ENSO 2023

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

It seems like the question for el nino is usually whether we can get that split flow along the west coast or not. You need a speed bump for the jet to go around to get the cold in here of course, and that seems more likely with weak to moderate events rather than strong ones. This may be right on the edge, but I remain hopeful. 

Something I have paid attn to over the years, is how the weather pattern transpires in and around warm/cold pools.  It's only mid summer and a lot can change, but heading into the Fall months, if this warm pool knifing into the NE PAC along with colder waters hugging the west coast of the U.S. remains...this will create a favorable Split Flow pattern.  My friends in So Cal have been complaining on how bad the "June Gloom" has been and how cold the past 8 months were if you live near the ocean.  The onshore flow has been continuous and that bodes well during the winter months as it will drive the STJ and troughs into So Cal/4 corners.

 

[Hoosier]

I think we're going to see some really juiced systems this winter. This winter should have its moments, but I think it's always wise to keep expectations in check when you're staring down the barrel of a Nino of this expected magnitude. For the Lakes/Midwest specifically, don't expect to get through winter without some substantial thaws.  

To the point from above about juiced systems, I expect that to include our region too.  Ninos can be dry around the Lakes/Midwest, but that dry signal sort of fades in stronger Ninos.  So I'd be skeptical of any forecasts that have a dry winter across the region. 

[Tom]

Since we don't have an Autumn/Winter Outlook yet (should prob create one soon or someone else can do so)....here is Accuweather's take for Autumn...

 

[Andie]

Despite being on the edge of cooler, it’s most welcome.  Especially if it brings rain. 

[Black Hole]

Here are a bunch of slides I made for a project, but thought I would share with you all too. They aren't meant to look good, just be interesting and I didn't bother to trim the comments on the slides. Some of them mention OK but obviously its applicable to all of us. For starters Feb-March height anomalies.

It's possible you might bin these differently, but here is what I included for strong el nino. You can tell that other than 2015-16 it's pretty much the same pattern every time. It does shift around a bit though and that does make a difference.

So here is the composite. Lots of warm air floods the country due to that crazy STJ and lack of cold air to the north. Now let's add the moderate years since we are borderline strong this year.

And the mean...

Pretty interesting differences here compared to the strong. You can see the west coast ridge instead of the massive GOA trough. Similarly, negative height anomalies extend north instead of that large high over Canada. Much more cold air available and obviously a much better snow pattern for most of us.

For fun, here are the weak years as well. It's basically the same as moderate but shifted further north.

 

So now, here is Dec-Jan.

 

Moderate and strong events match a lot better! In fact, it looks similar in all 3 types just shifted by type.

Strong el nino events seem to be correlated with big time precip over a broad area compared to only a slight bump in weak-moderate. Weak el nino is the coldest overall for the eastern half of the country.

 

Kind of interesting how the stronger the event the further east its centered on average. You can essentially see this same shift on the Dec-Jan height maps too. 

Seems to be a hybrid event on models, which makes sense for a borderline mod-strong year. I guess we will see! Hope this was interesting. 

[Tom]

The Canadian model came in last night with a fascinating run in terms of the Strong Nino (modoki flavor)....the trend has been to migrate the warm waters farther west as we roll through the start of the new LRC (Oct-Nov), followed by, the continuation of the NE PAC Warm Blob which the model is indicating will contribute to immense high lat blocking in the Northern Territories of N Canada.

 

Autumn...

 

Winter...looks pretty darn similar to some of the maps @Black Holeposted above...I'm liking these early trends.

 

 

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

The Canadian model came in last night with a fascinating run in terms of the Strong Nino (modoki flavor)....the trend has been to migrate the warm waters farther west as we roll through the start of the new LRC (Oct-Nov), followed by, the continuation of the NE PAC Warm Blob which the model is indicating will contribute to immense high lat blocking in the Northern Territories of W Canada.

 

Autumn...

