Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Just Wednesday... wow!

 

Thats insane for Portland... and this is the ECMWF. 

 

 

[OysterPrintout]

LOCK THIS IN EVERYONE GO HOME

[Weiner Warrior]

Seattle 14 hrs straight snow

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I sense some very snowy maps coming for Wednesday.   Going to post those as well.  

NOT antichrist.

[Requiem]

So, EURO has done this before in regards to snow in PDX, but it's great that most models agree on that progression.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Timmy]

This run is ok I guess but I'd rather finish watching Darby O'Gill and the little people.

that movie freaked me out as a kid

[Perturbed Member]

This is the first suite of runs where really all of the big 3 are on board for the cold and at least some snow. Even the lesser models like the ICON and UKMET are onboard. 

 

GFS clearly the one still leading for this entire pattern change. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2-day total ending Wednesday afternoon.

 

 

Everyone would be happy.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This run is way drier... as expected with much more cold air.

 

Here is Tuesday morning...

 

 

Colder air isn't necessarily bad for snow, if it gets extremely cold at the upper levels it's not uncommon to get localized features popping up out of the instability. Pretty common to get a surface low popping up off the island with NE outflow from the Central BC Coast.

[Weiner Warrior]

More snow Thursday

[snow_wizard]

Major snow event on the 0z Euro Tuesday night!

[Cloud]

Just Wednesday... wow!

 

Thats insane for Portland... and this is the ECMWF. 

 

 

 

Question!!!! Phantom snow or no? Hmm... 

[MossMan]

Everyone is on board!!!!!

 

I would like to see my snow totals go up however.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Might be another one heading our way for the end of the run. Also this probably assumes 10:1 ratio, with colder temps I wonder if the real ratio might be higher?

[TacomaWaWx]

Things definitely have gotten A LOT more interesting now that the euro has moved into a better agreement with the gfs. We all thought the gfs was going to cave!

[wxmet]

The temperature profiles are nice too. Snowing with verbatim surface temperatures in the 20s region wide. We could do better than 10:1 ratios.

[TT-SEA]

By the way... this is the temperatures at 4 p.m. Wednesday.   That is powder down there!

 

20 degrees with 15 inches of snow during the day???  

 

[Weiner Warrior]

The Toe Nail doesn't lie

[snow_wizard]

Why was the ECMWF so blind to this for so long?  The GFS pwned it this time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Gradient Keeper]

WOW! Colder runs ahead!

[Requiem]

By the way... this the temperatures at 4 p.m. Wednesday.   That is powder down there!

 

20 degrees with 15 inches of snow during the day???  

 

 

The easterly flow advertised is ridiculous. Jay Albrecht just posted that the WRF showed gusts of 55-65 in BC along with snow and freezing spray for a while on Sunday. All models agree on it for Portland next week, as do ensembles.

[Gradient Keeper]

How about that 00z WRF?

 

Just your typical run of the mill 925mb temps -23c to -28c Gorge, Columbia Basin.

 

[TT-SEA]

Have to imagine what the ECMWF is showing next week is how January 1950 happened.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Toe Nail doesn't lie

Yes Sir!

[DiBiYoSi]

2-day total ending Wednesday afternoon.

 

Looks like a stripper pose...

[luvssnow_spokane]

What a night of model runs! Was it as good for you as it was for me?!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Meatyorologist]

EPS is still to come...can't imagine it being much different than tonight's Euro. Snowfall matrix will be fun to see for next Tuesday!

[MossMan]

Old school weather coming up.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  Low 20s for afternoon temps on Wednesday.  OMG!

 

That means snow ratios will be much higher than 10 to 1.

[Cloud]

By the way... this is the temperatures at 4 p.m. Wednesday.   That is powder down there!

 

20 degrees with 15 inches of snow during the day???  

 

 

With the strong outflow, might be a lot of blowing snow and snow drifts for PDX. 

[Perturbed Member]

Interesting to compare the positions of the low on all 3 models now.

 

GFS is much further south and drier with that system. The GEM and Euro are closer but the GEM still seems to want to send it further north and warms us all faster. I do think the GEM is scouring the low level way too fast. 

 

GFS

 

GEM 

 

 

Euro

 

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS is still to come...can't imagine it being much different than tonight's Euro. Snowfall matrix will be fun to see for next Tuesday!

Perhaps not, but I'll wager $3.29 it is quite a bit more aggressive with the arctic air.

[snow_wizard]

Snow ratios will be at least 15 to 1.  That means add at least 50% to the totals!

[Requiem]

Gosh, the FOX12WeatherBlog is the most glum and sad weather blog I've ever seen. Whew. Some regulars on there apparently not only haven't seen the models, but actively describe trends and synoptics that aren't even present on said runs. But I digress, even Mark is more positive than they are.

[TT-SEA]

Full disclosure... the ECMWF does show more reasonable high temps on Thursday.    Not that it would matter or melt any snow.   Just a little more sane. 

 

   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

From 10PM Sunday through 10PM Thursday...

 

 

Oregon Cascades really score. Looks like about 2' here. 

[HighlandExperience]

From 10PM Sunday through 10PM Thursday...

 

I can live with that