August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Bolt Creek Fire was pretty small, about 15,000 acres. At the same time east of Eugene the Cedar Creek Fire burned 127,000 acres. The Fall Creek Fire producing the smoke around Eugene right now is over 22,000 acres and the Lookout Fire about 10-15 miles north is about 2100 acres. 

In 2021, a year many Puget Sound posters remarked on as being "smoke free" the Bull Complex Fire just to our east burned about 25,000 acres, while the Rough Patch and Middle Fork Complex Fires burned a combined 80,000 acres just east of Eugene. They all started in late July/early August of that year. 

So no, just imagine how apocalyptic all that would have seemed...

Proximity to fires doesn’t always tell the whole story of where the smoke is going.  In 2017 the elephant hill fire burned 475,000 acres and came within about 2miles of our cabin at Watch lake.  But for much of the time the smoke was much worse here on the coast than it was up there in the interior. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Has Cliff Mass posted something “proving” that climate change had nothing to do with yesterday’s 110-degree heat in western Oregon (and it was all just a random fluke) yet?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Has Cliff Mass posted something proving that climate change had nothing to do with yesterday’s 110-degree heat in western Oregon (and it was all just a random fluke) yet?

Probably soon. 

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Has Cliff Mass posted something proving that climate change had nothing to do with yesterday’s 110-degree heat in western Oregon (and it was all just a random fluke) yet?

"It still would have been 107 without climate change..."

LOL. 

[ShawniganLake]

Lytton should be close to setting a new provincial record high for August this afternoon.  Should be close to 107 or 108.  Not going to challenge the 121 from June 2021

[T-Town]

Lively morning on the forum. 
 

75 degrees here. About 2 degrees ahead of yesterday. 

[ShawniganLake]

Temps are ahead of yesterdays on SE Vancouver island this morning. Nanaimo YCD was 86F at 10am, which is currently the hotspot in all of Canada. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Lively morning on the forum. 
 

75 degrees here. About 2 degrees ahead of yesterday. 

Big events bring out the best in all of us.

 

[Tyler Mode]

Right inline with yesterday's temperatures.  Definitely smokier here this morning, but nothing like 2020 etc.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Lively morning on the forum. 
 

75 degrees here. About 2 degrees ahead of yesterday. 

Andrew is lashing out today... taking out his frustration with nature on everyone.  

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Has Cliff Mass posted something “proving” that climate change had nothing to do with yesterday’s 110-degree heat in western Oregon (and it was all just a random fluke) yet?

that guy is such a freakin rube

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Andrew is lashing out today... taking out his frustration with nature on everyone.  

I actually love this weather, worked outside for 12 hours on Sunday and floated the Clackamas River in direct sunlight for six hours yesterday during the heat of the day. It's amazing, best time of the year for sure. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Right inline with yesterday's temperatures.  Definitely smokier here this morning, but nothing like 2020 etc.

Agreed, it might be worse down around Eugene, but it's just typical summer smoke up this way. 

Oh wow... @Gradient Keeper just posted this in his outstanding FB group. 

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Agreed, it might be worse down around Eugene, but it's just typical summer smoke up this way. 

Oh wow... @Gradient Keeper just posted this in his outstanding FB group. 

300 to almost 600. Jeezus. Thats bad

[GobBluth]

The slightest of relief happening on the west side of Portland. Hillsboro -4 from yesterday, McMinnville -5. 

[Phishy Wx]

shades of 2021. gross shiit

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would imagine this could cause some problems if it verified...

[lowlandsnow]

The NBM forecasts that Cliff posted were pretty much spot on for this heatwave. 92 for Seattle on Monday actual 93, Tri-Cities 105 actual 105, Portland 106 actual 108. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cant esee pisga aymore. Layingg dwn angonna se if i heps 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would imagine this could cause some problems if it verified...

Last I checked, there were still many roads in the Mojave Desert that were closed due to having been washed out by the last round of severe monsoonal flooding they got.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Cant esee pisga aymore. Layingg dwn angonna se if i heps 

Do you have a HEPA filter or at least a box fan and some MERV 13 filters?

