March 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Mr Marine Layer 1422]

Meteorological spring starts a day late this year. Astronomical spring never does.

 

Welcome to March. Roller coaster weather is not too far off.

 

 

[snow_wizard 11723]

I'm going to predict a -2F temperature departure for the month of March for the Puget Sound region.

[Ray 72]

32 degrees this morning.  Sunny with a nice coating of frost.

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

32 here this morning first spring freeze and freeze #23 this cold season.

[Jginmartini 3810]

Low of 30

currently 31*  

[seattleweatherguy 480]

I predict one round of snow 1 to 3 inches locally around the puget sound, 5 inches in Vancouver area. Then at the end of the month, 80s

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

I predict one round of snow 1 to 3 inches locally around the puget sound, 5 inches in Vancouver area. Then at the end of the month, 80s

That’s kind of how last year was...well not quite that much snow near the sound. Still we had snow in the first week and in the latter half of the month temps got into the upper 70s and lower 80s in spots. It looks chilly the first week of March this year but I doubt there will be much excitement below 500-1000’. Maybe if we get lucky and get precip at the right time.

[snow_wizard 11723]

No doubt March is starting off cold.  This morning it was freezing at around 4am and by 6am we had some wet snow falling.  The models continue to play with fire in the week two period.  Some real potential for a period of much below normal temps at some point.

[snow_wizard 11723]

32 here this morning first spring freeze and freeze #23 this cold season.

 

I've had 47 days with freezing low temps.  Quite a difference!

[Omegaraptor 2386]

Polar vortex.

[MossMan 10597]

37 here and cloudy.

[Mr Marine Layer 1422]

March starts off cold here in California too after 4 days of 80s last week.

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

No doubt March is starting off cold.  This morning it was freezing at around 4am and by 6am we had some wet snow falling.  The models continue to play with fire in the week two period.  Some real potential for a period of much below normal temps at some point.

looks chilly definitely for early March. Doesn’t look super great for snow down below 500’ though unfortunately.

[MossMan 10597]

Now heavy drizzle.

[Jesse 8931]

[Omegaraptor 2386]

Next weekend looks like a great weekend to ski.

[Jginmartini 3810]

I've had 47 days with freezing low temps.  Quite a difference!

 

At least in our area freezes have not been and issue.  This morning the  car was covered with heavy lumpy ice. 

Still feels like winter out

[snow_wizard 11723]

looks chilly definitely for early March. Doesn’t look super great for snow down below 500’ though unfortunately.

 

The models are putting a strong positive height anom near the sweet spot for part of week two.  Don't rule anything out yet.

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

The models are putting a strong positive height anom near the sweet spot for part of week two. Don't rule anything out yet.

I was just talking about this weekend’s upcoming cold trough. Way too early to make an assumption about part of week two. We’ve all seen long range promise fizzle too many times this winter to get excited about anything past 5 days unfortunately.

[TacomaWaWx 4399]

40 with a couple sunbreaks popping out now. Should be another nice day.

[Omegaraptor 2386]

Portland has not had more than 3” of snow in March since 1951.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5627]

Portland has not had more than 3” of snow in March since 1951.

 

EUG had a weird event back in late March 2012 that dropped several inches IIRC.

 

Got down to 32F berfore midnight overnight so 2 more freezes for EUG.

[Phil 11775]

Posted this in the wrong thread earlier.

 

The 12z GFS continues with the historically high amplitude polar vortex state right through mid-March, but bumps it out of the western Arctic/AK, into central Canada, with some indications of a wave-1 trying to develop.

 

If a dynamic final warming does unfold this year with that kind of PV placement (unlikely but possible), there’d probably be some big time CONUS cold in April, probably centered in the west-central states given the MJO cycle and wavetrain seasonality.

 

If it’s just a typical radiative-catabolic degradation, then it’s a snoozefest. I have my expectations set to zero as usual, but a minority of the EPS weeklies suggested a dynamic final warming outcome in late March. So, who knows.

[Omegaraptor 2386]

Looked at Feb 2020 stats in SC-ACIS for northern CA. Tons of 0.00” stations in there, including some normally very wet foothill areas like Grass Valley/Nevada City. Not good.

 

San Francisco is at 0.00” for Feb making it the driest Feb since 1864.

[Phil 11775]

Definitely noticing the Sun angles intensifying over the last few weeks. It’s to the point where the ground feels warm to the touch even on chilly days like yesterday.

 

Hopefully a super volcano erupts tomorrow and there’s no summer this year. It’s just a pointless season.

[Mr Marine Layer 1422]

Definitely noticing the Sun angles intensifying over the last few weeks. It’s to the point where the ground feels warm to the touch even on chilly days like yesterday.

Hopefully a super volcano erupts tomorrow and there’s no summer this year. It’s just a pointless season.

