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This is incredibly to see in late winter here.

Finally, it is official! We will be moving to Post Falls, ID in June into an apartment, then we should have our custom home completed late next spring in the Sandpoint area (shown below) - Sandpoint w

Current conditions:

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I'm going to predict a -2F temperature departure for the month of March for the Puget Sound region.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I predict one round of snow 1 to 3 inches locally around the puget sound, 5 inches in Vancouver area. Then at the end of the month, 80s

That’s kind of how last year was...well not quite that much snow near the sound. Still we had snow in the first week and in the latter half of the month temps got into the upper 70s and lower 80s in spots. It looks chilly the first week of March this year but I doubt there will be much excitement below 500-1000’. Maybe if we get lucky and get precip at the right time.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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No doubt March is starting off cold.  This morning it was freezing at around 4am and by 6am we had some wet snow falling.  The models continue to play with fire in the week two period.  Some real potential for a period of much below normal temps at some point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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32 here this morning first spring freeze and freeze #23 this cold season.

 

I've had 47 days with freezing low temps.  Quite a difference!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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No doubt March is starting off cold.  This morning it was freezing at around 4am and by 6am we had some wet snow falling.  The models continue to play with fire in the week two period.  Some real potential for a period of much below normal temps at some point.

looks chilly definitely for early March. Doesn’t look super great for snow down below 500’ though unfortunately.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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looks chilly definitely for early March. Doesn’t look super great for snow down below 500’ though unfortunately.

 

The models are putting a strong positive height anom near the sweet spot for part of week two.  Don't rule anything out yet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The models are putting a strong positive height anom near the sweet spot for part of week two. Don't rule anything out yet.

I was just talking about this weekend’s upcoming cold trough. Way too early to make an assumption about part of week two. We’ve all seen long range promise fizzle too many times this winter to get excited about anything past 5 days unfortunately.
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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-15

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Cold season rainfall-32.09”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Portland has not had more than 3” of snow in March since 1951.

 

EUG had a weird event back in late March 2012 that dropped several inches IIRC.

 

Got down to 32F berfore midnight overnight so 2 more freezes for EUG.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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Posted this in the wrong thread earlier.

 

The 12z GFS continues with the historically high amplitude polar vortex state right through mid-March, but bumps it out of the western Arctic/AK, into central Canada, with some indications of a wave-1 trying to develop.

 

If a dynamic final warming does unfold this year with that kind of PV placement (unlikely but possible), there’d probably be some big time CONUS cold in April, probably centered in the west-central states given the MJO cycle and wavetrain seasonality.

 

If it’s just a typical radiative-catabolic degradation, then it’s a snoozefest. I have my expectations set to zero as usual, but a minority of the EPS weeklies suggested a dynamic final warming outcome in late March. So, who knows.

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Looked at Feb 2020 stats in SC-ACIS for northern CA. Tons of 0.00” stations in there, including some normally very wet foothill areas like Grass Valley/Nevada City. Not good.

 

San Francisco is at 0.00” for Feb making it the driest Feb since 1864.

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Definitely noticing the Sun angles intensifying over the last few weeks. It’s to the point where the ground feels warm to the touch even on chilly days like yesterday.

 

Hopefully a super volcano erupts tomorrow and there’s no summer this year. It’s just a pointless season.

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Definitely noticing the Sun angles intensifying over the last few weeks. It’s to the point where the ground feels warm to the touch even on chilly days like yesterday.

Hopefully a super volcano erupts tomorrow and there’s no summer this year. It’s just a pointless season.

Hope you get record snowfall in March and April.

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About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

eVWF1xD.jpg

DUKlwDP.jpg

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About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

eVWF1xD.jpg

DUKlwDP.jpg

 

The tropical Pacific seems to be releasing a lot of heat this season.  That is almost certainly the reason global temps have failed to react to the solar min yet.  Once the process is complete I think global temps will plummet.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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All I can say is, I hope that zonal, -PNA-lite pattern was worth it for the Andrews and other zonal flow lovers.

 

Because that unfortunate midwinter pattern/forcing transition could have some serious consequences in the 4CH/death ridge department this summer.

