Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Prairiedog]

Yeah, also eager to hear from Steve Pierce.

Steve bought into all the EURO hype last Feb and rode it off the cliff.  There was a lot of hype and crazy making.  Lets see how he handles this one. 

[Perturbed Member]

GEM actually shows the low in roughly the same place by Thursday afternoon as the GFS... its just warmer and showing mostly rain down there.

 

 

Yep, and that is quite a bit further south than the previous GEM and much faster in timing too. 

 

Here was the previous GEM

 

 

 

Latest GEM warms us up really quick and turns to rain but I still think the GEM has consistently been too quick to scour out the cold relative to other models. I think it would stay snow much longer with that track here. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TT-SEA]

Yep, and that is quite a bit further south than the previous GEM and much faster in timing too. 

 

Here was the previous GEM

 

 

 

Latest GEM warms us up really quick and turns to rain but I still think the GEM has consistently been too quick to scour out the cold relative to other models. I think it would stay snow much longer with that track here. 

 

 

Really does not seem reasonable to scour out all that cold air.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z GEFS is colder on Tuesday than the 00Z run.

 

Nice!

[TT-SEA]

High/lo temps from 12z GFS for KBLI, KPAE, KSEA, and KPDX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seattle has not had a single day with a high temp below 25 in January since 1969 per Jim.

 

It seems very reasonable that they will have 5 in a row next week... and a high of 14 on one day.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Columbia Basin Cold Pool!!!

Yeah, build that CRB cold pool!

[Prairiedog]

High/lo temps from 12z GFS for KBLI, KPAE, KSEA, and KPDX.

 

 

 

 

That seems to me like just craziness.  Could happen I guess, but that is like '50 stuff.  I won't let my head go there yet.  My heart wants to but when is the last time we've had consecutive days of temps like that?  Snow cover obviously will need to be in place.  This has to be overdone.  Is it?

[Front Ranger]

High/lo temps from 12z GFS for KBLI, KPAE, KSEA, and KPDX.

 

 

 

 

 

High of 4 at BLI? 

 

They've had single digit highs once, with the December 1968 event. Other times that have come close: Dec 1964 (10), Feb 1989 (12), and Jan 1950 (14).

[wxmet]

Much better GFS 12z run especially for the system mid next week. Less cold and more snow.

[Chewbacca Defense]

It would, but it’s mostly in clown range, so I’m not paying it much attention.

It seems like over the past decade we really struggle to get the moisture.  We might get a few inches, which I can’t complain about, but folks south are getting 8-12”+

 

As you said, it’s in clown range but recent history is not our friend.

[TT-SEA]

I have to do a presentation in a meeting at 10 a.m. today... bad timing!

 

I really want to watch the ECMWF as it comes out.  

[Deweydog]

Seems like there is more than just Justin on the #justice4 train.

 

This is gonna get complicated.

[Front Ranger]

Seattle has not had a single day with a high temp below 25 in January since 1969 per Jim.

 

It seems very reasonable that they will have 5 in a row next week... and a high of 14 on one day.   

 

I believe it's only happened in 3 different years: 1950, 1963, and 1969.

 

Other times it's happened: Feb 1989, Feb 1956, Nov 1955, Nov 1985, Dec 1964, Dec 1983, Dec 1990, and Dec 1968.

 

The high of 14 would break the all-time coldest high of 16 from 1950. 

[Cloud]

You're a ****.

The man sure knows how to trigger people. Lol

[TT-SEA]

You're a ****.

 

You sort through the 20 positive posts that I made already this morning... and pick out the one post that was intended to mock the GEM model and call me out.   

 

Very nice. 

[ShawniganLake]

[Deweydog]

Dolt eats bags of Tims for breakfast!

[runninthruda206]

D**n I want it to snow Sunday afternoon during the game

[BLI snowman]

High of 4 at BLI? 

 

They've had single digit highs once, with the December 1968 event. Other times that have come close: Dec 1964 (10), Feb 1989 (12), and Jan 1950 (14).

 

Not quite correct. Two of their coldest days are inexplicably missing from the NCDC database.

 

1/13/1950 is clearly the coldest day on record at BLI with a high of 4.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kbli/date/1950-1-13

 

And 2/1/1989 had a high of 8

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/bellingham/KBLI/date/1989-2-1

 

Obviously that's a historic level cold wave for them though.

[Bham_Guy]

Not quite correct. Two of their coldest days are inexplicably missing from the NCDC database.

 

1/13/1950 is clearly the coldest day on record at BLI with a high of 4.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kbli/date/1950-1-13

 

And 2/1/1989 had a high of 8

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/bellingham/KBLI/date/1989-2-1

 

Obviously that's a historic level cold wave for them though.