 

Winter...looks pretty darn similar to some of the maps @Black Holeposted above...I'm liking these early trends.

 

 

I like that Cansips map. It still has the major high latitude block, but its more favorable because it doesn't have the wild GOA low. Got to avoid that. 

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

[Tom]

59 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I like that Cansips map. It still has the major high latitude block, but its more favorable because it doesn't have the wild GOA low. Got to avoid that. 

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

I do not and would be interested to know if someone can dig it up.  I think this coming years Niño is going to be one that sets a new callibor of Modoki’s (if it works out the way modeling is suggesting).

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

The Canadian model came in last night with a fascinating run in terms of the Strong Nino (modoki flavor)....the trend has been to migrate the warm waters farther west as we roll through the start of the new LRC (Oct-Nov), followed by, the continuation of the NE PAC Warm Blob which the model is indicating will contribute to immense high lat blocking in the Northern Territories of N Canada.

 

Autumn...

 

Winter...looks pretty darn similar to some of the maps @Black Holeposted above...I'm liking these early trends.

 

 

There's that westward shift in the Niño I've been looking for! Should be actually underway right now.

Add all these things together and trim off the extreme solutions on either end of the spectrum and I think it spells a nice winter on the way. 

It's August 1, I can talk about winter now. I think we're all over summer finally.

[OKwx2k4]

9 hours ago, Black Hole said:

I like that Cansips map. It still has the major high latitude block, but its more favorable because it doesn't have the wild GOA low. Got to avoid that. 

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

As a general guess, the strongest Modoki was 2009 and it peaked at moderate. Don't know of any really strong events that didn't really bleed over into the full-latitude category.

I used to know where the reconstruction sst maps were and could be generated, but I don't anymore.

[Stormy]

20 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

There's that westward shift in the Niño I've been looking for! Should be actually underway right now.

Add all these things together and trim off the extreme solutions on either end of the spectrum and I think it spells a nice winter on the way. 

It's August 1, I can talk about winter now. I think we're all over summer finally.

Not me! I mostly love summers, and this one was very pleasant for the most part so far. The main problem I don't like is there are lengthy dry spells in recent summers including right now. I like fall and spring, but wish I could skip winter. Lol But if there wouldn't be winter here we'd know something is screwed up and seriously wrong, which we don't want either. 

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

As a general guess, the strongest Modoki was 2009 and it peaked at moderate. Don't know of any really strong events that didn't really bleed over into the full-latitude category.

I used to know where the reconstruction sst maps were and could be generated, but I don't anymore.

It looks like NDJ peaked at +1.6C for that winter. We could be in that neighborhood this year. 

[westMJim]

14 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Do you know offhand our strongest Modoki event on record?

The information that I have found is that there were Modoki El Nino events in.

El Niño "Modoki" events occurred in 199192, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05, and 200910. The El Nino Modoki was named to represent the phenomenon in 2004 that had a maximum SST anomaly in the central tropical Pacific, differing from the conventional El Nino.

Of the above events 1991/92 was strong. 1994/95 and 2002/03 were moderate and 2004/05 was weak. Not sure if there was a Mokoke event since 2004/05 or not. But 2006/07, 2014/15 and 2018/19 were weak. 2009/10 was moderate and 2015/16 was strong.

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[Black Hole]

A friend of mine in the NWS who has published papers on climate stuff (i.e. Should know what he is talking about) gave me this as a best guess for the "next water year" average height anomaly pattern. This would be a good winter pattern as we wouldn't get completely flooded with Pacific air. 

[Black Hole]

He also said that the weather pattern this year so far might be giving some hints into the general pattern we will settle into for the next water year as well. It wouldn't be exactly this, but you might be able to see some similarities with the other map I just added. 

[Tom]

My mind was on the same tune this morning after I looked at the 0z GEFS 500mb height anomalies as I ponder on the idea "Is Nature showing signs?"  Aleutian Low, -NAO/-AO/-EPO...Hello!

