Trump needs to make the GFS great again!

[jaster220]

The NAM tonight had a great run so there is still hope for ya.  It should cut more than what the GFS showed tonight.

 

Agree with you there. The NAM has not let me down this season actually. It was a tad light wrt this recent LES, but that's much more localized. If this were Feb, I'd lean towards suppression tracks, but it's the very early season with WAA usually winning out around these parts. Not writing this off at this range due to one run. 

[bud2380]

00z GEFS mean is well north of the Op model.

[bud2380]

And now the euro is further north. Stupid models.

[bud2380]

The euro shifted at least 100-150 miles north with the 1” line. Its all the way to just south of Iowa city. Versus the 12z run that was south of the Iowa border.

[snowstorm83]

EPS has ticked north a bit. 2" line is generally along 1-80. GFS and Euro actually agree with the latest suite, meeting in the middle. Which of course puts Lincoln on the edge like usual. 

[Tom]

Never been a huge fan of the RPM tbh. Seems stingy further east. Maybe they just don't run it out far enough for mby?? 

 

Hey, the NAM looks sweet eh? I trust it at that range even more than some globals (GEM, ICON). I think you called this buddy, super fun winter of tracking systems is upon us! 

I've always liked the RPM model once inside 48 hours, sorta like the NAM and the rest of the SR models.  The model goes out to 84 hours I believe. 

 

Meantime, even though we are now riding on the northern edge of this system, I think the best thing to do is ridge the ensembles at this point.  00z Euro has shift N 100's of miles over the last 4 runs.

 

 

 

 

06z GFS....

 

 

 

 

00z Canadian...

 

 

 

 

 

 

00z GEFS....

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS upped the ante for Clinton and into N IL...NE/S IA peeps do well...

 

[Tom]

The rock steady GEFS continue to show a TX Pan Handle cutter in the works...this has to be one of my fav storm tracks and a common one this season.

 

Looks like the 00z EPS caved towards the GEFS...not often you see this happen in the model world...

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

00z EPS mean

[Clinton]

6z GFS mean

[Tom]

00z EPS mean

There it is!  Now, that's the run I was looking for...thanks for posting...to see the EPS cave to the GEFS is rather interesting.  In the future, this will be a great learning curve if we are tracking a storm and the GFS/GEFS shows similar behavior.  

[Clinton]

SREF is way north

[Clinton]

There it is!  Now, that's the run I was looking for...thanks for posting...to see the EPS cave to the GEFS is rather interesting.  In the future, this will be a great learning curve if we are tracking a storm and the GFS/GEFS shows similar behavior.  

Quite the win for the GEFS if all goes right.  Putting this in the notes!

[Tom]

Based on what I'm seeing now, I'd be thrilled to score a 3-5" event...there could be more near the lake if it gets involved but that's going to be questionable as 850's aren't terribly cold.  You never know with these marginal Lehs set ups as sometimes the low level moisture gets thrown into the mix.

[Clinton]

Based on what I'm seeing now, I'd be thrilled to score a 3-5" event...there could be more near the lake if it gets involved but that's going to be questionable as 850's aren't terribly cold.  You never know with these marginal Lehs set ups as sometimes the low level moisture gets thrown into the mix.

I think you have a good chance at getting there.  I'm hoping for similar amounts here.  Ratios are looking good for me, temps should be in the 20-25 range.

[Tom]

I think you have a good chance at getting there.  I'm hoping for similar amounts here.  Ratios are looking good for me, temps should be in the 20-25 range.

I like the fact that temps are below freezing leading up to the event that'll freeze up the ground and cool ground temps.  This will aid in quick accumulations.  Hopefully today we see the op runs come in juicer and line up with some of those ensemble members being shown in both the GEFS/EPS.

[Clinton]

Friday morning already off to a good start with the 6z Euro coming in more juiced for MBY.  Only 90hr

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco:  Model mayhem continues.

 

The potential for snow incr Sat night as a stronger wave is set
to traverse the region over the second half of the weekend. There
remains considerable uncertainty regarding details during this
time as models are not in very good agreement. 00Z runs seemed to
possibly be converging on a more southern solution that the EC
has been showing for quite some time, but the latest 06Z runs of
NAM/GFS are once again further N. In fact, the 06Z NAM has less
than an inch across north central KS where the 00Z EC has 2-4".
The 06Z GFS/NAM runs also bring in meaningful pcpn much earlier
(Sat night) compared to the EC (Sun aftn). So obviously, there`s
plenty of details to be worked out over the coming 24-48hrs.
Envision near criteria level snow amounts of 2-4" somewhere over
the CWA

[Clinton]

6z EC

[jaster220]

Based on what I'm seeing now, I'd be thrilled to score a 3-5" event...there could be more near the lake if it gets involved but that's going to be questionable as 850's aren't terribly cold.  You never know with these marginal Lehs set ups as sometimes the low level moisture gets thrown into the mix.

