Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If this outflow continues and unfolds as moddled some of you younger people on here are going to shitt when you see what a real arctic front and outflow can do.

[snow_wizard]

Perhaps not, but I'll wager $3.29 it is quite a bit more aggressive with the arctic air.

 

We don't want too aggressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gosh, the FOX12WeatherBlog is the most glum and sad weather blog I've ever seen. Whew. Some regulars on there apparently not only haven't seen the models, but actively describe trends and synoptics that aren't even present on said runs. But I digress, even Mark is more positive than they are.

 

I bet WN7EK is leading the way.

[Requiem]

I bet WN7EK is leading the way.

 

Exactly who I'm referring to haha

[MikeInEverett]

ECMWF and GFS still have big differences in the long range.

But wow what an improvement.

[TacomaWaWx]

If this outflow continues and unfolds as moddled some of you younger people on here are going to shitt when you see what a real arctic front and outflow can do.

I've never seen anything like whats being modeled in my lifetime in person.

[HighlandExperience]

 

So busy looking at everything didn't even see this little gem.

 

 

Wow, the WRFGFS from the University of Washington shows 55-60 mph Fraser outflow around the San Juans on Sunday. Snowfall with the arctic front is 1-4 inches if this model verifies. #wawx pic.twitter.com/y4ScIPxaml— Jay Albrecht (@AlbrechtJay) January 8, 2020

That would be nice to get a real arctic front with this

[BLI snowman]

So the "warmer" model runs now are showing historic snow amounts with the overrunning storm mid-week as the low strays closer to us.

 

The colder models are showing heavy snow and yes, top tier cold for the middle of winter.

 

Not a bad position to be in at this point.

[MossMan]

I've never seen anything like whats being modeled in my lifetime in person.

If it lives up to some of the past ones that I have experienced...You are going to throughly enjoy it!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Deweydog]

Wow! Low 20s for afternoon temps on Wednesday. OMG!

 

That means snow ratios will be much higher than 10 to 1.

Tomorrow?

[Gradient Keeper]

I bet WN7EK is leading the way.

Ah..... Holm..... Cringe

[Perturbed Member]

So the 00z Euro has a total of 3 snow events. The arctic front, and 2 separate juicy lows dumping region wide snow. How often do you see that in a single run? The one at the end of the run looks real promising too.

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I've never seen anything like whats being modeled in my lifetime in person.

In 1990 you could drive anywhere around the sound that had north wind exposure and there was 3 inches of solid ice on the roads from freezing waves and spray. The spot where I checked out near Manchester on the kitsap peninsula had 8ft swells slamming the beach and there was ice hanging off the power lines from the freezing spray. 65mph gusts and temps in the teens with blowing and drifting snow. I will never forgot my dad telling me take all this in son because you might never see anything like this before. So far he's been correct.

[snow_wizard]

So the "warmer" model runs now are showing historic snow amounts with the overrunning storm mid-week as the low strays closer to us.

 

The colder models are showing heavy snow and yes, top tier cold for the middle of winter.

 

Not a bad position to be in at this point.

 

Boy did we earn it!  You know as well as I how awful January has been for way too long.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Snow ratios will be at least 15 to 1.  That means add at least 50% to the totals!

Get your sunglasses out. Here is the Kuchera snowfall totals.

 

[MossMan]

Tomorrow?

Timing has moved up.

[Requiem]

I really hope I get to experience something awesome and unheard of in my lifetime, but even just a little of this cold outflow and snow will make me so happy! Something so psychologically refreshing about a good snowstorm.

[snow_wizard]

I can't wait to feel the face numbing cold!

[snow_wizard]

Get your sunglasses out. Here is the Kuchera snowfall totals.

 

9-km ECMWF USA Surface Northwest US Kuchera Snowfall 240.png

 

Oh the colors!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I really hope I get to experience something awesome and unheard of in my lifetime, but even just a little of this cold outflow and snow will make me so happy! Something so psychologically refreshing about a good snowstorm.

Your life just started take all of it in you can and try to have as much fun as possible. Now get to f***** bed!

[MossMan]

In 1990 you could drive anywhere around the sound that had north wind exposure and there was 3 inches of solid ice on the roads from freezing waves and spray. The spot where I checked out near Manchester on the kitsap peninsula had 8ft swells slamming the beach and there was ice hanging off the power lines from the freezing spray. 65mph gusts and temps in the teens with blowing and drifting snow. I will never forgot my dad telling me take all this in son because you might never see anything like this before. So far he's been correct.

Almost every boat in a marina around Bellingham broke loose and crashed up against the shore in the massive outflow wind/waves. Crazy stuff! Also our lake house faces north, the waves were crashing over the dock and freezing, it was such a sight!!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 2 hours 18 minutes!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey let's not spike the football on the 20 yard line... I am looking at you Snow Wiz. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS for Tuesday... colder than 12Z run.    As expected at this point. 

 

[MossMan]

Better runs ahead!

[TacomaWaWx]

In 1990 you could drive anywhere around the sound that had north wind exposure and there was 3 inches of solid ice on the roads from freezing waves and spray. The spot where I checked out near Manchester on the kitsap peninsula had 8ft swells slamming the beach and there was ice hanging off the power lines from the freezing spray. 65mph gusts and temps in the teens with blowing and drifting snow. I will never forgot my dad telling me take all this in son because you might never see anything like this before. So far he's been correct.

would be amazing to see! It'll Happen again at some point maybe this will finally be the year.

[Gradient Keeper]

COLDER RUNS AHEAD

[TacomaWaWx]

COLDER RUNS AHEAD

pretty much everything is lining up now just right.

[MossMan]

Plumbers, HVAC techs, and auto body shops are starting to salivate as we speak!

[Requiem]

Geez though, does W7ENK from the Fox12 place post on here? In terms of pessimism he makes the most pessimistic person here look like SnowWiz.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS on Wednesday morning... classic overrunning snowstorm signature.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Geez though, does W7ENK from the Fox12 place post on here? In terms of pessimism he makes the most pessimistic person here look like SnowWiz.

I hope not. He's a turd.

 

12z GFS in 8 hours 12 minutes

[MossMan]

We all have DomeBusters NWS informant, and Rufus La Lone to thank!

[Front Ranger]

I am W7ENK.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is the coldest I've ever seen, with widespread 0 to 4F lows for the Puget Sound region on Wednesday.  It also shows a nice snow on Sunday.  I was going to post pics, but that site doesn't allow you to easily save them.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS at day 9.    It agrees very well with the ECMWF.    

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Meanwhile Alaska isn't exactly roasting while we're experience our coldest conditons. The PV seems to be in the driver's seat with this upcoming event, doesn't happen often: