Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[kokaneekidz]

I found it hilarious!

The only part I found amusing was watching Forrest Gump aka Tom Hanks cringe.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[Deweydog]

Conflicting reports!!

[Phil]

I wouldn't be surprised if half the commenters on here were on the spectrum a bit

Hi Sounder.

[OysterPrintout]

Conflicting reports!!

 

I'm embarrassed but I laugh at this every time as people start spamming contradictory conclusions. Cracks me up.

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is fantastic too.  The end of the run strongly suggests the cold will continue for a while longer.  Nice phasing about to take place between two troughs right over us with a strong upstream block.  That's after the all of the glorious cold earlier in the run.

[Deweydog]

I'm embarrassed but I laugh at this every time as people start spamming contradictory conclusions. Cracks me up.

REAL TIME extrapolation!!!

[wxmet]

Out to 48 hours the GFS and ECMWF are in sync so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 Past 4 runs. Definitely better ridge connection tonight

 

[OysterPrintout]

REAL TIME extrapolation!!!

 

my favorite part is how we have members from BC to southern oregon on here and you can't even see where people are from on mobile so what's good for one can be bad for another and we even had that new guy from Arizona chiming in. Must be confusing as all hell to new people.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[wxmet]

Block looks a little better over AK at D3 than 12z yesterday.

 

 

PV is dislodging a bit more across NW Canada compared to last night's 00z run.

[Requiem]

my favorite part is how we have members from BC to southern oregon on here and you can't even see where people are from on mobile so what's good for one can be bad for another and we even had that new guy from Arizona chiming in. Must be confusing as all hell to new people.

 

Tucson guy confused me so much with at least a few of his posts haha

[jcmcgaffey]

First year here?

. Been on for a while but mostly like tracking rain:). Good region to do so...

[TT-SEA]

Block looks a little better over AK at D3 than 00z yesterday.

 

 

Definitely... the GFS has already won this model battle in that regard.    I am gaining GFS respect every day right now.

[ttt]

Most of us realize this at a logical level, but as you can see most of us are also probably a bit mentally off to be obsessively refreshing computer simulations of the atmosphere and arguing with other people about the minute details.

 

vin.png

An unspecified amount or number of weather nerds are known to suffer from a type of borderline personality disorder (BPD)

[Phil]

Extratropical SSTs have cooled recently thanks to the ongoing regime of atmospheric circulation.

 

Bears some resemblance to the late 1960s that also featured a multiyear +ENSO and saw the PMM flip from positive to negative a few years in front of the next multiyear niña (which in this case I presume will begin in the summer of 2021, but could in theory begin next fall/winter).

 

[IceKing]

Hi Sounder.

 

Ooo an inside joke?

 

Phil me in. I'm new

[kokaneekidz]

The CZ is directly overhead now and it is raining like cats and dogs right here. Feels cooler too , baby steps

[Deweydog]

Extratropical SSTs have cooled recently thanks to the ongoing regime of atmospheric circulation.

 

Bears some resemblance to the late 1960s that also featured a multiyear +ENSO and saw the PMM flip from positive to negative a few years in front of the next multiyear niña (which in this case I presume will begin in the summer of 2021, but could in theory begin next fall/winter).

 

Will this make the Euro dress up like the GFS?

[Jbolin]

The CZ is directly overhead now and it is raining like cats and dogs right here. Feels cooler too , baby steps

Saw my breath outside a bit ago, it's coming. 

[GHweatherChris]

950 line of 0 will be dancing the rest of this week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Cloud]

Block looks a little better over AK at D3 than 00z yesterday.

This is a clear trend towards the GFS for the Euro. The GFS has maintained its consistency on how it wants to connect that AK ridge. 

[wxmet]

PV is dislodging a bit more across NW Canada compared to last night's 00z run.

 

Even more obvious at 96hr.

[TT-SEA]

This is a clear trend towards the GFS for the Euro. The GFS has maintained its consistency on how it wants to connect that AK ridge. 

 

I can believe our tax dollars were actually put to effective use by the government.  

 

We built this new GFS!  

[Meatyorologist]

I can believe our tax dollars were actually put to effective use by the government.  

 

We built this new GFS!  

Can't help but feel a little bit patriotic about it... sorry canada 

[Requiem]

00z Euro at D4 looks closer to the GFS for that time-frame than it's 00z run last night.

 

Annoying that Tidbits doesn't allow one to compare between the 00z and the 12z.

[Phil]

Even more obvious at 96hr.

The wave guide axes upstream look improved for sure.

 

Not sure about the TPV dislodging sooner..I think it’s just farther west/not being shunted east..which is good.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM ensembles are currently running and looking improved so far. The mean is down to -8C at PDX by 10z Tuesday and the operational though lower than the mean at -12.3 is joined with several other ensemble members, some of which are colder. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Day 5 euro looks like gfs.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Annoying that Tidbits doesn't allow one to compare between the 00z and the 12z.

Pivotal does

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am seeing some improvements...

 

TONIGHT

 

PREVIOUS 

[Meatyorologist]

Wow so far this is a huge positive step. But will any disturbances take advantage of the closer cold air?

[wxmet]

The wave guide axes upstream look improved for sure.

 

Not sure about the TPV dislodging sooner..I think it’s just farther west/not being shunted east..which is good.

 

 

Further west aides in it getting dislodged in our direction vs getting shunted east and getting caught up with the southeast ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 past 4 runs

 

[TT-SEA]

Day 5 euro looks like gfs.

 

 

Totally.

 

It just does not show the snow north of Seattle that afternoon.   

 

[wxmet]

The surface low track is unfavorable for lowland snow but baby steps. This is still an improvement over previous runs. 

[Deweydog]

Still showing a high of 44 in Seattle and Portland on Sunday.

 

I think the GFS says PDX should be -7 at that point.