Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

gem_z500a_namer_26.png

It better keep digging.

[GHweatherChris]

Things are noot looking great, for my backyard, uugghh...

[Deweydog]

Canadian is off to the races!!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yep, 12z not as cold and quite a bit snowier.

I'll take that. Give me Heavy Snow.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS is colder on Tuesday than the 00Z run.

 

[Omegaraptor]

I'll take that. Give me Heavy Snow.

 

Frontal Coldsquall

[Requiem]

Gosh, what happened to the Canadian towards the end? Phew, hope that trends better.

[Timmy]

Meanwhile PDX snuck down to 43 this morning!

warning shot

[Omegaraptor]

PDX ensemble mean looks to be down to -13 850s now

[jakerepp]

 

Andrew and I are NOT on the same page. 

[GHweatherChris]

Ran into a rain/snow mix while taking the kiddo to school an hour ago.

[TT-SEA]

Gosh, what happened to the Canadian towards the end? Phew, hope that trends better.

 

 

Good news is that Oregon needs the rain! 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Welp, not a good GEM run.  If the EC pulls back this place is gonna be an even bigger nuthouse.

[Esquimalt]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the GFS ensemble mean is going to bottom out at -13C for PDX.

[GHweatherChris]

Honestly, I could see the Euro tugging on the rug, usually happens about this far out and then it will go back to what we want.

[Perturbed Member]

GEM is further south with the mid week system again. Looking closer to the GFS/Euro in track.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like the GFS ensemble mean is going to bottom out at -13C for PDX.

 

Very impressive. Glad to see the ensembles finally turned around in the last 24 hours. 

 

Maybe the new GFS is pretty good? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GEM was actually cooler in the mid-late week period next week than previous runs. 

[TT-SEA]

GEM is further south with the mid week system again. Looking closer to the GFS/Euro in track.

 

 

GEM actually shows the low in roughly the same place by Thursday afternoon as the GFS... its just warmer and showing mostly rain down there.

 

[Deweydog]

Who wants a cinnamon roll?

[Requiem]

The GEM was actually cooler in the mid-late week period next week than previous runs. 

 

Yeah, I think it's the low pressure location that isn't ideal. GEM hasn't been consistent at all with that though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

This...doesn't happen very often.

[Omegaraptor]

Who wants a cinnamon roll?

 

Dewey's Low Sodium Low Solar Recipe?

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS for Wednesday afternoon...

 

[Omegaraptor]

12Z GEFS for Wednesday afternoon...

 

 

Columbia Basin Cold Pool!!!

[Front Ranger]

Block is still standing strong with a reload at day 10 on the Canadian.

[Gradient Keeper]

Really hope the next 3-4 runs shows the PV digging more southwestward in Northwest Territories than due west which is an unmistakable trend right now. If not and that trend continues this won't end up good.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS for Thursdsay afternoon... slightly warmer at this time then its 00Z run.

 

Ironically... its shows the low in about the same place as the 12Z GEM.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

While not infallible, most interested in what Mark has to say. He's been cautious as usual. No surprised there. Times drawing nigh for him to jump or not.

Yeah, also eager to hear from Steve Pierce.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS for Friday afternoon... again this is a little warmer than the 00Z run.

 

Everything is shifted a little bit to the north and west... which is that trend that Rob is talking about.

 

[Requiem]

Let's hope to god that everything doesn't shift like this...

[Esquimalt]

Really hope the next 3-4 runs shows the PV digging more southwestward in Northwest Territories than due west which is an unmistakable trend right now. If not and that trend continues this won't end up good.

I don’t see what could happen. All models are looking good for at least decent cold and snow at the moment so clearly something is good about that pattern

[TT-SEA]

And then Saturday afternoon on the GEFS... this is actually a little colder than the 00Z run.

 

[Deweydog]

Almost under a 100 hours until Sunday’s 18z...

[Gradient Keeper]

I don’t see what could happen. All models are looking good for at least decent cold and snow at the moment so clearly something is good about that pattern

That's why the 12z GEM doesn't dig the arctic air southward very far and it stalls. 12z GFS made a move towards this also. Hopefully the next 3-4 runs slides the PV further south. Big EURO run today.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good lord.

 

Heavy Snowy.

[Requiem]

That's why the 12z GEM doesn't dig the arctic air southward very far and it stalls. 12z GFS made a move towards this also. Hopefully the next 3-4 runs slides the PV further south. Big EURO run today.

 

That's a bit precarious-- hope that moves south.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Esquimalt]

That's why the 12z GEM doesn't dig the arctic air southward very far and it stalls. 12z GFS made a move towards this also. Hopefully the next 3-4 runs slides the PV further south. Big EURO run today.

Yeah. That’s why it’s tough for all of us on the forum to be happy at once. Because I prefer if the cold air stalls because that makes it snowier up here, but obviously that’s not the greatest for you guys