[westMJim]

For what it is worth

Ryan Hall’s first winter prediction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqFwo4g_X7g

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, Black Hole said:

A friend of mine in the NWS who has published papers on climate stuff (i.e. Should know what he is talking about) gave me this as a best guess for the "next water year" average height anomaly pattern. This would be a good winter pattern as we wouldn't get completely flooded with Pacific air. 

Man, if you take 2019 and 2006 away, wow.

Tom wrote on the rest of it well. I don't really mind there being a ridge occasionally over the Aleutians in Autumn, (per this map) but the fears come if by October, that thing doesn't budge. 

Thankfully, the SST alignment doesn't truly, in my opinion, support massive ridging into DJF. 

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

My mind was on the same tune this morning after I looked at the 0z GEFS 500mb height anomalies as I ponder on the idea "Is Nature showing signs?"  Aleutian Low, -NAO/-AO/-EPO...Hello!

If the forum wants to watch the perfect pattern to cool our continent, there it is. I just am scared we'll see it too early. Need that 1.2 Niño region to collapse along with this silly ridge to retrograde.

[OKwx2k4]

15 hours ago, Stormy said:

Not me! I mostly love summers, and this one was very pleasant for the most part so far. The main problem I don't like is there are lengthy dry spells in recent summers including right now. I like fall and spring, but wish I could skip winter. Lol But if there wouldn't be winter here we'd know something is screwed up and seriously wrong, which we don't want. 

The lengthy dry spells are a byproduct of being in LA Niña for the last 3 years. Less heat to atmosphere in general means less water vapor transport to us. 

I believe if Colorado hadn't had its wettest period on record going into this warm season, northern/central parts of our region would be desperately struggling right now with very little help from the cold waters in the eastern Pacific (off Cali and the SW US) blocking the Niño input. Our Summer in a lot of places would be a lot different today.

[Stormy]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

The lengthy dry spells are a byproduct of being in LA Niña for the last 3 years. Less heat to atmosphere in general means less water vapor transport to us. 

I believe if Colorado hadn't had its wettest period on record going into this warm season, northern/central parts of our region would be desperately struggling right now with very little help from the cold waters in the eastern Pacific (off Cali and the SW US) blocking the Niño input. Our Summer in a lot of places would be a lot different today.

I totally agree with the first paragraph, and the second paragraph I don't know or understand enough about to share my thoughts. 

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, Stormy said:

I totally agree with the first paragraph, and the second paragraph I don't know or understand enough about to share my thoughts. 

Basically, my belief is that the excess evaporation and snowmelt seeded storms over the central US. It was like having a reservoir of water inland.

[Tom]

6 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Basically, my belief is that the excess evaporation and snowmelt seeded storms over the central US. It was like having a reservoir of water inland.

My cousin was in Winter Park, CO last week and the north facing trails still had snow on them.  That is one place on my bucket list that I want to visit in CO...what a beautiful place.

[gimmesnow]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

My cousin was in Winter Park, CO last week and the north facing trails still had snow on them.  That is one place on my bucket list that I want to visit in CO...what a beautiful place.

Snowboarded there, it really is gorgeous. Fun place to snowboard and ski too, lots of moguls and trees though.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

Snowboarded there, it really is gorgeous. Fun place to snowboard and ski too, lots of moguls and trees though.

I read that it is known to be a good place to ride moguls, in fact, the US olympians trained on these trails back in the day.  They prob still do.

[gimmesnow]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

I read that it is known to be a good place to ride moguls, in fact, the US olympians trained on these trails back in the day.  They prob still do.

It is a lot of fun for sure. I'm really hoping this winter rocks, have big plans to drive around the country snowboarding. And I finished Ski Patrol training so I'm not stuck at Alpine Valley two or three days a week.

