Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

I updated my wife on her new options for next week:

 

1)  Snow Sunday and then brutal, pipe-bursting, car won't start type of cold... but dry.

 

2)  Snow Sunday and then slightly warmer with 3 feet of snow driven by a 50 mph east wind.

 

 

She is refused to pick and she is not happy about the remaining options and wants to know what happened to the '38-degree rain and life goes on normally' option.    I told her to file a complaint with Mother Nature.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If these model trends continue I am going to have to send out a memo to the employees by Friday. 

[snow_wizard]

If the 6z GFS were to verify we could be looking at some places dropping to zero if it clears out and decouples.  -30 daily departures could be possible.  True old school stuff!

[jakerepp]

Temps -40 or colder

 

Alaska

Chalkyitsik -51

Fort Yukon -49

Tanana -49

Nikolai -49

Allakakeet -48

Kaiyuh -48

McGrath -47

Umiat -45

Eagle -45

Bettles -44

Chena River -43

Kaltag -42

Selawik -41

Nenana -40

Fairbanks -40

 

Yukon

Satah River -49

Old Crow -45

 

Northwest Territories

Fort Good Hope -48

Rae Lakes -47

Norman Wells -47

Lac La Martre -45

So, it cold?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If the 6z GFS were to verify we could be looking at some places dropping to zero if it clears out and decouples. -30 daily departures could be possible. True old school stuff!

Never experienced a temp below 12F. Was out of town when all of them happened. Maybe this time?

[Requiem]

06z kinda guts the midweek low— I’d be willing to sacrifice a bit of cold to get that on the wetter side again. Crazy cold though!

[Prairiedog]

Never experienced a temp below 12F. Was out of town when all of them happened. Maybe this time?

In 2012 I had two mornings of 8.  Really cold for this area.  I've had some low teens on and off but single digits are plenty rare for most of the north valley.  I don't have records but if I did have single digits,  '72 or '89 maybe.  Before that I do remember ''68 I'm pretty sure (could be wrong.  Memory is the second thing to go at my age)

[jakerepp]

In 2012 I had two mornings of 8.  Really cold for this area.  I've had some low teens on and off but single digits are plenty rare for most of the north valley.  I don't have records but if I did have single digits,  '72 or '89 maybe.  Before that I do remember ''68 I'm pretty sure (could be wrong.  Memory is the second thing to go at my age)

I had a -9 in Nampa, ID when I was in school there. That's pretty cold. I think the coldest I got to growing up in Monroe was 8 or 9 maybe. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In 2012 I had two mornings of 8. Really cold for this area. I've had some low teens on and off but single digits are plenty rare for most of the north valley. I don't have records but if I did have single digits, '72 or '89 maybe. Before that I do remember ''68 I'm pretty sure (could be wrong. Memory is the second thing to go at my age)

68-69 probly. That one was the best regional burying of the 20th century with crazy cold around it.

[Prairiedog]

68-69 probly. That one was the best regional burying of the 20th century with crazy cold around it.

I think that's right. I had 6f.  I lived in La Grande in '72-73.  Had one morning of -12f.  That was my coldest.  If you count windchills, had -20f up at Crown Point during a wind event.  Man, that was frickin cold!

[GHweatherChris]

I updated my wife on her new options for next week:

 

1) Snow Sunday and then brutal, pipe-bursting, car won't start type of cold... but dry.

 

2) Snow Sunday and then slightly warmer with 3 feet of snow driven by a 50 mph east wind.

 

 

She is refused to pick and she is not happy about the remaining options and wants to know what happened to the '38-degree rain and life goes on normally' option. I told her to file a complaint with Mother Nature.

You need to get her in line and quick.

[ShawniganLake]

Roughly 4.5 days until the good stuff gets here. So probably another 36hrs of tense model runs trying to avoid the rug pull

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like 45F out there. Down from 54F around midnight. Nice cloudy morning.

[wxmet]

GFS getting too cold. Still hoping for some slight moderation as the event draws near.

[FroYoBro]

GFS getting too cold. Still hoping for some slight moderation as the event draws near.

It always happens.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 6 850s

 

COLD!

[joelgombiner]

Why are there so many white pixels on the 850 maps?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Omegaraptor]

GFS getting too cold. Still hoping for some slight moderation as the event draws near.

 

I'd rather have a moderate Arctic blast and tons of snow than a top-tier one with 3" of snow. Doesn't mean that the latter isn't exciting though.

[ShawniganLake]

Why are there so many white pixels on the 850 maps?

Those grid spaces have terrain higher than the 850mb level. Mountains

[Esquimalt]

ICON sends the midweek low way north and strong

[Omegaraptor]

Why are there so many white pixels on the 850 maps?

 

Pretty sure you're referring to how Tropical Tidbits handles mountain areas. At a certain elevation the 850 level is below the ground level so there's no 850 temperature.

[joelgombiner]

Oh I think it must be zones of higher terrain above the 850 pressure level

[ShawniganLake]

The ICON model flailed this morning.

[ewnichols25]

Just catching up... WOW

[Skagit Weather]

Cold is taking longer to arrive on the GFS 12z...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6z GFS Ensembles

850mb Temps

 

 

Portland: Solid modified arctic blast! Mean temp -13c, Cluster to -15c. January 17th 850s warm to -5c, but there are several colder members through the 21st.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Seattle: Impressive Arctic blast! Mean temp -15.5c, Cluster to -17c. 850s do not warm to -5c until January 21st. Many cold members through the 22nd.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Yakima: MAJOR to Severe arctic blast: Mean temp -21c, Cluster to -24c. 850s do not warm to -10c until January 19th and -5c until the 21st. A lot of cold members to -15c through the 21st.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

 

Vancouver BC: Solid arctic blast! Mean temp -16c, Cluster to -19c. 850s do not warm above -10c until January 17th and only reach -5c on the 23rd. Many cold members through the 22nd.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Incredible looking ensembles.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Rod Hill has Tues at 33/24 and snow showers. Time for Mark to test the waters. He knows better not to jump too soon but it's inside his 7-day now.

Excited to see Rod's next video update!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GFS for Sunday night.

 

[TT-SEA]

The ICON model flailed this morning.

 

 

Wow... you aren't kidding.

 

Almost a non-event on the 12Z ICON.

[FroYoBro]

12z GFS shows the system Monday night going through central Oregon.

 

Good potential for snow in Portland then. Intense arctic air sweeps in behind it!

[MossMan]

Wow... you aren't kidding.

 

Almost a non-event on the 12Z ICON.

Good thing it’s the ICON.

[TT-SEA]

Good thing it’s the ICON.

 

That is probably the last model I would trust in this situation.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GFS shows the system Monday night going through central Oregon.

 

Good potential for snow in Portland then. Intense arctic air sweeps in behind it!

Yeah, nice.

 

[Prairiedog]

Excited to see Rod's next video update!

While not infallible, most interested in what Mark has to say.  He's been cautious as usual.  No surprised there.  Times drawing nigh for him to jump or not. 

[Front Ranger]

Yep, 12z not as cold and quite a bit snowier.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Shipotofsky is on board in EUG. Saying a pattern change is appearing more likely with a wintry mix down to lower elevations.

[jakerepp]

12z looks very nice for just about everyone. Portland looks to get slammed....dangit.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

PDX!!! PDX!!!

 

Y'all have waited long enough.

[Front Ranger]

We've lost the ICON!!!