May 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[GeorgeWx]

ECMWF roasts California. Even the far northern parts just a couple hundred miles away. A little more amplification on the ridge and Oregon/Washington roast too.

 

EDIT: ECMWF throws Oregon in the oven by day 9. What do you know.

Ecmwf not caving.

[GeorgeWx]

What a terrible pattern. Invert this please!

 

Unlikely to verify that way.

[Jesse]

Ecmwf not caving.

Both the 00z Euro and EPS looked a lot less amplified, though. That lack of amplification is what has been allowing rain chances to sneak in next weekend on the GFS.

 

That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the models flip back at some point. I would expect at least the back half of the holiday weekend to be dry and rather warm. Maybe even hot if that next trough offshore decides to really dig like earlier Euro runs were showing.

[Jesse]

Rain has stopped here now. Up to 1/4”.

 

Wonder if we will see any more rotate in today. The band has now moved to the north and west of the metro area.

[Phil]

CFS really backing off the Nina.

That’s good news if you want a Niña. Lol.

 

[AlTahoe]

We went from record warmth over the mothers day weekend to 5 hours of snow so far this morning. We usually get our last snow storm right around the memorial day weekend so this one is right on schedule. I am hoping that the heat wave showing up in long range comes to fruition. Last year we only had about 60 days of summer weather so a nice long summer this year would be nice. 

[Phil]

FWIW, that upwelling wave in the east-central Pacific is the most potent since 2010.

 

Could be a good year for Jim/Jesse et al.

[Jesse]

We went from record warmth over the mothers day weekend to 5 hours of snow so far this morning. We usually get our last snow storm right around the memorial day weekend so this one is right on schedule. I am hoping that the heat wave showing up in long range comes to fruition. Last year we only had about 60 days of summer weather so a nice long summer this year would be nice.

 

Feeling a little better about drought prospects down there?

[AlTahoe]

Feeling a little better about drought prospects down there?

This winter has been a total write off so might as well enjoy the drought and heat. This has been a top 10 dry winter for our area. Some area's from the North Bay to the North Coast are having their driest winter ever recorded. Even drier than 1976.

I know you have a Yosemite trip coming up so hopefully the waterfalls are still going. The snow survey take at Echo summit on May 1st was only at 3% of normal for May 1st. 

[Jesse]

This winter has been a total write off so might as well enjoy the drought and heat. This has been a top 10 dry winter for our area. Some area's from the North Bay to the North Coast are having their driest winter ever recorded. Even drier than 1976.

I know you have a Yosemite trip coming up so hopefully the waterfalls are still going. The snow survey take at Echo summit on May 1st was only at 3% of normal for May 1st.

 

Well I hope the hot ridging next week pans out for you guys. Maybe some dry and gusty winds too. The wildland firefighters are probably getting bored.

[Jesse]

It’s been so nice to see some persistent ULL patterns return this May after being basically absent the last two years. This is how we get near to above average rainfall at this point in the season. A strong jet usually just means a northward displaced jet at this point.

[Phil]

It’s been so nice to see some persistent ULL patterns return this May after being basically absent the last two years. This is how we get near to above average rainfall at this point in the season. A strong jet usually just means a northward displaced jet at this point.

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool + Pacific Walker/Hadley structures (IE: the primary drivers of your warm season climate) are definitely more 2005/2007-like, and seem to be continuing the trend that way. The convergence around 100E-140E with the dominant EHEM low pass standing wave is not something we’ve seen at all since the flip into that stagnant WPAC/+PMM regime that started in 2013.

[Phil]

In similar cases with the IPWP retracting into the MC/IO domain, it was a precursor to a longer term PMM/PDO flip. There’ve been several false alarms/failed attempts over the last 3+ years with respect to that, but this is on a different level.

[Phil]

In similar cases with the IPWP retracting into the MC/IO domain, it was a precursor to a longer term PMM/PDO flip. There’ve been several false alarms/failed attempts over the last 3+ years with respect to that, but this is on a different level.

If climate system is legit with this move, we’ll know by the summer solstice based on the EASM/low pass evolution.

 

A progression analogous to 2005 or 2007 is well within the realm of possibility.

