August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

Welcome to the last month of meteorological summer. Looking forward to shortening days, lowering sun angles and slowly cooling climo. 
 

 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Welcome to the last month of meteorological summer. Looking forward to shortening days, lowering sun angles and slowly cooling climo. 
 

 

My bet is definitely warmer than last month relative to average…and maybe some rain later this month towards the end. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sadly the 00z EPS is pulling back on rainfall potential for the second week of the month. Getting any sort of rain at this juncture could mean a lot for mitigating fire season as we move later in the summer. Sadly there also appears to be a strong signal for ridging rebounding in the long range. One of the stronger ridgy signals in a while.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

My bet is definitely warmer than last month relative to average…and maybe some rain later this month towards the end. 

It will probably be one of our warmest months on record down here, like July.  That’s just summer these days. Some rain at some point would be incredibly beneficial.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It will probably be one of our warmest months on record down here, like July.  That’s just summer these days. Some rain at some point would be incredibly beneficial.

I thought some of the western Oregon stations were running close to western Washington. July was only +1.6F here. Then again we’re talking about +1.6 over the already inflated 1991-2020 figures. A “cool” summer month now is still top 20-25 at the very least. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I thought some of the western Oregon stations were running close to western Washington. July was only +1.6F here. Then again we’re talking about +1.6 over the already inflated 1991-2020 figures. A “cool” summer month now is still top 20-25 at the very least. 

I haven’t looked around too much but I know PDX was over three degrees above average and about 0.7F shy of their warmest July on record. I think places down south in the Willamette valley were even warmer, especially with regard to average highs. But admittedly I haven’t found it interesting enough to do a lot of digging.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I haven’t looked around too much but I know PDX was over three degrees above average and about 0.7F shy of their warmest July on record. I think places down south in the Willamette valley were even warmer, especially with regard to average highs. But admittedly I haven’t found it interesting enough to do a lot of digging.

Yeah it is what it is…not too interesting when it’s like this every year now.. Hard to imagine we will go through a significant cooling in average summer temps any time soon. I think it’s just the new norm to have hotter drier summers now and I’ve given up on a 2011 redux at this point. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Looking forward to my annual Oregon trip next week. Will be down around bend the 9th-15th. So far the fire season hasn’t been too crazy thankfully.

 I went down in September 2022 and 2021. No wildlife smoke in 2021 but there was a bit last year…not a crazy amount though. Hoping that going earlier this year I can avoid it. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I feel like this August will be fine, regardless of the long term forecasts. But the coming winter is due to be a dud. Doesn’t mean it will be but we are due.

[AmunRAEL]

I think second half of month will be a little more troughier 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly I don't think rain in the summer is realistic here. Aside from some light showers or drizzle. I was think we've probably had less than 1" combined in the 12 Augusts I've been here. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Honestly I don't think rain in the summer is realistic here. Aside from some light showers or drizzle. I was think we've probably had less than 1" combined in the 12 Augusts I've been here. 

Nothing in 2019? July and august that year were both above normal rainfall IMBY. We had 0.99” in July and 1.57” in august. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Today is a more pleasant weather day than the Pac12 media deal being presented currently.

https://www.captiongenerator.com/v/2291308/pac-12-media-negotiations

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nothing in 2019? July and august that year were both above normal rainfall IMBY. We had 0.99” in July and 1.57” in august. 

0.42 and 0.32" at SLE, and that's one of the wettest July/August combos in the past decade. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

0.42 and 0.32" at SLE, and that's one of the wettest July/August combos in the past decade. 

Yeah generally we get 0.00”-0.25” a month in July or august nowadays. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

August 2019 was pretty decent overall, despite popping off 100 at the end of the month. 

As you can see, an extremely wet August at SLE would be around 2" 

Maximum 1-Month Total Precipitation 
for SALEM AP (MCNARY FIELD), OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 4.17, 1968-08-31, 0
2, 2.91, 1899-08-31, 0
3, 2.56, 1978-08-31, 0
4, 2.42, 1926-08-31, 0
5, 2.14, 1943-08-31, 0
6, 2.09, 1983-08-31, 0
7, 1.96, 1975-08-31, 0
8, 1.89, 1976-08-31, 0
9, 1.81, 1912-08-31, 0
10, 1.70, 1977-08-31, 0

Period of record: 1892-12-01 to 2023-07-31

They have not had an August with over 1" of rain since 2008. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

August 2019 was pretty decent overall, despite popping off 100 at the end of the month. 

As you can see, an extremely wet August at SLE would be around 2" 

Maximum 1-Month Total Precipitation 
for SALEM AP (MCNARY FIELD), OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 4.17, 1968-08-31, 0
2, 2.91, 1899-08-31, 0
3, 2.56, 1978-08-31, 0
4, 2.42, 1926-08-31, 0
5, 2.14, 1943-08-31, 0
6, 2.09, 1983-08-31, 0
7, 1.96, 1975-08-31, 0
8, 1.89, 1976-08-31, 0
9, 1.81, 1912-08-31, 0
10, 1.70, 1977-08-31, 0

Period of record: 1892-12-01 to 2023-07-31

They have not had an August with over 1" of rain since 2008. 

