August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

According to @Phil, fall will start the first weeks of September

Not a good sign...

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I hope your inbox is full of apologies from all the people who have mocked your prescient predictions. 

Because its smokey for a couple days?    Onshore flow from NW will return soon down there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably a terrible sign for winter, but it seems like a dream...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Because its smokey for a couple days?    Onshore flow from NW will return soon down there.

He was a leading voice telling us not to listen to the out of touch calling for a cooler summer. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ask @Phil about what the smoke was like earlier this summer in his backyard.

No smoke down here in coastal GA. Very clean air compared to back home this year.

Heat indices surpass 110°F every day though. And it starts very early in the morning. Oregon heat ain’t got nothing on this.

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

this perception of 'delayed seasons' again

 

later springs (last year), deeper in the summer heat waves ((this is only like the 5th time in Spokane history since 1889, it's taken this late to reach 100 (still hasn't but should today), most recent was 2008)).  curious if fall/freezes are late too this year

Good chance that ends this winter with east-based El Niño, though. February should be quite different from recent years.

Or maybe not. Lol. We’ll see.

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

For how long? Was it so bad that it burned his lungs inside his house for days on end? Has he had multiple brain surgeries that are exacerbating the problem?

I’m sorry you’re dealing with that, man. Not fair at all. Sending you healing vibes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Friend who retired to the Oregon Coast just posted this, currently 64 there. I should let him know because of warmer offshore waters it will probably hit 100+ there today. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Because its smokey for a couple days?    Onshore flow from NW will return soon down there.

Why can’t Tiger just get an air filter for his gated mansion for the next couple days????

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He was a leading voice telling us not to listen to the out of touch calling for a cooler summer. 

You’re off the rails today. I don’t remember anyone calling for a cool summer.

[DareDuck]

20 minutes ago, Dave said:

At least it should be short lived. Winds should shift to onshore later today. I won't be venturing outside much today. 

Yea we’ve been getting more of the smoke out in central OR than Eugene has. A little break for a few days then it’ll switch back. 

[YahRaEl]

78° currently

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably a terrible sign for winter, but it seems like a dream...

This has been what @Phil has been saying. For the sake of my garden I hope it is mild/wet and the frost isn't early. But it seems all the data say an early frost this season. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Because its smokey for a couple days?    Onshore flow from NW will return soon down there.

I wish you could experience this and be in my head right now.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Why can’t Tiger just get an air filter for his gated mansion for the next couple days????

Sucks for everyone down there.   We experienced the same thing in the Puget Sound area for almost 2 months last year and not out of the woods this year.

[TacomaWx]

Good lord almighty. Anyways up to 76 already after a low of 64. Went through June and July with 0 +60 lows…but this month the overnight lows have been insane. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

You’re off the rails today. I don’t remember anyone calling for a cool summer.

I love the analysis you provide Phil, but your specific predictions are a complete disaster. You've bombed this summer harder than anything I can remember, you can nuance it all you want, but there is absolutely no daylight between this summer and any of our other summers over the past 10 years, by some metrics this may end up the worst, we will see. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I wish you could experience this and be in my head right now.

It was apocalyptic up here last September and October.   I know exactly what its like and its horrible.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I wish you could experience this and be in my head right now.

Whenever he gets you down just remember the psychological profile of him I gave you and that should put a smile on your face. ;). 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I love the analysis you provide Phil, but your specific predictions are a complete disaster. You've bombed this summer harder than anything I can remember, you can nuance it all you want, but there is absolutely no daylight between this summer and any of our other summers over the past 10 years, by some metrics this may end up the worst, we will see. 

I agree with this... in some ways this summer is worse than last year because it turned dry this year at the end of April and last year it was wet until June 20th.  

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Yea we’ve been getting more of the smoke out in central OR than Eugene has. A little break for a few days then it’ll switch back. 

Didn’t seem horrible while I was there…most days were hazy then it cleared out pretty well on Saturday/Sunday. Then it came back yesterday when we were heading out. 

[ShawniganLake]

That dry cold front is a nightmare fire scenario for Thursday and Friday in BC and eastern Washington.  At least it should push the smoke off to the east but the forest service is already warning people on alert to prepare to leave.  It’s likely that they will have to pull crews off of the fire fronts late in the day Thursday. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whenever he gets you down just remember the psychological profile of him I gave you and that should put a smile on your face. ;). 

You are the super troll on here.   

I wouldn't wish the choking smokefest we had for weeks last fall on anyone.    It was a nightmare.  

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

all that shiit smoke will be over here and settle in, I hate this time of year.  headed to the east coast (SC) in a week and again in October.  can't wait

You might end up regretting that if these heat indices don’t settle down. It’s something special.

Then again at least there’s A/C. The smokestorm in June was one of the most unpleasant weather events in recent memory simply because you couldn’t really escape it, that s**t gets into the house and carpets trap the smell. Took a week for that sweet-ish campfire odor to vacate the premises.

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I love the analysis you provide Phil, but your specific predictions are a complete disaster. You've bombed this summer harder than anything I can remember, you can nuance it all you want, but there is absolutely no daylight between this summer and any of our other summers over the past 10 years, by some metrics this may end up the worst, we will see. 

Actually my prediction was spot on. At least so far. You’re just too stupid to read it.

It’s all in the summer forecast thread.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It was apocalyptic up here last September and October.   I know exactly what its like and its horrible.   

The Bolt Creek Fire was pretty small, about 15,000 acres. At the same time east of Eugene the Cedar Creek Fire burned 127,000 acres. The Fall Creek Fire producing the smoke around Eugene right now is over 22,000 acres and the Lookout Fire about 10-15 miles north is about 2100 acres. 