 

Was just about to post the same info. If we get a historic blast I'm sure the station will find a way to go offline or something.

[Deweydog]

Boyz II Men coming to Ilani on March 12th!

 

The sounds of winter 1992-93...

[Cloud]

d**n I want it to snow Sunday afternoon during the game

You know this is going to change like 25 more times before Sunday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not quite correct. Two of their coldest days are inexplicably missing from the NCDC database.

 

1/13/1950 is clearly the coldest day on record at BLI with a high of 4.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kbli/date/1950-1-13

 

And 2/1/1989 had a high of 8

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/bellingham/KBLI/date/1989-2-1

 

Obviously that's a historic level cold wave for them though.

 

Quality control algorithm got them. 

[runninthruda206]

You know this is going to change like 25 more times before Sunday.

Yeah I know it’s not locked in but atm it seems like the cold air isn’t coming quite as fast on Sunday. I’m sure, like you said, it’ll change and I’m really hoping it comes in quicker!

[Skagit Weather]

Not quite correct. Two of their coldest days are inexplicably missing from the NCDC database.

 

1/13/1950 is clearly the coldest day on record at BLI with a high of 4.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kbli/date/1950-1-13

 

And 2/1/1989 had a high of 8

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/bellingham/KBLI/date/1989-2-1

 

Obviously that's a historic level cold wave for them though.

 

For 1950, 3F and 59 mph wind gusts translates to a wind chill of -25F. That would be quite chilly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status/1214954750346588160

 

I heard the mysterious 06z EURO was good.

[BLI snowman]

Was just about to post the same info. If we get a historic blast I'm sure the station will find a way to go offline or something.

 

The official NCDC record actually shows a high of 40 with a missing low on 1/13/1950, which is obviously laughable. What's 36 degrees between friends?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we get 3"+ going into arctic air then I am happy.

[TT-SEA]

Hawks... its on you to post ECMWF snow maps!  

 

I will be offline here until at least 10:30.  

 

I don't think it would be appropriate to have a window open monitoring the ECMWF run and another one for the weather forum during my presentation.  

[BLI snowman]

For 1950, 3F and 59 mph wind gusts translates to a wind chill of -25F. That would be quite chilly.

 

Those numbers were sustained winds, as well. The peak gust at BLI was actually 75mph.

 

https://atmos.uw.edu/marka/bham_herald_jan50/1950-01-13%20No%20Relief%20From%20Near%20Zero%20Mark.pdf

 

That particular event ranks very high in the pantheon of PNW winter storms, probably top 5 dating back to the 1840s. Pretty nutso storm.

[van city]

Hawks... its on you to post ECMWF snow maps!  

 

I will be offline here until at least 10:30.  

 

I don't think it would be appropriate to have a window open monitoring the ECMWF run and another one for the weather forum during my presentation.  

We lost Tim.

[Deweydog]

First the ICON, now Tim???

[TacomaWaWx]

D*mn this could be an interesting next week coming up. Not sold on the extremley extreme cold temps yet but wouldn't surprise me if it got really cold still. Maybe more like lows in the teens not lows around 0 seem realistic. It has happened before though...maybe this will be a major cold wave we will see.

Snow will be something we have to wait and see on. Kind of a toss up on if there will be snow Sunday/Monday as Arctic air floods the area. Might end up with a better chance later next week. Hard to say what will happen after that. Could be a prolonged ice box or back to more normal weather.

Either way seems like we're in a Pretty good spot. Too cold or too snowy seem like the options right now lol.

[Front Ranger]

Not quite correct. Two of their coldest days are inexplicably missing from the NCDC database.

 

1/13/1950 is clearly the coldest day on record at BLI with a high of 4.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/or/portland/kbli/date/1950-1-13

 

And 2/1/1989 had a high of 8

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/bellingham/KBLI/date/1989-2-1

 

Obviously that's a historic level cold wave for them though.

 

Ah. Expunged as part of "quality control", most likely. 

[Deweydog]

Update!!

 

Looks like PDX actually made it to 42 this morning.

 

#30’sfree20’s

[runninthruda206]

[Cloud]

Block over AK looks just a touch better at D2 than 12z yesterday.

Good to see it continuing the trend from the 00z run. 

[ShawniganLake]

Very little snow on the WRF from 4AM Sunday-4AM Monday.

 

It is due to practically zero precipitation, not lack of cold temps. It's shown to get frigid as early as Sunday evening.

 

Flash freeze. That shows rain and mixed precip around Bellingham in the morning. Teens by afternoon and single digits by evening