August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There are many cities that are in fire prone areas and its pretty rare for an entire city to be destroyed.   Almost unprecedented in modern times.    Small towns maybe... but not larger cities.    Its not healthy to dwell on something that is exceedingly unlikely to ever happen.    

This area is very unprepared for something so dire. It's a tinderbox with so many cracked and dry areas, these old Washburne houses that are 120+ years old here right next to downtown, the mills just to the south with tons of lumber, houses on pretty shear relief hills. There aren't enough fire units to stop it once Jasper or Pisgah have a fire start. Or in an east wind event if one starts a bit east of Thurston between there and Vida and it hops the McKenzie. Spot fires would rain into the city.

If the 2020 event had been a little closer, we would've lost everything. Warm ash was falling for days and people had to wear gas masks in their homes.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

After staying below 80 for the last week we should rack up a few 80s coming up here. 80/52 yesterday to start august. Got down to 54 this morning and already 69 at 9am. 

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully the 12Z GFS is not teasing us.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully the 12Z GFS is not teasing us.

Last nights euro run seemed to back off on rain later next week unfortunately. This is something earlier than that timeframe it looks like. 

[Phishy Wx]

LOL

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

13 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

You posted this in the July thread so I quoted it over here.  I wouldn't call it dreadful.   I don't really mind much in the winter since the days are so short.   It's not like they have full sun across the rest of the northern US.   It's all "diet sun".   And we get some sun.   Long inversions are the most depressing thing to me... unless my area is above the fog.  I have grown to appreciate the soft green and mild temps of winter as opposed to the harsh brown and bitter cold that most of the country experiences.   And we travel to break it up.  But I quickly get annoyed when April and May are gloomy and cold of course.  All about correlation to daylight for me.   

I’m a southern. It will never not be gloomy and dreadful to me. Last year extended gloom nearly killed me. I deal with it to enjoy the best summers on the planet. I love snow, so the snow events help get me through it as well.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m a southern. It will never not be gloomy and dreadful to me. Last year extended gloom nearly killed me. I deal with it to enjoy the best summers on the planet. I love snow, so the snow events help get me through it as well.

You mean last winter?   I thought last winter was quite reasonable.   There was consistently spaced dry periods and sunshine.    Late March through mid June last year was terrible though.   

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You’d think the suicide rate in Europe would be higher… 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You’d think the suicide rate in Europe would be higher… 

That is what I was saying yesterday... Seattle is about the same as northern Spain and the south of France.  

[Phil]

11 hours ago, Deweydog said:

That suppressed 4CH really suppressing  its suppression on the long range GFS.

GFS loves EPAC TC induced diabatic heating.

Only a week ago it was projecting a heatwave throughout the west/southwest to open august (as was other guidance). Got winnowed down upon approach, as almost every heatwave has thus far.  

[Omegaraptor]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean last winter?   I thought last winter was quite reasonable.   There was consistently spaced dry periods and sunshine.    Late March through mid June last year was terrible though.   

I would not mind in the slightest if the pattern we had this late Feb and March was our default winter pattern. Felt somewhat continental-ish. Not gloomy, the very sharp airmasses and cold 850s were doing all the work.

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You’d think the suicide rate in Europe would be higher… 

That map is very low resolution. Huge difference between here and the Appalachians, map doesn’t pick it up at all.

[AmunRAEL]

Blues should be coming into Seattle within the 12-1pm hours they are already out by far Eastern Idaho. Gonna be pretty warm this weekend for the Airshow 

[Phil]

Much more accurate.

[Phishy Wx]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You’d think the suicide rate in Europe would be higher… 

no guns, or less access to them (which is tool of choice over here for that)

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

@Phil so troughing is the main theme and any ridging is short-lived?    Hate to see to what a warm pattern looks like. 

It’ll be winnowed down (again). Error is in the duration, not necessarily the amplitude.

In the presence of beaufort sea ridging/-AO, pacific jet/ULL activity will tend to punch through any ridge that tries to set up. But models often don’t catch onto that beyond week-1. Very consistent theme.

It can easily get hot in such a pattern. But it seldom sustains beyond a few days. Could be guidance is wrong re: structure of high latitude blocking. If not, it’s probably wrong about the prolonged heatwave idea.

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Much more accurate.

Shenendoah of VA coming thru!!!

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

no guns, or less access to them (which is tool of choice over here for that)

There are plenty of ways to off yourself that don’t involve guns. Separating the suicide rate by gender will tell you whether it’s guns or other factors since the method of capping yourself is largely a male thing.

[Phishy Wx]

Front loaded winter

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

There are plenty of ways to off yourself that don’t involve guns. Separating the suicide rate by gender will tell you whether it’s guns or other factors since the method of capping yourself is largely a male thing.

wonder what males use over there? pills?

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Shenendoah of VA coming thru!!!

If anything I think even that map underestimates the downslope effect.

Whenever winds are W/NW (like 75% of the time in winter) the upslope side of the terrain is socked in the clouds, while it’s sunny here. It’s so common. That’s why the appalachian high terrain averages up to 150” of snow annually, while here it’s less than 20”.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

wonder what males use over there? pills?

Probably. Or jumping? I don’t have in depth knowledge of suicide methods, nor do I want to..always tragic.

All I know is (relatively) uncommon for females to cap themselves, even in the US. Guys do it all the time.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Probably. Or jumping? I don’t have in depth knowledge of suicide methods, nor do I want to..always tragic.