 

Certainly not a given, but it could go to hell in a heartbeat if the wrong button is pushed.

 

We're used to it in the south valley.  30 or more days with 90F+ temps.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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About that Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Climatologically, it contains the warmest waters on Earth, year round.

 

Right now, it’s a behemoth, both in size and intensity. It’s both much larger than average, and much warmer than average.

 

When the warmest pool of waters on Earth is warmer than average and larger than average, it tells you something.

 

eVWF1xD.jpg

DUKlwDP.jpg

It tells us the earth is warming?
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Hope you get record snowfall in March and April.

Thanks man, but I’m mostly rooting against it now.

 

We were due for a dud winter and now it’s off our backs.

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I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late.  It has happened before.  I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum.  In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.


 


I have no idea why the green background happened.


 


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I'm kind of stoked about the potential for some kind of a historic late season event. We had some historic cold setups in late September / October so this might end up being a good season both very early and very late. It has happened before. I love the fact the sun is still dead, and may in fact be headed for it's longest spotless streak yet on this minimum. In spite of the core of this winter being a dud I still like the big picture.

 

I have no idea why the green background happened.

Jim is feeling green today!
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Nope. At least not directly. Because even if you set the global SST anomaly to zero, this is still the largest+most intense warm pool observed in the satellite era.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

 

I'm hoping this means a crash is coming.  Nature kind of likes to work in that way.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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The EPS continues it's favorable trend toward a well placed GOA / Aluetian block during week 2.  Could be something brewing there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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I'm hoping this means a crash is coming. Nature kind of likes to work in that way.

That is true, but the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool is a massive heat engine and, with infrequent exceptions, it tends to cycle it’s preferred low frequency state over multiple centuries. Decadal/sub-centennial gyrations are triggered via completely different mechanisms and the changes to heat flow/budgeting associated with them are possibly inverted from those associated with the longer term/lower frequency variations, which is interesting.

 

The warm pool was monstrous + northern shifted during the MWP and throughout the early/middle Holocene during that warm climate optimum. And contracted/displaced to the southwest during the LIA and much of the late Holocene neoglacial. Those transitions didn’t occur overnight and even the flip from the mid-Holocene climate optimum to the late Holocene neoglacial period took at least a century or two.

 

Though, at the moment it’s not meridionally anomalous in its extent. It’s just longitudinally broad and very intense. Intriguing to say the least.

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The tropical Pacific seems to be releasing a lot of heat this season.  That is almost certainly the reason global temps have failed to react to the solar min yet.  Once the process is complete I think global temps will plummet.

And they will blame it all on climate change if it does.

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The GFS and EPS control indicate a cutoff low over the GOA downstream of the blocking in the 10 to 15 day period is going to give the models fits on the details for a potential significant cold snap.  Looks like we have a shot though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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That is true, but the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool is a massive heat engine and, with infrequent exceptions, it tends to cycle it’s preferred low frequency state over multiple centuries.

 

The warm pool was monstrous + northern shifted during the MWP and throughout the early/middle Holocene during that warm climate optimum. And contracted/displaced to the southwest during the LIA and much of the late Holocene neoglacial.

 

Though, at the moment it’s not meridionally anomalous in its extent. It’s just longitudinally broad and very intense. Intriguing to say the least.

 

That doesn't mean it won't have periods where it lets up though.  No way that thing sits there nonstop for years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 37

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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That doesn't mean it won't have periods where it lets up though. No way that thing sits there nonstop for years.

Yes, I edited my post to clarify that. There’s higher frequency variability superimposed on the lower frequency variability. But it’s of a different nature, occurs through different trigger mechanisms, and has vastly different implications for heat flow/budgeting with respect to time.

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And they will blame it all on climate change if it does.

 

Well the climate does change...over long periods of time. The alarmists are unfortunately way too focused on. Actual atmospheric scientists will give a far more scholarly explanation.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Feb 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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According to NWS Medford I had the 5th driest February on record. I would also have liked a comparison to other warm Februaries, this one was a tad warmer than the couple we had in the drought years last decade.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 15.20"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 03.50" (29%)
Feb '21 - 07.10" (78%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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