[Black Hole]

It doesn't look like anybody added this yet, but the latest ECMWF for winter is out. Feb in particular looks interesting for the south and east. 

[OKwx2k4]

12 hours ago, Black Hole said:

It doesn't look like anybody added this yet, but the latest ECMWF for winter is out. Feb in particular looks interesting for the south and east. 

That's beautiful.

[Tom]

This is a great sign to see model agreement at this range as the UKMET model is seeing a similar 500mb pattern over North America for the Autumn/Winter.  Boy, that W NAMER Ridge and HIGH LAT Blocking is quite intriguing to say the least!  #STJ...very evident...you guys down south will likely see a completely opposite weather pattern compared to what your experiencing right now.  

SEP-NOV....

 

 

OCT-DEC...

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

On 8/7/2023 at 6:46 AM, Tom said:

This is a great sign to see model agreement at this range as the UKMET model is seeing a similar 500mb pattern over North America for the Autumn/Winter.  Boy, that W NAMER Ridge and HIGH LAT Blocking is quite intriguing to say the least!  #STJ...very evident...you guys down south will likely see a completely opposite weather pattern compared to what your experiencing right now.  

SEP-NOV....

 

 

OCT-DEC...

 

 

 

Buddy, that's cold weather. Extremely cold. Like you said, exactly the opposite. Imagining that on into full winter months of  DJF and you have a full-scale memorable winter for the whole eastern 2/3 of the US.

[Andie]

The big question for Okla/Tx is do we see the deep 0 to -5* we had a few yrs ago?  

[Black Hole]

On 8/6/2023 at 8:41 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

That's beautiful.

Couldn't draw it up much better for us. That would be a big time snow pattern with just the perfect blend of cold air and enough moisture. 

[OKwx2k4]

12 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Couldn't draw it up much better for us. That would be a big time snow pattern with just the perfect blend of cold air and enough moisture. 

Right. It's the absolutely most perfect pattern.

[OKwx2k4]

The change I've spoken about in the Niño has officially begun in earnest. It appears 1.2 has topped out and begun its gradual step-down process, while 3.4 is holding stable. (2009 Analog for the win.)

Also, seeing the cold strip from Hawaii to Baja warm is a huge indicator for cold over the CONUS and a positive pdo signal developing. 

This should shift forcing back off towards the dateline and open the door for colder futures anywhere east of the Rockies with exception to the New England states. 

 

[OKwx2k4]

My only disappointment with my forecasting so far since spring is underestimating the heat/drought cycle severity in TX coming off a Niña. A mistake I hope to not overlook in the future.

[OKwx2k4]

Showing signs of stability in 3.4 with declines in 1.2. 

Beautiful.

 

[jaster220]

59 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Showing signs of stability in 3.4 with declines in 1.2. 

Beautiful.

 

Couldn't this "double peak" tho? Pretty sure I remember one where that's exactly how the winter became a dumpster fire in the Midwest. Was it 15-16 perhaps? Was looking promising, then it just re-surged at the last minute. Idk, maybe I'm loosing my memory. 

[OKwx2k4]

I'd advise against any new articles that scream super Niño without even stating a forecast number. 

Like some released today. There's no evidence anywhere to support a "super-Nino." None.

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/17/2023 at 7:21 PM, jaster220 said:

Couldn't this "double peak" tho? Pretty sure I remember one where that's exactly how the winter became a dumpster fire in the Midwest. Was it 15-16 perhaps? Was looking promising, then it just re-surged at the last minute. Idk, maybe I'm loosing my memory. 

I believe 15-16 was a super-Nino suckfest all the way from October up, but I was deceived by the water temp alignments off Mexico and the US west coast. They overrode some of Niño effects, but not all.

[OKwx2k4]

I saw recently from something that was posted last weekend by Joe Bastardi that we are, even in grip of Niño, at only +0.23C globally in terms of temperature anomalies. Nowhere close to a record. 

#FailNiño