Hope you get record snowfall in March and April.

[Phil 11775]

About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

[Phil 11775]

[snow_wizard 11723]

About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

 

The tropical Pacific seems to be releasing a lot of heat this season.  That is almost certainly the reason global temps have failed to react to the solar min yet.  Once the process is complete I think global temps will plummet.

[TigerWoodsLibido 5627]

All I can say is, I hope that zonal, -PNA-lite pattern was worth it for the Andrews and other zonal flow lovers.

 

Because that unfortunate midwinter pattern/forcing transition could have some serious consequences in the 4CH/death ridge department this summer.

 

Certainly not a given, but it could go to hell in a heartbeat if the wrong button is pushed.

 

We're used to it in the south valley.  30 or more days with 90F+ temps.

[ShawniganLake 5467]

About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

It tells us the earth is warming?

[Phil 11775]

Hope you get record snowfall in March and April.

Thanks man, but I’m mostly rooting against it now.

 

We were due for a dud winter and now it’s off our backs.

[snow_wizard 11723]

I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late.  It has happened before.  I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum.  In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.

 

I have no idea why the green background happened.

 

[MossMan 10597]

The rain just stopped. 39 degrees.

.02” on the month. Not a nice day!

[HighlandExperience 1458]

[Phil 11775]

[MossMan 10597]

 

I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late. It has happened before. I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum. In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.

 

I have no idea why the green background happened.

Jim is feeling green today!

[Deweydog 14107]

Whoa!

 

Snow Wiz has shaken Rush and Trump’s influence and has GONE GREEN! Last time this happened was January 1950....

[snow_wizard 11723]

Nope. At least not directly. Because even if you set the global SST anomaly to zero, this is still the largest+most intense warm pool observed in the satellite era.

 

 

I'm hoping this means a crash is coming.  Nature kind of likes to work in that way.

[ShawniganLake 5467]

28F here this morning.

[snow_wizard 11723]

The EPS continues it's favorable trend toward a well placed GOA / Aluetian block during week 2.  Could be something brewing there.

[Phil 11775]

I'm hoping this means a crash is coming. Nature kind of likes to work in that way.

That is true, but the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool is a massive heat engine and, with infrequent exceptions, it tends to cycle it’s preferred low frequency state over multiple centuries. Decadal/sub-centennial gyrations are triggered via completely different mechanisms and the changes to heat flow/budgeting associated with them are possibly inverted from those associated with the longer term/lower frequency variations, which is interesting.

 

The warm pool was monstrous + northern shifted during the MWP and throughout the early/middle Holocene during that warm climate optimum. And contracted/displaced to the southwest during the LIA and much of the late Holocene neoglacial. Those transitions didn’t occur overnight and even the flip from the mid-Holocene climate optimum to the late Holocene neoglacial period took at least a century or two.

 

Though, at the moment it’s not meridionally anomalous in its extent. It’s just longitudinally broad and very intense. Intriguing to say the least.

[Mr Marine Layer 1422]

The tropical Pacific seems to be releasing a lot of heat this season.  That is almost certainly the reason global temps have failed to react to the solar min yet.  Once the process is complete I think global temps will plummet.

And they will blame it all on climate change if it does.

[snow_wizard 11723]

The GFS and EPS control indicate a cutoff low over the GOA downstream of the blocking in the 10 to 15 day period is going to give the models fits on the details for a potential significant cold snap.  Looks like we have a shot though.

[snow_wizard 11723]

That is true, but the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool is a massive heat engine and, with infrequent exceptions, it tends to cycle it’s preferred low frequency state over multiple centuries.

 

The warm pool was monstrous + northern shifted during the MWP and throughout the early/middle Holocene during that warm climate optimum. And contracted/displaced to the southwest during the LIA and much of the late Holocene neoglacial.

 

Though, at the moment it’s not meridionally anomalous in its extent. It’s just longitudinally broad and very intense. Intriguing to say the least.

 

That doesn't mean it won't have periods where it lets up though.  No way that thing sits there nonstop for years.

[Phil 11775]

That doesn't mean it won't have periods where it lets up though. No way that thing sits there nonstop for years.

Yes, I edited my post to clarify that. There’s higher frequency variability superimposed on the lower frequency variability. But it’s of a different nature, occurs through different trigger mechanisms, and has vastly different implications for heat flow/budgeting with respect to time.

[TT-SEA 3733]

12Z EPS

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5627]

And they will blame it all on climate change if it does.

 

Well the climate does change...over long periods of time. The alarmists are unfortunately way too focused on. Actual atmospheric scientists will give a far more scholarly explanation.

[Front Ranger 7605]

[Timmy_Supercell 2223]

According to NWS Medford I had the 5th driest February on record. I would also have liked a comparison to other warm Februaries, this one was a tad warmer than the couple we had in the drought years last decade.