I think it’s a little different up north just based off of climo. 2008, 2015 and 2019 all were +1” months here. I believe 2008 and 2015 were over 2” IIRC. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah generally we get 0.00”-0.25” a month in July or august nowadays. 

We ended July this year with 0.10" which is pretty close to our decadal average. September is a month that has not been a complete loss in recent years, so I have some hope we can have some decent rainfall next month. In fact September 2019 and 2021 had about 3" of rain at SLE, which puts them in the top 15, and of course September 2013 blew away every other year with 7.05" blowing away the previous record of 4.84" from 1914. We had about 13" up here that month, almost doubling the previous monthly record. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We ended July this year with 0.10" which is pretty close to our decadal average. September is a month that has not been a complete loss in recent years, so I have some hope we can have some decent rainfall next month. In fact September 2019 and 2021 had about 3" of rain at SLE, which puts them in the top 15, and of course September 2013 blew away every other year with 7.05" blowing away the previous record of 4.84" from 1914. We had about 13" up here that month, almost doubling the previous monthly record. 

Yeah, September can be boom or bust up here but usually we get atleast an inch of rain…more dependable than august. September 2012 we had 0.03” but then in 2013 we had over 6” of rain. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

I think it’s a little different up north just based off of climo. 2008, 2015 and 2019 all were +1” months here. I believe 2008 and 2015 were over 2” IIRC. 

It is, our dry season is definitely more pronounced down here. I've gone rounds with Front Ranger on this topic, but I truly believe it. 

Generally the falls rains do not begin in earnest until late September/into October down here. It's realistic to expect some meaningful rain by mid-September, but it's not uncommon for September to be virtually dry. 

We got pretty lucky in the 2019-2021 years with meaningful rain in September, but obviously that didn't carry over into last year. 

September 2019 was about as good as we could have expected, meaningful rain early in the month and the average max temp for the month was about 6F below average at SLE. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only one September where it didn't rain at all at SLE. But not uncommon for it to stay pretty dry. 

Minimum 1-Month Total Precipitation 
for SALEM AP (MCNARY FIELD), OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 0.00, 1975-09-30, 0
2, 0.01, 1993-09-30, 0
-, 0.01, 1942-09-30, 0
-, 0.01, 1932-09-30, 0
5, 0.04, 2012-09-30, 0
-, 0.04, 1991-09-30, 0
7, 0.06, 1943-09-30, 0
8, 0.09, 1999-09-30, 0
9, 0.13, 1965-09-30, 0
10, 0.14, 1987-09-30, 0
11, 0.17, 1918-09-30, 0
12, 0.20, 1952-09-30, 0
13, 0.23, 1903-09-30, 0
14, 0.27, 1929-09-30, 0
15, 0.28, 1974-09-30, 0
16, 0.29, 2022-09-30, 0
17, 0.30, 1908-09-30, 0
18, 0.32, 1983-09-30, 0
19, 0.35, 2018-09-30, 0
-, 0.35, 2011-09-30, 0
21, 0.38, 1939-09-30, 0
22, 0.41, 2008-09-30, 0
23, 0.42, 1990-09-30, 0
-, 0.42, 1915-09-30, 0
-, 0.42, 1904-09-30, 0

Last value also occurred in one or more previous years.
Period of record: 1892-12-01 to 2023-07-31

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is, our dry season is definitely more pronounced down here. I've gone rounds with Front Ranger on this topic, but I truly believe it. 

Generally the falls rains do not begin in earnest until late September/into October down here. It's realistic to expect some meaningful rain by mid-September, but it's not uncommon for September to be virtually dry. 

We got pretty lucky in the 2019-2021 years with meaningful rain in September, but obviously that didn't carry over into last year. 

September 2019 was about as good as we could have expected, meaningful rain early in the month and the average max temp for the month was about 6F below average at SLE. 

Yeah it’s interesting how the farther north you go the more rainfall you get per climo in the summer. Even in Washington the difference between living in the southern Puget sound versus up near Bellingham or Vancouver island is a significant difference. 
 Really hoping fall kicks in earlier this year. Would be hard to beat the fall of 2022 for dryness. Didn’t get our first real rain until late October last year. I think that the first significant rains will hit much earlier this year like early to mid September. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS shows some rain in eastern WA on Sunday night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s interesting how the farther north you go the more rainfall you get per climo in the summer. Even in Washington the difference between living in the southern Puget sound versus up near Bellingham or Vancouver island is a significant difference. 
 Really hoping fall kicks in earlier this year. Would be hard to beat the fall of 2022 for dryness. Didn’t get our first real rain until late October last year. I think that the first significant rains will hit much earlier this year like early to mid September. 

I tend to agree. It would be fairly unusual to have two falls back to back like last year. As much as I enjoyed fall 2019, I'm not sure I want a repeat of that either in a strong Nino, unless we operate under the "take whatever we can get," philosophy this year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On the other hand a couple of potential analogs make an appearance on this list...