All I know is (relatively) uncommon for females to cap themselves, even in the US. Guys do it all the time.

well Scandinavian countries are also known to have some of the happiest citizens in the world, so I'd assume the rates are lower. 

what a morbid discussion   

[Phil]

That building Aleutian low fits the evolution of low pass analog composite almost perfectly. Pretty remarkable.

In September the majority of cases see it redevelop closer to the west coast. I think autumn may start fast and hard this year in the PNW, quick flip to wet/stormy marking the seasonal transition. Like the snap of a finger.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

You mean last winter?   I thought last winter was quite reasonable.   There was consistently spaced dry periods and sunshine.    Late March through mid June last year was terrible though.   

The March to June stretch is what I was referring to.

[TT-SEA]

34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Much more accurate.

This does not tell the entire story either.   High clouds might be reported as technically being cloudy but its not really cloudy.   There is no way its dark cloudy here for 75% of the year.    My experience over the last 20 years is that its closer to 50%.    Solar radiation would be a better gauge.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The March to June stretch is what I was referring to.

Totally agree then.    But then it was sunny for 5 months straight after that period.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

That building Aleutian low fits the evolution of low pass analog composite almost perfectly. Pretty remarkable.

In September the majority of cases see it redevelop closer to the west coast. I think autumn may start fast and hard this year in the PNW, quick flip to wet/stormy marking the seasonal transition. Like the snap of a finger.

I don't think this year is going to follow any pre-defined script.  

[Phishy Wx]

early fall means death bow to winter most likely

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

That building Aleutian low fits the evolution of low pass analog composite almost perfectly. Pretty remarkable.

In September the majority of cases see it redevelop closer to the west coast. I think autumn may start fast and hard this year in the PNW, quick flip to wet/stormy marking the seasonal transition. Like the snap of a finger.

Over the past 10 years I would guess that the average start of rainy season around here is September 15 -- with rainy season defined as a couple of consecutive storms. It almost always starts by my birthday which is the 19th. 2022 was a highly anomalous exception.

It would be nice to have a repeat of 2019 when there was a clear and well defined start to the rainy season on September 7. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This does not tell the entire story either.   High clouds might be reported as technically being cloudy but it’s not really cloudy.   There is no way it’s dark cloudy here for 75% of the year.    My experience over the last 20 years is that it’s closer to 50%.    Solar radiation would be a better gauge.

That is mean sky cover, not necessarily sunshine hours.

But it’s pretty objective data, satellite radiometers measure the proportion of SW radiation reflected, cross checked w/ surface radiation sensors.

Our personal experiences/recollections are often wrong. Even when we’re certain we’re right.

[Phil]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

Over the past 10 years I would guess that the average start of rainy season around here is September 15 -- with rainy season defined as a couple of consecutive storms. It almost always starts by my birthday which is the 19th. 2022 was a highly anomalous exception.

It would be nice to have a repeat of 2019 when there was a clear and well defined start to the rainy season on September 7. 

Idk when exactly it will start, but I’ll wager September will be rockin’ in the PNW this year. Big league jet.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

That is mean sky cover, not necessarily sunshine hours.

But it’s pretty objective data, satellite radiometers measure the proportion of SW radiation reflected, cross checked w/ surface radiation sensors.

Our personal experiences/recollections are often wrong. Even when we’re certain we’re right.

There are many types of clouds... mean sky cover does not tell the story.      Its been sunny here for most of the last 3 months.   If that map was accurate then we would not see a ray of sun from now through next April.     But we have sunny days mixed in all year long.  

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Idk when exactly it will start, but I’ll wager September will be rockin’ in the PNW this year. Big league jet.

Probably some big league windstorms if that Jet parks over us for any extended time

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

That building Aleutian low fits the evolution of low pass analog composite almost perfectly. Pretty remarkable.

In September the majority of cases see it redevelop closer to the west coast. I think autumn may start fast and hard this year in the PNW, quick flip to wet/stormy marking the seasonal transition. Like the snap of a finger.

Wouldn’t that be something. 

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There are many types of clouds... mean sky cover does not tell the story.      It’s been sunny here for most of the last 3 months.   If that map was accurate then we would not see a ray of sun from now through next April.     But we have sunny days mixed in all year long.  

Well I was just up there and it was not sunny the entire time.

Sunny half the time would mean you get as much sunshine as parts of Florida. Which I know is not true because much of my family is from Florida and moved to Seattle. It’s not even close.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Probably some big league windstorms if that Jet parks over us for any extended time

If there was ever a season for a PNW windstorm, it would be 2023/24. Especially in the fall and early part of winter.

Doesn’t mean it’ll happen, but if I lived there I’d be pruning my trees now (looking at you, @MossMan).

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well I was just up there and it was not sunny the entire time.

Sunny half the time would mean you get as much sunshine as parts of Florida. Which I know is not true because much of my family is from Florida and moved to Seattle. It’s not even close.

It was sunny in my area the entire time you were here!  

Its probably as sunny or more sunny up here than in Florida in the summer... and the complete opposite in the winter.

 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was sunny in my area the entire time you were here!  

Its probably as sunny or more sunny up here than in Florida in the summer... and the complete opposite in the winter.

 

You really believe North Bend is as sunny as Florida, annually?

Poor guy. You’ve lived in a cloudy climate for so long you’ve lost perspective. Florida summers are actually quite sunny, cloudy days seldom happen at all.