Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Flash freeze. That shows rain and mixed precip around Bellingham in the morning. Teens by afternoon and single digits by evening

I remember something similar to that in November 2010 but what's being modeled looks more extreme currently. Maybe the extreme cold will get watered down as we get closer but it hasn't happened at all yet.

[bainbridgekid]

The track of Sunday's system is going to be hugely important for Seattle area snow.

 

If it tracks through the sound or just to our South like the 00z and 6z GFS, we will go into this coldwave with widespread snowcover. If it comes in North like the 12z GFS, we will have to rely on convergence along the arctic front behind the system that evening and snow cover would likely be more spotty.

 

Obviously more opportunities for snow next week, but going into it with snow makes things far less stressful.

[runninthruda206]

The track of Sunday's system is going to be hugely important for Seattle area snow.

 

If it tracks through the sound or just to our South like the 00z and 6z GFS, we will go into this coldwave with widespread snowcover. If it comes in North like the 12z GFS, we will have to rely on convergence along the arctic front behind the system that evening and snow cover would likely be more spotty.

 

Obviously more opportunities for snow next week, but going into it with snow makes things far less stressful.

Agreed. I need that snow cover next week. Don’t wanna wait till wed/thurs

[Front Ranger]

Not surprisingly, at 72 hours the Euro is looking a lot more like the GFS compared to its 12z from yesterday.

[BLI snowman]

Update!!

 

Looks like PDX actually made it to 42 this morning.

 

#30’sfree20’s

 

They might just skip the 30s and go straight for the 20s early next week. 40 to 29 in a true flash freeze scenario.

[Deweydog]

A lot more riding on this particular cold snap than others given the fact a lot of our younger members will be drafted shortly thereafter.

[Omegaraptor]

12/5 forecast in Omak next Tuesday!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nice improvement with the block by D4.

 

12z today:

 

 

 

12z yesterday:

Yeah colder.

 

[Front Ranger]

Nice improvement with the block by D4.

 

12z today:

 

 

 

12z yesterday:

 

PV lobe way closer. Nice.

[runninthruda206]

Still looks warm in Seattle Sunday night on the euro? Or am I seeing that wrong

[Front Ranger]

At least on the 500mb level, GFS continues to lead the way as we get into the short/mid range. A pleasant surprise.

[bainbridgekid]

Still looks warm in Seattle Sunday night on the euro? Or am I seeing that wrong

Cold comes blasting in Sunday evening.

[jakerepp]

Still looks warm in Seattle Sunday night on the euro? Or am I seeing that wrong

Colder, but still borderline at 4pm. 

[Cloud]

Still looks warm in Seattle Sunday night on the euro? Or am I seeing that wrong

It's colder at the surface but not cold enough for snow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Way colder on monday.

[Deweydog]

Our “first” Arctic outbreak of the season on the way???

 

https://katu.com/news/local/stormy-this-week-then-seasons-first-arctic-blast-coming-next

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am going to put together a January 1909 post later. Wow that thing was something else. 

[runninthruda206]

Cold tues morning but that low is too far south

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here's total snow for the weekend. Not amazing, but better than the 00z.

 

 

Pretty good chance we go into this thing with snow on the ground up here. 

[El_Nina]

Here's total snow for the weekend. Not amazing, but better than the 00z.

 

That's showing some over the east metro hills. That wasn't there before.

[jakerepp]

This could really be an incredible week. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Good news is that Oregon needs the rain! 

 

 

I, personally, like the looks of that map quite a bit. But it doesn’t matter. It was clown range. Yesterday the maps showed me mostly getting skunked while all the goodies passed to my south. The outlooks will change again, count on it. There’s no way to tell exactly where that system will hit until next week.

[Skagit Weather]

Euro has some pretty cold highs on Tuesday...even if the temperature map is "always 5 degrees too cold."

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

Off to the races!!!

[Perturbed Member]

The mid week low is further south as expected with the trough pushing further south. 

 

12z

 

00z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would like to see it trend a little colder down here, but this would work. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Fair amount colder by Wednesday morning.

 

Yeah, stronger CRB Cold Pool.

 

Here it comes!

 

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting that basically every 12z GFS Ensemble member bring Sunday's low in South of Seattle. Actually trended South of the 6z and 0z which is the opposite of the operational which brings it through Vancouver, BC.

 

 

[Cloud]

EURO not backing down!

It's pretty amazing to me to see numbers like these both sides of the mountains. These are typically locked over the other side. 

[Perturbed Member]

Interesting that basically every 12z GFS Ensemble member bring Sunday's low in South of Seattle. Actually trended South of the 6z and 0z which is the opposite of the operational which brings it through Vancouver, BC.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_wus_18.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_wus_19.png

They are technically different models, at least partially.

[Perturbed Member]

[TT-SEA]

I am back.

 

Looks cold!

 

Not much snow going into the cold though... and the Wednesday storm is farther south at least initially.

[TT-SEA]

Good Lord...

 

[Cloud]

Day 8. WOW. 

[Front Ranger]

Wow, odds of a legit, top tier, mid winter Arctic outbreak have gone WAY up over the past 24 hours.

 

Awesome to see.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It seems like over the past decade we really struggle to get the moisture.  We might get a few inches, which I can’t complain about, but folks south are getting 8-12”+

 

As you said, it’s in clown range but recent history is not our friend.

 

Recent history has also been that cold spells no longer happen in January like they used to.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[HighlandExperience]

Here's 24-hour totals ending 10PM Wednesday.

 

Looks like phantom snow. Mossman going to have to replace his plow with an ice scraper

[jakerepp]

Here's 24-hour totals ending 10PM Wednesday.

 

<_>