Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Arctic air a notch or two further south in BC by Saturday morning.

For the newbies:

 

[kokaneekidz]

That's bizarre.

 

Clear positive splat test at my house in Everett this morning on the way to work.

I experienced the same lumpy rain around 8AM this morning leaving Mukilteo en route to Tulalip for Cedar Basket Weaving, once I got down to DT Everett it was 5 degrees warmer than Boeing Freeway. Such is life in the PSCZ

[GHweatherChris]

Does anyone have the video captioned with forum members going over models? Would be a good instructional video for new members!!

[runninthruda206]

Does anyone have the video captioned with forum members going over models? Would be a good instructional video for new members!!

Would love this!

[Front Ranger]

Arctic front about 50 mi further south by Sunday morning compared to 12z.

[runninthruda206]

Bellingham gets hammered Sunday wow

[Deweydog]

Karate Kid III is on. It’s terrible but it was released in 1989.

[Front Ranger]

Heavy snow with Arctic front.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Arctic front about 50 mi further south by Sunday morning compared to 12z.

exactly the type of stuff you want to see leading up to a major event...timing sped up!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very pretty. Wow what a classic looking storm track.

[Perturbed Member]

Middle finger to WA county as usual

 

[wxmet]

Nice improvement with the track of the surface low on Sunday for a regional event. Could use a couple notches south but good trend.

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow so Sunday could be a lot snowier than we thought around the Seattle area. Maybe more than just a dusting to an inch with the Arctic front.

[seattleweatherguy]

Wow so Sunday could be a lot snowier than we thought around the Seattle area. Maybe more than just a dusting to an inch with the Arctic front.

 

A good start to the new year and for the weeks ahead!

[bainbridgekid]

18z a good notch South with Sunday's system. Brings it about through Everett compared to Vancouver, BC on the 12z.

[jakerepp]

504 line down to Puget Sound by late Monday evening. 

[TacomaWaWx]

GFS just keeps getting colder.

 

It'll stop getting colder eventually...right?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z a good notch South with Sunday's system. Brings it about through Everett compared to Vancouver, BC on the 12z.

Going to take a track about like November 2010 i bet. Maybe further south.

[Front Ranger]

This run is looking more like the 6z.

[bainbridgekid]

The arctic front/backwash behind the low Sunday is exactly the type of system models struggle immensely with.

 

I would bet on there being more moisture around in that airmass Sunday evening than modeled rather than less.

[TT-SEA]

I'm extremely looking forward to Sunday.

 

High temp of 47 at Noon in Seattle and by 2PM it's already 30 degrees. 17 degree drop in 2 hours!

 

Then add this baby into the mix and it promises to be a dynamic, exciting day.

 

 

 

Just to keep it real... the ice box 12Z ECMWF showed temps still above freezing for the Seattle area at 10 p.m. on Sunday night and the wind still from the SW.

[TT-SEA]

This run is looking more like the 6z.

 

 

Often the case for whatever reason.  

[bainbridgekid]

Just to keep it real... the ice box 12Z ECMWF showed temps still above freezing for the Seattle area at 10 p.m. on Sunday night and the wind still from the SW.

That's because it brought the low in much further North around Vancouver which delayed the cold by about 6-10 hours.

[Front Ranger]

Ungodly east side cold.

[TT-SEA]

That's because it brought the low in much further North around Vancouver which delayed the cold by about 6-10 hours.

 

Right.

 

And the 00Z GFS will likely shift north again.

 

The 18Z and 06Z runs always seem to do these jumps... no idea why.

[mjb]

Does anyone have the video captioned with forum members going over models? Would be a good instructional video for new members!!

that video is so frick'n funny !!!        Iw

[Front Ranger]

The arctic front/backwash behind the low Sunday is exactly the type of system models struggle immensely with.

 

I would bet on there being more moisture around in that airmass Sunday evening than modeled rather than less.

 

Yeah, with an actual Arctic front crashing down the Sound, no way that snowfall map would be accurate for the Seattle area.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[bainbridgekid]

Right.

 

And the 00Z GFS will likely shift north again.

 

The 18Z and 06Z runs always seem to do these jumps... no idea why.

More than likely it will strengthen a bit more than modeled and come in a bit further North rather than trend South unfortunately, I agree.

[TacomaWaWx]

Let's hope this low ends up near or a little farther south than being projected currently.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wet snow falling this pleasant afternoon. Many will disagree, but this is my favorite type of snow.     

[Deweydog]

Does have some striking similarities to November 2010.

[GHweatherChris]

that video is so frick'n funny !!! Iw

Big time, I am trying to find it.

[TacomaWaWx]

Right.

 

And the 00Z GFS will likely shift north again.

 

The 18Z and 06Z runs always seem to do these jumps... no idea why.

if it does go further south then oh boy it's on.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here comes big daddy for mid week

[bainbridgekid]

Cold is definitely a couple notches less extreme this run than the 12z.

 

Still amazing though.

[Perturbed Member]

Midweek low looks like its a hair north of the 12z

 

[Randyc321]

Just to keep it real... the ice box 12Z ECMWF showed temps still above freezing for the Seattle area at 10 p.m. on Sunday night and the wind still from the SW.

 

Question-  Why after it was the straggler to come into line with the others, is the Euro now being used as a priority criterion for temperature forecasts?  Wouldn't the others be more reasonable since they were onto the pattern first?

[BLI snowman]

18z definitely looking a little less intense down this way, more of a glancing blow.

[Front Ranger]

Does have some striking similarities to November 2010.

 

Considering that brought a high of 25 to SEA, it actually seems more than possible this air mass could pull off a high of 20.