If not, too late to buy them for this year but something to put on the list before next year’s smoke season.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s worldwide. You can’t.

See, this is just wrong. Worldwide, most places are NOT seeing the sort of summer warming the PNW has seen the past 10 years, and most places are not seeing the smokefests either.

This is the problem with conflating local climate changes with AGW.

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[the_convergence_zone]

7 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The NBM forecasts that Cliff posted were pretty much spot on for this heatwave. 92 for Seattle on Monday actual 93, Tri-Cities 105 actual 105, Portland 106 actual 108. 

The NBM is awesome. If the Euro is the best model the NBM will give it the highest weight. And if the Euro is biased the NBM will correct for that. The downside to the NBM is that it uses the most recent couple of weeks for those corrections, which is fine for summer but if there is a big change in the synoptic pattern the corrections might be wrong. The private sector models are smarter because they have machine learning models that take into account the synoptic regime. 

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

See, this is just wrong. Worldwide, most places are NOT seeing the sort of summer warming the PNW has seen the past 10 years, and most places are not seeing the smokefests either.

This is the problem with conflating local climate changes with AGW.

It's still AGW, it's just that the AGW effects are nonlinear. The PNW summer warming is nothing compared to the summer warming at high latitudes. Overall the PNW is warming less than the global mean (over land). 

[lowlandsnow]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

See, this is just wrong. Worldwide, most places are NOT seeing the sort of summer warming the PNW has seen the past 10 years, and most places are not seeing the smokefests either.

This is the problem with conflating local climate changes with AGW.

Just look at the Arctic virtually no change in summer sea ice in my lifetime with the exception of 2006. The lowest year on record for sea ice was 2012 with an extent of 3.18 million km2. Last year just over 4.5 million km2 squared. Greenland worst year on record 2012. Once again not to say the Earth isn't warming but the summer warming the PNW seeing is not the same as everywhere.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

See, this is just wrong. Worldwide, most places are NOT seeing the sort of summer warming the PNW has seen the past 10 years, and most places are not seeing the smokefests either.

Yet.

[Phishy Wx]

already 89 on the 11am hour, about 10 degrees warmer than this point yesterday.  oh boy

[GobBluth]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

See, this is just wrong. Worldwide, most places are NOT seeing the sort of summer warming the PNW has seen the past 10 years, and most places are not seeing the smokefests either.

This is the problem with conflating local climate changes with AGW.

Some of the densest forest land(and poorly managed) on earth combined with having 3-4 months of almost no moisture every year will load the dice for more smoke-fests.

[Cloud]

This is what a wildfire outbreak looks like. May just be our new summer norms. 

https://x.com/us_stormwatch/status/1690935370492563456?s=46&t=U5iEeyDaKNnDvYsCQTWKGw

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows sunny conditions from the start on Saturday but only in the mid 70s in Seattle and around 80 in Portland.   Should be a spectacular day.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows sunny conditions from the start on Saturday but only in the mid 70s in Seattle and around 80 in Portland.   Should be a spectacular day.

I will actually be in Seattle. Should be very refreshing.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And before the noon hour, too… impressive!

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Looking like a decent chance that NE OR, SE WA, and ID cash in on some of that 'cane moisture early next week.

Yes please!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I will actually be in Seattle. Should be very refreshing.

Same thing on Sunday... sunny all day and still pleasant. 

[lowlandsnow]

7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

3 degrees ahead of yesterday

[TT-SEA]

Here comes the tropical moisture on the 12Z ECMWF next Monday.

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's still AGW, it's just that the AGW effects are nonlinear. The PNW summer warming is nothing compared to the summer warming at high latitudes. Overall the PNW is warming less than the global mean (over land). 

No other region in the US is seeing the sort of summer extremes that the PNW is seeing. So saying "it's the same everywhere" is simply not accurate. 

On short timescales, local climate fluctuations will always trump global climate warming.