Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

Hmm, GFS is quite far south with the mid-week low, GEM is far north. Lots of potential.

[Weiner Warrior]

It might snow for 8 months straight. I need some snow shoes to go buy bread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG. MAJOR changes on the GFS ensembles. As of 10z Tuesday the operational is barely below the mean. 

[Deweydog]

I really would pay an unhealthy proportion of my money to see this run verify.

I’m in for $2,500.

 

Who else is in?

 

I’ll get a pen and paper...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z UKMET days 5 and 6.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

516 thickness line drops to SLE by hour 354.

[Perturbed Member]

Hmm, GFS is quite far south with the mid-week low, GEM is far north. Lots of potential.

 

The GEM trended much further south with that low. 

00z 

 

12z

[Deweydog]

Back up to 48 at PDX.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I’m in for $2,500.

Who else is in?

I’ll get a pen and paper...

I'll match that and raise you 2,500.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Seasonably cool

[GHweatherChris]

I really hope the rain train that has run rough shod over us here this first 7 days of the year pays off with a snow train as well, 8.22" of rain so far, 82 plus inches of snow wasted in January.

[Requiem]

The GEM trended much further south with that low. 

00z 

 

12z

 

Oh, I meant north in relation to the GFS. I hope the GFS brings back the idea the low will crash into the state instead of meander offshore, but the latter is more plausible.

[GHweatherChris]

I’m in for $2,500.

 

Who else is in?

 

I’ll get a pen and paper...

99.99 on a buy one get one.

[BLI snowman]

I’m in for $2,500.

 

Who else is in?

 

I’ll get a pen and paper...

 

We should just do a gofundme.

[GHweatherChris]

I'll match that and raise you 2,500.

Lol, you will make that back in one night of snow plowing, we are gonna need a higher bid from you lol!!

[Blizzard777]

We’re gonna need a bigger coat ! 

[The Swamp]

I calling it now.

 

Low land flooding by MLK.

 

Heavy snow followed by heavy rain.

[Blizzard777]

I calling it now.

 

Low land flooding by MLK.

 

Heavy snow followed by heavy rain.

You could be right on that!  The madness is about to start

[Perturbed Member]

GEM has a tendency to scour out cold air too quickly IMO. This track looks really good for SEA though.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At one point 15 of 20 ensemble members are below -10C at PDX.

[Jesse]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lol, you will make that back in one night of snow plowing, we are gonna need a higher bid from you lol!!

I've already been getting calls from clients. This will be 46 years that plow has been on that truck. My grandfather bought it in 1974 and installed the plow and believe it or not the hydraulic ram and pump that operate the plow have never been rebuilt.

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS vs 18z GFS

 

[Blizzard777]

GEM has a tendency to scour out cold air too quickly IMO. This track looks really good for SEA though.

 

We know how the scouring game goes....bring on the challengers 

[Requiem]

Improvements for every model. Not even lying. Maybe not in the snow department, but we don't know about that part yet. The cold in the believable range and mid-range is amazing. It's gonna be fun, I think. Bitter east winds, possible snow, cold. I'm...cautiously optimistic.

[Deweydog]

00z GFS shows surface temps falling below freezing at 10PM Sunday in Seattle and it doesn't cross that mark again until D13.

That’s like, what, two days?

[MossMan]

Good thing is the Hawks will be able to come home late Sunday and enjoy the PS blizzard on Monday without having to worry about preparation for the 9ers the following week.

Because they will be prepping for the Vikings at home!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

This looks pretty insane, looks like -20C 850mb temperatures over the Salish Sea. Can't remember the last time the upper levels were anywhere close to that cold. Even more impressive given there's still Arctic air pouring out of the Northern BC Coast.

 

[Deweydog]

00z GFS vs 18z GFS

 

Crazy cold a week out and now variability at 372 hours?

 

What’s next????

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We’re gonna need a bigger coat !

Thicker underwear as well!

[TacomaWaWx]

0.42" so far today in Tacoma. 3.14" for January.

[jcmcgaffey]

FrontalSquall already predicted last winter’s epicness way out in advance. Like in July or something.

 

I’m a dime a dozen these days. #worthless

I know there is probably more background reasoning/joking behind the MLK call but he called it back in fall of last year and would be funny if it actually came to fruition. Worst case it is just off by a few days.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GEM has a tendency to scour out cold air too quickly IMO. This track looks really good for SEA though.

 

 

Looks Dec 1996ish there; would be lots of low level cold spilling out of the Fraser into that.

[Deweydog]

We should just do a gofundme.

The proceeds should be able to get us all a month’s worth of Paxil when this crashes and burns.

[Front Ranger]

We’re gonna need a bigger coat ! 

 

Well done, sir.

[Blizzard777]

Looks Dec 1996ish there; would be lots of low level cold spilling out of the Fraser into that.

Yep, would be a perfect mess!

[Perturbed Member]

Crazy cold a week out and now variability at 372 hours?

 

What’s next????

 

Tim would have posted it if it had gone in the other direction. Just keeping it balanced. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think it can get any better than this. We will always cherish these runs.

[Front Ranger]

Um... well... OK then.. uh... about those GFS ensembles...

 

 

That is not seen everyday.

[Requiem]

I don't think it can get any better than this. We will always cherish these runs.

 

I'm wary after February, but this seems a bit colder in the low levels.