 

Nice that we're getting honed in on a track (one of the best ones for our region). Unfortunate that it's so progressive and weak. Not sure I'd even get a headline from my office, especially if it's not also hitting GR proper. Clinton and N MO. Peeps benefit from a slight pivot, then it shoots northeast awfully quick without deepening anything like prior runs were showing. Let's hope the very short range slows and amp's this a bit. I'm fine with a replacement of the 2" snow cover I got from the LES Tues, but per the thread title this seemed to have much more potential. Going to be watching the NAM for trends in that regard. Happy Friday to ya amigo! 

[Clinton]

Nice that we're getting honed in on a track (one of the best ones for our region). Unfortunate that it's so progressive and weak. Not sure I'd even get a headline from my office, especially if it's not also hitting GR proper. Clinton and N MO. Peeps benefit from a slight pivot, then it shoots northeast awfully quick without deepening anything like prior runs were showing. Let's hope the very short range slows and amp's this a bit. I'm fine with a replacement of the 2" snow cover I got from the LES Tues, but per the thread title this seemed to have much more potential. Going to be watching the NAM for trends in that regard. Happy Friday to ya amigo! 

Jaster, just read Garys blog and he shows a picture of this storm on satellite and says this storm appears much stronger than what the models are showing.

 

"There is a chance of precipitation is increasing for Sunday.  It appears it will be in the form of snow, and there are still many questions as we have some new solutions this morning.  The GFS (American Model) backed off on snowfall totals, and the European Model had organization in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and thus had higher and wide spread amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range.  The storm in question is much stronger than some of the models are showing, as you can see here:"

http://www.tradeweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Screen-Shot-2019-12-13-at-7.48.39-AM.png

[jaster220]

Jaster, just read Garys blog and he shows a picture of this storm on satellite and says this storm appears much stronger than what the models are showing.

 

"There is a chance of precipitation is increasing for Sunday.  It appears it will be in the form of snow, and there are still many questions as we have some new solutions this morning.  The GFS (American Model) backed off on snowfall totals, and the European Model had organization in the upper levels of the atmosphere, and thus had higher and wide spread amounts in the 3 to 5 inch range.  The storm in question is much stronger than some of the models are showing, as you can see here:"

http://www.tradeweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/Screen-Shot-2019-12-13-at-7.48.39-AM.png

 

Thanks buddy! 

 

6z NAM has an initial wave hits Monday, and looks to be developing a 2nd wave on it's heels:

 

[Clinton]

Thanks buddy! 

 

6z NAM has an initial wave hits Monday, and looks to be developing a 2nd wave on it's heels:

 

20191213 6z NAM h78.png

SREF looks good for ya with snow still piling up in YBY at hr 87

[jaster220]

SREF looks good for ya with snow still piling up in YBY at hr 87

 

Thx for this. I do think seasonal/climo warmth will win out and the more northerly snow swath will win out. The moisture will stream north to find the cold. Seen this many times over the years, including Christmas Eve 2002 when all the forecasts had that storm staying way south and Marshall got 7 or 8"

[bud2380]

NAM coming in further north yet... getting closer for me, up to 4.3" in Iowa City

 

 

[jaster220]

NAM coming in further north yet... getting closer for me, up to 4.3" in Iowa City

 

 

 

Yeah, and goes to the zonal look. Better for you guys, worse for us eastward. Models continue their bouncing.  (nice holes in Iowa btw)

[Niko]

NOAA:

Next round of Pacific upper level energy/trough swinging through the
Four Corners region on Sunday will spin up another low pressure
system coming out of the southern Plains. This low looks to be
tracking close to the Ohio River on Monday, presenting an
opportunity for accumulating snow to impact southeast Michigan.
Magnitude of the surface wave remains in question, as 00z Euro is a
bit stronger and farther north compared GFS, but especially vs the
flatter Canadian/Icon solutions. None-the-less, GFS ensemble members
give the Euro plenty of support, and several members are even
farther north and deeper. Euro indicating 3-4 g/kg of specific
humidity in the 850-700 MB layer crossing the border which could
support several inches with the proper mid level FGEN, even with
less than ideal thermal profiles.

[snowstorm83]

NAM is reeling me in for sure. 12z GFS and Euro will be very telling of where this is headed. 

[Stormhunter87]

Wpc still sticking with KC target. 3k Nam supporting that too. NAM the outlier?

[Tom]

12z ICON trending stronger at the surface and 500mb...lets see where this runs goes...

[Tom]

Yup, it came in much more healthy looking...its even trying to phase this into a strong OHV cutter....severe wx down south???

[Clinton]

12z ICON 

[Niko]

Notice how the ICON makes a sudden move north.

[bud2380]

GFS just for giggles since it's basically as valuable as the old DGEX.

 

[Mi_Matthew]

Looks like the struggle with the models is which wave becomes dominant as the energy ejects out of the Rockies. 12z runs seem to have trended towards the second wave which is potentially good news for a pivot somewhere in the lower Great Lakes. Would also fit the early seasonal trend of the longwave trough mentioned in earlier posts.

[Clinton]

I am sitting on the southern edge of all the 12z models so far, not a great place to be.

[bud2380]

Canadian further north now as well.

 

 

[Clinton]

12z GFS mean most ensembles targeting KC area

[East Dubzz]

The early start to the snow season and now lull is going exactly as I expected.