Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

00z EPS 850 mean anywhere from 2-5 degrees colder than 12z by Sunday night.

 

The GFS outperformed the EPS on this....assuming it verifies.  WTF?

[HighlandExperience]

WRF for fun

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile Alaska isn't exactly roasting while we're experience our coldest conditons. The PV seems to be in the driver's seat with this upcoming event, doesn't happen often:

 

 

The PV is why the low level cold is going to be so intense.  We could see this trend even colder as incredible as that sounds.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The WRF is the coldest I've ever seen, with widespread 0 to 4F lows for the Puget Sound region on Wednesday.  It also shows a nice snow on Sunday.  I was going to post pics, but that site doesn't allow you to easily save them.

 

Those 925mb temperatures: 

[MossMan]

Currently pouring and 40 degrees. .43” on the day.

[Requiem]

We could see some serious freezing spray issues in many areas. Powerful offshore winds combined with very cold temperatures could pose a problem...

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm exhausted. I might be up later to check the 6z.... If not I will see you all for 12z.

[Omegaraptor]

Geez though, does W7ENK from the Fox12 place post on here? In terms of pessimism he makes the most pessimistic person here look like SnowWiz.

LMAO, that Ziggy guy too who is so convinced that it will only snow in the foothills and up that he would probably bet his house on it.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS outperformed the EPS on this....assuming it verifies.  WTF?

 

 

GFS is the clear winner.   The EPS painted a broad brush and showed a very strong and consistent cold signal for next week... which was correct but its finally catching up to the intensity of it.

[Deweydog]

Still 48 at PDX. Freezing spray not quite yet an issue.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last time I saw W7ENK was about 3 years ago now. He came over for my buddies birthday party and fired his guns and shot off some flares at 2am. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Better than a burning spray

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm exhausted. I might be up later to check the 6z.... If not I will see you all for 12z.

 

Fuckk you! When I get up at 6 I better see where you posted updates on the 06z. Lol

[Requiem]

LMAO, that Ziggy guy too who is so convinced that it will only snow in the foothills and up that he would probably bet his house on it.

 

Ziggy is a recurring troll, to my belief. That's another reason why I barely post there anymore-- so many trolls.

[Gradient Keeper]

Fuckk you! When I get up at 6 I better see where you posted updates on the 06z. Lol

Might be a change of plans.... I cannot bend my knee or walk worth a crap.... Which means I sleep off/on on the couch next to my laptop. I dunno......

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.61" of rain in the bucket today.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS does a little better job of holding onto the cold longer than the 12z.  Nice step in the right direction on that.  It keeps heights up over AK for a longer time.

[snow_wizard]

Soooo.  Looks like fun times coming!

[TT-SEA]

The EPS does a little better job of holding onto the cold longer than the 12z. Nice step in the right direction on that. It keeps heights up over AK for a longer time.

Yeah... trying to stay up for it and it's definitely slower to eradicate the cold.

 

Still goes zonal in the 10-15 day period though.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The AO index continues to be very positive going into this oncoming blast, proof we don't necessarily need tanking AO to get a blast in this region.

 

[TT-SEA]

One more note... the control run decided it better get on board tonight as well.

 

[wxmet]

EPS low locations for mid-week storm. Besides the northern fringe, most of these would be nice for WA.

 

Looks like most of these head somewhere on either side of the Columbia in the next few frames.

 

The GEFS is also further north than the OP which is encouraging.

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

For those interested in what Cliff Mass has to say:

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

 

Still being pretty conservative and essentially ignoring the crazy long-range GFS models we've seen.

[Perturbed Member]

EPS low locations for mid-week storm. Besides the northern fringe, most of these would be nice for WA.

 

Looks like most of these head somewhere on either side of the Columbia in the next few frames.

 

The majority of those would work for both OR and WA, at least for producing a few inches I think. Hopefully those far north ones don't happen.

 

That cluster that goes close to the Oregon coast would absolutely bury PDX of course. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

Raining and accumulating here.

[Deweydog]

Sunday’s 18z GFS in 109 hours and 31 minutes.

[snow_wizard]

A few interesting tidbits.

 

1. The last time SEA had a high of 25 in January was 1982 and the last sub 25 was in 1969.

 

2. The EPS control was the first model to really pick up on the Alberta PV so that model does have some value.

 

3. The EPS control shows another sub 520 ULL over WA on day 9.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What did I miss?

[Omegaraptor]

What did I miss?

ECMWF is good now

[snow_wizard]

What did I miss?

 

A lot.

[bainbridgekid]

What did I miss?

Cold.

[snow_wizard]

For those interested in what Cliff Mass has to say:

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/

 

Still being pretty conservative and essentially ignoring the crazy long-range GFS models we've seen.

 

I can see being conservative about snowfall for now, but the cold looks pretty well set and maybe historic.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow things really could not have gone much better with the models tonight.

[TT-SEA]

A few interesting tidbits.

 

1. The last time SEA had a high of 25 in January was 1982 and the last sub 25 was in 1969.

 

2. The EPS control was the first model to really pick up on the Alberta PV so that model does have some value.

 

3. The EPS control shows another sub 520 ULL over WA on day 9.

That is first stat is amazing... did not realize it had been so long.

[TacomaWaWx]

I can see being conservative about snowfall for now, but the cold looks pretty well set and maybe historic.

when would be the last year cold of this magnitude came to Western Washington?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What did I miss?

Tim freaked out. In a good snow loving way.

[seattleweatherguy]

I can see being conservative about snowfall for now, but the cold looks pretty well set and maybe historic.

Historic would have to beat 1949/1950 and the all time record low of 0!

[Deweydog]

That is first stat is amazing... did not realize it had been so long.

Yeah, that one sticks out although off the top of my head PDX only has two since then. Both during strong lower-level outflow setups.