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles hint at a coolish and variable pattern continuing into early June now. Seems too good to be true...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

57 now...clouds have thickened up. Looks like some showers have started to form around the southern WA cascades from roughly Mt.Rainier south.

[Kayla]

Euro has officially caved.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF has completed its caving rather quickly... but it was inevitable since the GFS was holding firm.

 

Now shows heavy rain for Sunday and Monday... as opposed to sunny and warm on the 12Z run yesterday.

 

I realize this is much better... got it.   

[Phil]

ECMWF has completed its caving rather quickly... but it was inevitable since the GFS was holding firm.

 

Now shows heavy rain for Sunday and Monday... as opposed to sunny and warm on the 12Z run yesterday.

 

I realize this is much better... got it.

Nothing wrong with clouds and rain.

 

You can always go outside and enjoy it.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing wrong with clouds and rain.

 

You can always go outside and enjoy it.

 

 

Thanks for the update Phil!     

[Phil]

Thanks for the update Phil!

If you wanna flip the bird at Mother Nature for drowning your Memorial Day weekend, go and spend time outside anyway as if it were sunny. That’ll show her.

[Jesse]

Euro has officially caved.

I saw that. I will still be skeptical until I see the EPS really give in. It was adamant about a very warm and ridgy period starting around next Saturday or Sunday for a few runs in a row there.

 

Even then, I would give it a few days before feeling really confident we will have a good holiday weekend. It seems to be a pattern the models are struggling with, and more changes down the road certainly wouldn’t surprise me.

[Jesse]

Another moderate shower rotating in here. 55 degrees. Have been really enjoying the refreshing weather. The landscape has turned so brilliantly green the last week or so.

[GeorgeWx]

Both the 00z Euro and EPS looked a lot less amplified, though. That lack of amplification is what has been allowing rain chances to sneak in next weekend on the GFS.

 

That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the models flip back at some point. I would expect at least the back half of the holiday weekend to be dry and rather warm. Maybe even hot if that next trough offshore decides to really dig like earlier Euro runs were showing.

Chances of rain are increasing for the long weekend. Tim got this one right. The Gfs has been better than Ecmwf lately.

[Jesse]

[Phil]

Interesting seasonal trends across the NATL domain so far in 2020. We’ve also had the least amount of seasonality in our curve in recorded history. So far.

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

Heat goes north of the 42nd at the end of the run.

[Jesse]

[Phil]

[MossMan]

ECMWF has completed its caving rather quickly... but it was inevitable since the GFS was holding firm.

 

Now shows heavy rain for Sunday and Monday... as opposed to sunny and warm on the 12Z run yesterday.

 

I realize this is much better... got it.

Phew! I thought we would have to deal with terrible sunny and warm weather...So disgusted just thinking about it.

[Deweydog]

Phew! I thought we would have to deal with terrible sunny and warm weather...So disgusted just thinking about it.

He’ll be with you shortly. Feel free to have a seat and read a three year old Sports Illustrated while you wait for your punishment.

[GeorgeWx]

Heat goes north of the 42nd at the end of the run.

Gets hot in Eureka.

[Jesse]

[GeorgeWx]

We went from record warmth over the mothers day weekend to 5 hours of snow so far this morning. We usually get our last snow storm right around the memorial day weekend so this one is right on schedule. I am hoping that the heat wave showing up in long range comes to fruition. Last year we only had about 60 days of summer weather so a nice long summer this year would be nice.

You will like the12z Ecmwf.

[TacomaWaWx]

60 and cloudy here now....lots of showers up in the cascades but nothing in the south Puget sound lowlands yet.

[TT-SEA]

Poor abused sun lovers

 

For the record, I might give MossMan crap from time to time, but I don’t think he’s a bad dude at all. No one here really approaches Tim’s level of psychosis. Although you have been making a rather strong case for yourself lately.

 

 

What a load of crap.   You are psychotic and seem to be getting worse. You are constantly playing this passive-aggressive preference war  even though no one really cares any more.        

 

So many Trump-like qualities. 

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

Edits!!!

I had more to say!

[Deweydog]

[Jesse]

 

You have only had 13,000 less things to say than me. That’s impressive considering I actually talk about the weather sometimes too, which gives me a comparative handicap. But anything above 20,000 is rarefied territory here.