Minimum 2-Month Total Precipitation 
for SALEM AP (MCNARY FIELD), OR

Rank, Value, EndingDate, MissingDays
1, 0.61, 1987-10-31, 0
2, 1.03, 1952-10-31, 0
3, 1.10, 1988-10-31, 0
4, 1.12, 1993-10-31, 0
5, 1.19, 2006-10-31, 0
6, 1.32, 1917-10-31, 0
7, 1.37, 2008-10-31, 0
8, 1.44, 1929-10-31, 0
9, 1.45, 2002-10-31, 0
10, 1.49, 1902-10-31, 0

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I tend to agree. It would be fairly unusual to have two falls back to back like last year. As much as I enjoyed fall 2019, I'm not sure I want a repeat of that either in a strong Nino, unless we operate under the "take whatever we can get," philosophy this year. 

I wouldn’t be surprised if this upcoming winter ended up similar to 2019-2020. I was hoping going into an El Niño we might see something similar to the summer/fall combo of 2019. So far the summer part of the equation hasn’t been similar to that year. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I feel like this August will be fine, regardless of the long term forecasts. But the coming winter is due to be a dud. Doesn’t mean it will be but we are due.

I have the same feeling about the coming winter as well.

Feel very safe saying it is not going to be as great as the most recent one was for me.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It is, our dry season is definitely more pronounced down here. I've gone rounds with Front Ranger on this topic, but I truly believe it.

Up here in Vancouver, BC, in fact, we have historically been the cusp of having a solidly marine west coast and not a Mediterranean climate, because our summers have been just damp enough. In recent years, however, that has not been the case so much. Even with that, we did really well with the last storm system, which for the most part slighted Oregon (and this is not an unusual pattern for summertime storms).

[BLI snowman]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows some rain in eastern WA on Sunday night.

Probably going to be a fair amount of lightning too. Hopefully the strike to rain drop ratio isn't too ugly.

[BLI snowman]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Up here in Vancouver, BC, in fact, we have historically been the cusp of having a solidly marine west coast and not a Mediterranean climate, because our summers have been just damp enough. In recent years, however, that has not been the case so much. Even with that, we did really well with the last storm system, which for the most part slighted Oregon (and this is not an unusual pattern for summertime storms).

Summers moving forward are roughly:

Vancouver= 20th Century Seattle

Seattle= 20th Century Portland

Portland= 20th Century Roseburg

[ShawniganLake]

52 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s interesting how the farther north you go the more rainfall you get per climo in the summer. Even in Washington the difference between living in the southern Puget sound versus up near Bellingham or Vancouver island is a significant difference. 
 Really hoping fall kicks in earlier this year. Would be hard to beat the fall of 2022 for dryness. Didn’t get our first real rain until late October last year. I think that the first significant rains will hit much earlier this year like early to mid September. 

What does Tacoma average for rainfall in July and August?

Southern Vancouver Island averages generally an inch or less per month at most stations.  Victoria is .70” for July and .94” in August.  Probably the driest region in Canada during the summer.  

[iFred]

40 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I have the same feeling about the coming winter as well.

Feel very safe saying it is not going to be as great as the most recent one was for me.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows some rain in eastern WA on Sunday night.

Hmm.  Terrain based convection I assume.  We are possibly heading up to our place at Watch lake this weekend.   The kids would probably be happy to see some lightning. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What does Tacoma average for rainfall in July and August?

Southern Vancouver Island averages generally an inch or less per month at most stations.  Victoria is .70” for July and .94” in August.  Probably the driest region in Canada during the summer.  

I’d have to look when I get home because I can’t recall the averages off the top of my head…but I believe july is close to 1/2” of rain and august is closer to 1”. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d have to look when I get home because I can’t recall the averages off the top of my head…but I believe july is close to 1/2” of rain and august is closer to 1”. 

So probably a little drier than southern Vancouver Island.  The mainland around Vancouver and out the Fraser Valley is quite a bit wetter then here during the summer too. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

24 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Summers moving forward are roughly:

Vancouver= 20th Century Seattle

Seattle= 20th Century Portland

Portland= 20th Century Roseburg

Eugene = 20th century Medford

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eugene = 20th century Medford

OOF

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Eugene = 20th century Medford

Average high of 95.0 at Medford for July. Exactly one day had a high below 90. Basically Redding-lite now.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah it’s interesting how the farther north you go the more rainfall you get per climo in the summer. Even in Washington the difference between living in the southern Puget sound versus up near Bellingham or Vancouver island is a significant difference. 
 Really hoping fall kicks in earlier this year. Would be hard to beat the fall of 2022 for dryness. Didn’t get our first real rain until late October last year. I think that the first significant rains will hit much earlier this year like early to mid September. 

Yeah fall systems can have pretty sharp latitudinal cutoffs even into November. Not at all uncommon in the fall to have it dumping rain and then 100 miles to the south it’s sunny.

[the_convergence_zone]

28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hmm.  Terrain based convection I assume.  We are possibly heading up to our place at Watch lake this weekend.   The kids would probably be happy to see some lightning. 

The fire weather folks are already raising the alarm about this weekend. Saturday and Sunday in particular look like busy thunderstorm days in the Cascades. So far they've been able to stamp out the fire starts but I have a feeling their luck is going to run out this time with lightning followed by stronger winds later next week.