GeorgeWx Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 ECMWF roasts California. Even the far northern parts just a couple hundred miles away. A little more amplification on the ridge and Oregon/Washington roast too. EDIT: ECMWF throws Oregon in the oven by day 9. What do you know.Ecmwf not caving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 What a terrible pattern. Invert this please! Unlikely to verify that way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Ecmwf not caving.Both the 00z Euro and EPS looked a lot less amplified, though. That lack of amplification is what has been allowing rain chances to sneak in next weekend on the GFS. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the models flip back at some point. I would expect at least the back half of the holiday weekend to be dry and rather warm. Maybe even hot if that next trough offshore decides to really dig like earlier Euro runs were showing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Rain has stopped here now. Up to 1/4”. Wonder if we will see any more rotate in today. The band has now moved to the north and west of the metro area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 CFS really backing off the Nina.That’s good news if you want a Niña. Lol. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 We went from record warmth over the mothers day weekend to 5 hours of snow so far this morning. We usually get our last snow storm right around the memorial day weekend so this one is right on schedule. I am hoping that the heat wave showing up in long range comes to fruition. Last year we only had about 60 days of summer weather so a nice long summer this year would be nice. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 FWIW, that upwelling wave in the east-central Pacific is the most potent since 2010. Could be a good year for Jim/Jesse et al. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 We went from record warmth over the mothers day weekend to 5 hours of snow so far this morning. We usually get our last snow storm right around the memorial day weekend so this one is right on schedule. I am hoping that the heat wave showing up in long range comes to fruition. Last year we only had about 60 days of summer weather so a nice long summer this year would be nice. Feeling a little better about drought prospects down there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Feeling a little better about drought prospects down there?This winter has been a total write off so might as well enjoy the drought and heat. This has been a top 10 dry winter for our area. Some area's from the North Bay to the North Coast are having their driest winter ever recorded. Even drier than 1976.I know you have a Yosemite trip coming up so hopefully the waterfalls are still going. The snow survey take at Echo summit on May 1st was only at 3% of normal for May 1st. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 This winter has been a total write off so might as well enjoy the drought and heat. This has been a top 10 dry winter for our area. Some area's from the North Bay to the North Coast are having their driest winter ever recorded. Even drier than 1976.I know you have a Yosemite trip coming up so hopefully the waterfalls are still going. The snow survey take at Echo summit on May 1st was only at 3% of normal for May 1st. Well I hope the hot ridging next week pans out for you guys. Maybe some dry and gusty winds too. The wildland firefighters are probably getting bored. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 It’s been so nice to see some persistent ULL patterns return this May after being basically absent the last two years. This is how we get near to above average rainfall at this point in the season. A strong jet usually just means a northward displaced jet at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 It’s been so nice to see some persistent ULL patterns return this May after being basically absent the last two years. This is how we get near to above average rainfall at this point in the season. A strong jet usually just means a northward displaced jet at this point.The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool + Pacific Walker/Hadley structures (IE: the primary drivers of your warm season climate) are definitely more 2005/2007-like, and seem to be continuing the trend that way. The convergence around 100E-140E with the dominant EHEM low pass standing wave is not something we’ve seen at all since the flip into that stagnant WPAC/+PMM regime that started in 2013. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 In similar cases with the IPWP retracting into the MC/IO domain, it was a precursor to a longer term PMM/PDO flip. There’ve been several false alarms/failed attempts over the last 3+ years with respect to that, but this is on a different level. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 In similar cases with the IPWP retracting into the MC/IO domain, it was a precursor to a longer term PMM/PDO flip. There’ve been several false alarms/failed attempts over the last 3+ years with respect to that, but this is on a different level.If climate system is legit with this move, we’ll know by the summer solstice based on the EASM/low pass evolution. A progression analogous to 2005 or 2007 is well within the realm of possibility. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 12z GFS ensembles hint at a coolish and variable pattern continuing into early June now. Seems too good to be true... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 57 now...clouds have thickened up. Looks like some showers have started to form around the southern WA cascades from roughly Mt.Rainier south. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Euro has officially caved. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 ECMWF has completed its caving rather quickly... but it was inevitable since the GFS was holding firm. Now shows heavy rain for Sunday and Monday... as opposed to sunny and warm on the 12Z run yesterday. I realize this is much better... got it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 ECMWF has completed its caving rather quickly... but it was inevitable since the GFS was holding firm. Now shows heavy rain for Sunday and Monday... as opposed to sunny and warm on the 12Z run yesterday. I realize this is much better... got it.Nothing wrong with clouds and rain. You can always go outside and enjoy it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Nothing wrong with clouds and rain. You can always go outside and enjoy it. Thanks for the update Phil! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Thanks for the update Phil!If you wanna flip the bird at Mother Nature for drowning your Memorial Day weekend, go and spend time outside anyway as if it were sunny. That’ll show her. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Euro has officially caved.I saw that. I will still be skeptical until I see the EPS really give in. It was adamant about a very warm and ridgy period starting around next Saturday or Sunday for a few runs in a row there. Even then, I would give it a few days before feeling really confident we will have a good holiday weekend. It seems to be a pattern the models are struggling with, and more changes down the road certainly wouldn’t surprise me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Another moderate shower rotating in here. 55 degrees. Have been really enjoying the refreshing weather. The landscape has turned so brilliantly green the last week or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Both the 00z Euro and EPS looked a lot less amplified, though. That lack of amplification is what has been allowing rain chances to sneak in next weekend on the GFS. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the models flip back at some point. I would expect at least the back half of the holiday weekend to be dry and rather warm. Maybe even hot if that next trough offshore decides to really dig like earlier Euro runs were showing.Chances of rain are increasing for the long weekend. Tim got this one right. The Gfs has been better than Ecmwf lately. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Interesting seasonal trends across the NATL domain so far in 2020. We’ve also had the least amount of seasonality in our curve in recorded history. So far. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Heat goes north of the 42nd at the end of the run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 ECMWF has completed its caving rather quickly... but it was inevitable since the GFS was holding firm. Now shows heavy rain for Sunday and Monday... as opposed to sunny and warm on the 12Z run yesterday. I realize this is much better... got it.Phew! I thought we would have to deal with terrible sunny and warm weather...So disgusted just thinking about it. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Phew! I thought we would have to deal with terrible sunny and warm weather...So disgusted just thinking about it.He’ll be with you shortly. Feel free to have a seat and read a three year old Sports Illustrated while you wait for your punishment. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Heat goes north of the 42nd at the end of the run.Gets hot in Eureka. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeorgeWx Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 We went from record warmth over the mothers day weekend to 5 hours of snow so far this morning. We usually get our last snow storm right around the memorial day weekend so this one is right on schedule. I am hoping that the heat wave showing up in long range comes to fruition. Last year we only had about 60 days of summer weather so a nice long summer this year would be nice.You will like the12z Ecmwf. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 60 and cloudy here now....lots of showers up in the cascades but nothing in the south Puget sound lowlands yet. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Poor abused sun lovers For the record, I might give MossMan crap from time to time, but I don’t think he’s a bad dude at all. No one here really approaches Tim’s level of psychosis. Although you have been making a rather strong case for yourself lately. What a load of crap. You are psychotic and seem to be getting worse. You are constantly playing this passive-aggressive preference war even though no one really cares any more. So many Trump-like qualities. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Edits!!!I had more to say! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 18, 2020 Report Share Posted May 18, 2020 You have only had 13,000 less things to say than me. That’s impressive considering I actually talk about the weather sometimes too, which gives me a comparative handicap. But anything above 20,000 is rarefied territory here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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