March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

34 and cloudy this morning. The models do show atleast a chance of something interesting this month still. Would be funny if this didn’t go by the playbook we’ve been following all year in which the models look fantastic then fade as we get close to the event. I’m still skeptical about anything crazy happening despite some good model runs.

[ShawniganLake]

I wonder if the Euro’s cutoff bias is the reason that it is showing much colder solutions. The GEPS and GEFS both have a brief cool airmass later next week before it warms up. Nothing out of the ordinary

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if the Euro’s cutoff bias is the reason that it is showing much colder solutions. The GEPS and GEFS both have a brief cool airmass later next week before it warms up. Nothing out of the ordinary

 

Appears not... the 12Z GFS now looks just like the ECMWF by Friday and Saturday.

[TacomaWaWx]

Appears not... the 12Z GFS now looks just like the ECMWF by Friday and Saturday.

Yeah they’re pretty similar looking now...looks interesting and it’s something to track weather wise atleast. Definitely am not getting excited for anything though.

[ShawniganLake]

Appears not... the 12Z GFS now looks just like the ECMWF by Friday and Saturday.

Could just be the euro’s correct bias.

[TT-SEA]

Could just be the euro’s correct bias.

 

 

And now the 12Z ECMWF will probably come out with a totally different solution... that is usually how this works.

[ShawniganLake]

Jim’s going to be happy with this run. The second trough is looking very cold.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good pattern for snow in the lowlands end of the week but the fact it is mid March will be a huge factor.

[MossMan]

Had a trace of snow overnight. Currently partly cloudy and 33 degrees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm ready to fire up the boat! We had a blast last summer boating in hood canal. Pretty amazing how much warmer the water gets compared to the sound.

[Tyler Mode]

I just returned from Coldfoot, Alaska.  I was there most of the week and experienced my coldest temperatures ever.  The coldest I saw was -55.  The pic with me in the face mask is on the night it was -55, out watching the aurora.  The other face picture is from Friday after an hour long walk after the temperature had warmed to around -20.

 

It's amazing how warm 0 degrees felt yesterday in Fairbanks after being so far below 0.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just returned from Coldfoot, Alaska.  I was there most of the week and experienced my coldest temperatures ever.  The coldest I saw was -55.  The pic with me in the face mask is on the night it was -55, out watching the aurora.  The other face picture is from Friday after an hour long walk after the temperature had warmed to around -20.

 

It's amazing how warm 0 degrees felt yesterday in Fairbanks after being so far below 0.

Wow!! isn't it amazing how the cold penetrates through the clothing like liquid?

[Tyler Mode]

Wow!! isn't it amazing how the cold penetrates through the clothing like liquid?

Luckily on the the last day had much of a breeze...but yes, any area slightly exposed was highlighted quickly lol

[ShawniganLake]

GEM is looking potentially very snowy Friday for parts of Washington and SW BC

[MossMan]

A friend that lives east of Smokey Point near Hwy 9 posted on FB a pic of about an inch of snow at their house.

[HighlandExperience]

Good pattern for snow in the lowlands end of the week but the fact it is mid March will be a huge factor.

Will be interesting. At least flakes should fly

[MossMan]

What if Jim turns out to be right...

 

Guess I will leave the snow plow on my mower for one more week.

[HighlandExperience]

GEM is looking potentially very snowy Friday for parts of Washington and SW BC

Looks like a couple of inches for the Puget Sound region. Mmm

[El_Nina]

Spring snow is my favorite. It takes something pretty dynamic to do it and it usually falls as fat snowflakes that plaster everything. 

[TT-SEA]

GEM is looking potentially very snowy Friday for parts of Washington and SW BC

It shows snow on Friday morning and then widespread rain that afternoon.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a couple of inches for the Puget Sound region. Mmm

Shows 2-3 feet of snow up here. But very localized. Pretty nice setup overall. Mid March being probably a bit of an issue

[GHweatherChris]

[MossMan]

[GHweatherChris]

Not what it meant.

[ShawniganLake]

It shows snow on Friday morning and then widespread rain that afternoon.

Looks like snow for Vancouver Island to me. I said “parts” not everywhere.

[Front Ranger]

Spring snow is my favorite. It takes something pretty dynamic to do it and it usually falls as fat snowflakes that plaster everything.

Also Tim's least favorite time of year for snow, another bonus.

[El_Nina]

0.37" yesterday and 0.45" Friday brings the March total up to 0.91".

Average here is 8.08" in March and we only got half of that amount in February so we have a deficit in the makings. 

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like snow for Vancouver Island to me. I said “parts” not everywhere.

You showed some excitement, that was the issue.

[Jesse]

How did the 12z Euro look.

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

From yesterday?

Yeah just a little time change humour.

[Phil]

Welp.

 

[Jesse]

Welp.

Always a realistic signal when the start time is hour 276.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah just a little time change humour.

I thought perhaps that was the case. I forgot about the time change last night. I was a bit confused when I got up this morning

[Jesse]

I thought perhaps that was the case. I forgot about the time change last night. I was a bit confused when I got up this morning

We were up late over at a friends so I was actually awake when my phone clock when from 1:59 to 3:00. That reminded me that I would probably be sleeping in later than I usually like to today.

[Phil]

Always a realistic signal when the start time is hour 276.

EPS members are getting more bullish too. Pattern is becoming favorable for wave driving. It’s plausible. Plus a raging winter like vortex in March is more vulnerable to a dynamic type final warming event anyway (esp under descending westerly shear/-QBO in the early life cycle).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty incredible how dry the models look. 2nd straight driest March ever is definitely in play.

[Jesse]

EPS members are getting more bullish too. Pattern is becoming favorable for wave driving. It’s plausible. Plus a raging winter like vortex in March is more vulnerable to a dynamic type final warming event anyway (esp under descending westerly shear/-QBO in the early life cycle).

Burn me thrice. Shame on me. Seems like there have been a handful of long range SSW fake outs this winter. I’d like it to happen but not going to hold my breath just yet.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still cloudy...38 degrees. Chilly day for early March but one year ago today 38 was the high temp along with a quick inch of snow in the morning.

[Phil]

Burn me thrice. Shame on me. Seems like there have been a handful of long range SSW fake outs this winter. I’d like it to happen but not going to hold my breath just yet.

None that I’ve been bullish over.

 

This would be the final warming, technically. Where the vortex breaks up and is replaced by an anticyclone for the warm season. A “dynamic” final warming is analogous to a SSW, for all intents and purposes, though.