Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

Oh yeah, orientation of the TPV lobe is vastly improved.

 

Seems the precise manipulation of the TPV lobe itself might matter more than the structure of the block, which is relatively stable from run to run at this point.

[TT-SEA]

I might get to watch the Seahawks game... still not much snow Sunday evening.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Weiner Warrior]

Monday snow down to seattle

[Requiem]

We'll see how this run goes-- EURO had the lion's share of the snow for PDX Tuesday-Thursday.

[wxmet]

ECMWF puts down ~1in. of snow Monday morning in Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

This looks like an arctic boundary slipping south on Monday morning...

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

OMG!!!! Way colder!!!!!!!

 

Tonight

 

Previous

[Phil]

850s a hair colder by Sunday evening though, overall.

 

Definitely still not as fast to bring the cold air in as the GFS but a step in the right direction at 500mb.

 

This run should be much colder by D7-8.

[Deweydog]

MAJOR EPS IMPROVEMENT

[MikeInEverett]

MAJOR

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 past 4 runs

 

[Cloud]

Here's a comparison on how the models handles the AK Ridge at Day 6. Runs are 24 hours part. Solid win for the GFS. 

 

GFS 00z:

 

 

ECMWF 00z:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still waiting for totally insane temperature output to be impressed. 

[TT-SEA]

Monday afternoon from 1-4 p.m... drying out already.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sizable improvement.

 

 

LEGIT

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The ECMWF is similar to the GEM now in the track for the Sunday low, too far north for snow then but it will get very cold behind it.

[TT-SEA]

This run is way drier... as expected with much more cold air.

 

Here is Tuesday morning...

 

[Esquimalt]

The ECMWF is similar to the GEM now in the track for the Sunday low, too far north for snow then but it will get very cold behind it.

Sensing we might get screwed in the snow department on this one. But we’ll see, stuff can change

[TT-SEA]

Tuesday afternoon...

 

[Deweydog]

Tim finally getting some traction...

[TacomaWaWx]

Sensing we might get screwed in the snow department on this one. But we’ll see, stuff can change

way too early to see where it'll snow yet. Just about everyone has a chance.

[Perturbed Member]

The front passes PDX and its cold enough for all snow, but just showery stuff after and significant shadowing. 

 

Very believable here, this is how these things play out here almost all the time.  Best chance of significant snow is going to be that bigger low.

[Gradient Keeper]

The main differences between the GFS, EURO is the EURO brings the cut-off around the block faster than the GFS. I would wager the EPS is more aggressive dropping the arctic hammer over us and then Op runs tomorrow are colder.

[luvssnow_spokane]

BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Sizable improvement over 12z.

 

Yeah, trended colder.

 

[Cloud]

This run is very much colder but drier. As expected if you want more cold tbh. Which should be OK, let the cold air stay in place and the snow will come. I don't like the idea of a quick hitter and scouring out the cold. 

[wxmet]

Regional overrunning event on the ECMWF at 186 hr.

[OysterPrintout]

Here she comes 

[TT-SEA]

Tim finally getting some traction...

 

I sense some very snowy maps coming for Wednesday.   Going to post those as well.  

[Weiner Warrior]

D**n... Lots of snow Wednesday

[Requiem]

I sense some very snowy maps coming for Wednesday.   Going to post those as well.  

 

This might be my favorite post yet.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Regional overrunning event on the ECMWF at 186 hr.

Yeah, nice.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Better on the EURO, but still a ways to go. 

[TT-SEA]

Wednesday morning before dawn...

 

[GHweatherChris]

Lol

[kokaneekidz]

WAZ507-509-555>559-080700-
SEATTLE, TACOMA, EVERETT, AND VICINITY

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
EVERETT HVY RAIN 44 41 89 NW5 29.70R FOG
6HR MIN TEMP: 47; 6HR MAX TEMP: 50; 6HR PCP: 0.02;

BOEING FIELD MOCLDY 49 44 83 S14G23 29.69R
6HR MIN TEMP: 49; 6HR MAX TEMP: 54; 6HR PCP: 0.01;

RENTON CLOUDY 48 44 86 S10 29.70R
6HR MIN TEMP: 47; 6HR MAX TEMP: 54; 6HR PCP: 0.01;

SEATAC AIRPORT CLOUDY 48 45 89 S15 29.69S
6HR MIN TEMP: 47; 6HR MAX TEMP: 53; 6HR PCP: 0.03;

JBLM-MCCHORD MOCLDY 46 46 100 SW12G20 29.73R
6HR MIN TEMP: 46; 6HR MAX TEMP: 52; 6HR PCP: 0.15;

PUYALLUP DRIZZLE 46 46 100 SW7 29.73R
BREMERTON CLOUDY 46 44 93 S16 29.68R
6HR MIN TEMP: 46; 6HR MAX TEMP: 48; 6HR PCP: 0.06;

JBLM-FT LEWIS NOT AVBL
TACOMA NARROWS PTCLDY 45 43 93 SW15G23 29.71R
6HR MIN TEMP: 46; 6HR MAX TEMP: 50; 6HR PCP: 0.10; 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This run is ok I guess but I'd rather finish watching Darby O'Gill and the little people.

[Requiem]

STRONG EASTERLY FLOW!

 

Sorry, just excited. That's incredible model agreement in the low offshore tightening the gradient and bringing that cold wind.