In 2021, a year many Puget Sound posters remarked on as being "smoke free" the Bull Complex Fire just to our east burned about 25,000 acres, while the Rough Patch and Middle Fork Complex Fires burned a combined 80,000 acres just east of Eugene. They all started in late July/early August of that year. 

So no, just imagine how apocalyptic all that would have seemed...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually my prediction was spot on. At least so far. You’re just too stupid to read it.

It’s all in the summer forecast thread.

Oh so we resort to juvenile name calling, come on Phil, at least just admit you bombed another forecast. It should be old hat by now! 

Unless I missed you calling for non-stop torching and all time record heat in August?!

Edited August 15, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[BLI snowman]

44 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

this perception of 'delayed seasons' again

 

later springs (last year), deeper in the summer heat waves ((this is only like the 5th time in Spokane history since 1889, it's taken this late to reach 100 (still hasn't but should today), most recent was 2008)).  curious if fall/freezes are late too this year

Not sure this year counts as a delayed summer, since our May was basically the equivalent of a 1950s-70s July.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whenever he gets you down just remember the psychological profile of him I gave you and that should put a smile on your face. ;). 

Knock it off. Seriously.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What a tease...

What do we make of this tropical moisture flooding the zone in the SW?

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Bolt Creek Fire was pretty small, about 15,000 acres. At the same time east of Eugene the Cedar Creek Fire burned 127,000 acres. The Fall Creek Fire producing the smoke around Eugene right now is over 22,000 acres and the Lookout Fire about 10-15 miles north is about 2100 acres. 

In 2021, a year many Puget Sound posters remarked on as being "smoke free" the Bull Complex Fire just to our east burned about 25,000 acres, while the Rough Patch and Middle Fork Complex Fires burned a combined 80,000 acres just east of Eugene. They all started in late July/early August of that year. 

So no, just imagine how apocalyptic all that would have seemed...

I am not talking about the size of the fires... the smoke was still horrific.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Actually my prediction was spot on. At least so far. You’re just too stupid to read it.

It’s all in the summer forecast thread.

To be fair you did go with a +0.7F anomaly for PDX in August.  That’s going to be a miss.  I certainly didn’t do any better.  Figured this was going to be more of a front loaded summer than just another wall to wall scorcher. 

[the_convergence_zone]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

You might end up regretting that if these heat indices don’t settle down. It’s something special.

Then again at least there’s A/C. The smokestorm in June was one of the most unpleasant weather events in recent memory simply because you couldn’t really escape it, that s**t gets into the house and carpets trap the smell. Took a week for that sweet-ish campfire odor to vacate the premises.

This is a big source of insurance claims close to fires. Even if your house doesn't burn you still have to gut the inside if the smoke is too thick. 

You're lucky out east that the real nasty stuff (AQI > 200) is pretty rare. We learned out to deal with it here about 5-6 years ago. I have a stack of about 15 spare HEPA filters for my central air and the fan runs 24/7. Plus I supplement that with a half-dozen portable plug-in filters. There could be a fire next door and I won't notice it inside. An unexpected advantage is that I no longer need to dust my furniture because there are zero particulates anywhere. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh so we resort to juvenile name calling, come on Phil, at least just admit you bombed another forecast. It should be old hat by now! 

Unless I missed you calling for non-stop torching and all time record heat in August?!

Ironically, it has played out almost exactly how I envisioned it would, even back in May/June. Which is rarely the case.  

[Phishy Wx]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not a good sign...

I've noticed if Spokane has frost, freeze or Snow in September, the winter in most cases ends up sucking.  at least that's the perception.  I need to dig into the stats though

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am not talking about the size of the fires... the smoke was still horrific.

I'm sorry you had to live through that. Truly appalling. 

[BLI snowman]

Looking like a decent chance that NE OR, SE WA, and ID cash in on some of that 'cane moisture early next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

This is a big source of insurance claims close to fires. Even if your house doesn't burn you still have to gut the inside if the smoke is too thick. 

You're lucky out east that the real nasty stuff (AQI > 200) is pretty rare. We learned out to deal with it here about 5-6 years ago. I have a stack of about 15 spare HEPA filters for my central air and the fan runs 24/7. Plus I supplement that with a half-dozen portable plug-in filters. There could be a fire next door and I won't notice it inside. An unexpected advantage is that I no longer need to dust my furniture because there are zero particulates anywhere. 

Yeah that happened to a friend who lived up the McKenzie Valley during the 2020 Holiday Farm Fire, his house was spared, but it might as well have burned to the ground with the smoke damage. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

To be fair you did go with a +0.7F anomaly for PDX in August.  That’s going to be a miss.  I certainly didn’t do any better.  Figured this was going to be more of a front loaded summer than just another wall to wall scorcher. 

Once out 3+ months precision will be lower, of course.

But if you recall I’d mentioned a heatwave signal either late July or August and that at least 2 heat spikes were likely. I had to project from anti-analogs given the unusual evolution of this ENSO being almost diametrically opposed to the post-1998 canonical evolution.

I don’t like to project large anomalies far out in time because many high frequency elements are impossible to see at that range and can easily change the picture. 

[BLI snowman]

37 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Other than last year, was there ever a year where fall didn't start in the first few weeks of September? 

He is predicting a rapid transition so I'm expecting a good storm cycle by September 15, otherwise it's a bust. 

1952, 1987, and 1991 were years where summer stretched well into October.

[Dave]

Not ideal.

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm sorry you had to live through that. Truly appalling. 

We know all too well up here what it's like to have sun blocked by smoke and have trouble breathing outside.    We experienced it in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022.  And might get there this year the way things are going.