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September 2023 Observations and Discussion


hawkstwelve

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Welcome to meteorological fall. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 73/47 there was 100% of possible sunshine. There were 5 HDD’s and 0 CDD’s for today the average H/L is 79/58 the record high of 97 was set in 1953 and the record low of 40 was set in 1896. The record rain fall amount of 1.05” fell in 1905. Last year the H/L was 84/59.

In looking back at meteorological summer the mean at Grand Rapids for June was 68.8 at Lansing in June it was also 68.8. In July at GR the mean was 71.9 and at Lansing it was 72.8. In August the mean at GR was 69.3 and at Lansing it was 69.2. For meteorological summer the mean at Grand Rapids was 70.0 and at Lansing it was 70.3. At both Grand Rapids and Lansing there were 9 days of 90 or better the average for meteorological summer at both locations is 10. The highest reading at Grand Rapids was 91 and that happened a total of 6 times at Lansing the highest reading was 92 and that happened at total of 3 times. The low during meteorological summer was 47 at Grand Rapids on June 7th and again on August 31st  At Lansing the lowest reading was 44 on June 7th There was a total of 10.39” of rain fall at GR and 11.41” at Lansing. All in all it was a cooler than average summer at Grand Rapids (-0.9) and a near average summer at Lansing (0.3)

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23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Going to be a toasty Labor Day weekend but the GFS is being consistent with rain chances toward the middle of next week for western Missouri. I believe this heatwave will be much shorter and less severe than the previous one for may.

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Yup, a lot more tolerable and it appears the blocking will subdue the length of this Heat Wave.  By next weekend, I'm already seeing some comfy temps and by mid month things could really cool down around these parts.  Your area is looking good for some rain chances and up trough my place into the GL's mid next week.  ORD hasn't had a drop of rain for 15 days.  Things are getting brown around here but I'm not worried as the pattern should turn more active as troughs begin to roll through.

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Things are about to get a little wild along the east coast and as this potential hurricane (shown below) moves up the east coast attention will quickly turn to the gulf as another potential hurricane forms and moves toward Texas and Louisiana.

Our signature storm of the season has started to show up on the models, and the National Hurricane Center this morning put this orange, 50% chance of development, area in prime position to track into our prediction zone from 10-months ago. Look at how active the Atlantic is at the moment! More details in the next few days. Have a great Labor Day weekend!

 May be an image of map and text that says 'All Disturbances Seven-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida hurricanes. gov FRANKLIN 45N IDALIA JOSE GERT 35N 10-Month LRC Prediction Needs Το Be Monitored Closely 8:00 am EDT Fri Sep 2023 100W 90W 50W 40W 30W Current Disturbances and Seven-Day Cyclone Formation Chance: x< 40% 40-60% Tropical or Sub- -Tropical Cyclone: o Depression Storm Hurricane Post- Post-Tropical Cyclone or Remnants 5N 20W 60%'

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Its a weee bit soupy this morning in the Valley of the Sun....Sky Harbor just hasn't had much luck this season as literally every storm has managed to skip over it, weaken or track around the official reading for the valley.  Many areas were blessed with rains yesterday but not at the airport with only 0.01" of precip and the day before (8/31) a whopping 0.06".  

 

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Where did summer go? Yesterday we not only flipped the calendar to September we also are now at the start of meteorological autumn. I know there are some people that do not like the warmer temperature and high humidity of summer and look forward toward the fall season. While others like the cold and snow of winter.  Well, I am a weather enthusiast so while I prefer the warmer months of the year I am interested in all types of weather. Before my sister passed away, we would go down to Fort Myers in the winter for a few weeks to get out of the cold and snow for a while. And even after she passed, we still would go down for a week or two. We have not gone since COVID, and I have not decided if we will go somewhere warm this winter or not yet. Anyway, it is now time to look at both some average and records or both September and meteorological autumn at Grand Rapids, Michigan.

September

In September at Grand Rapids the 30 year mean is 63.5 and the 15 year mean is 64.2. The average  30 year high/low 78.6/58.3 on the 1st dropping to 68.0/47.6 by the 30th the 15 year average high/low starts out at 79.1/58.6 and drops down to 68.4/48.6 by the 30th so Grand Rapids drops over 10° over the 30 days.  The warmest mean for any September is 69.0 in 1931. In that September there was a “heat wave” that lasted 6 days with 5 days in a row of 90 or better with two of the days at 94, one at 93 and two at 92. Yet another very warm September was the one in 2017 that year GR had a real heat wave with 6 days in a row of 90 or better and 7 days of 87 or better. The coldest mean was 56.2 in 1918. That September had 9 days that highs stayed in the 50’s. The highest temperature recorded at GR in September is 98 set on September 2nd  1913 the coldest low of 27 was set on September 27, 1991 during that cold snap lows of 31 and 32 were also recorded. The wettest September was in 1986 when 11.85” fell and the driest was in 1979 when just a trace was reported.

Meteorological autumn

For meteorological autumn (September, October and November) the new 30 year mean is 51.6 and the 15 year mean is 52.1. The average amount of precipitation is 10.53 for 30 years and 10.92 for 15 years. The 30-year average autumn snow fall is 7.4” but the new 15-year average is now down to 5.2” The most snow to fall in any October was 7.4” in 1967 and the most in any November was 31.0” in 2014. 2014 has the most snow fall for any autumn with 31.0” last year was the 2nd snowiest fall with 28.0” other snowy falls are 1951 with 26.9, 1991 with 25.6 and 1989 with 25.2. In 1907 no snow was reported in the fall season 1984, The autumns in 1948,1946 and 1931 only had a trace in the fall season. The warmest fall season was in 1931 with a mean of 57.5 in 1931 and the coldest was 45.8 in 1976. The most snow is 31.0” set in 2014 the least amount of snow is a trace in several years. The most days of 90 or better is 7 set in 1931 there were 6 days of 90 or better in 2017. The record hottest days in autumn are 98 on September 2nd 1913, it reached 97 on September 1st 1953 and that same 97 the next year on September 7th 1954. In more recent times readings of 96 and 95 and 94 were recorded in the 2017 heat wave. The record low for autumn was a bone chilling -10 on November 24th, 1950, there was also a -9 on the 23rd of that November. The low has dropped below +10 in 13 past autumns that last time it has happened was November 19th 1986.

We will now sit back and see how meteorological autumn will play out for 2023.

Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 79/50 there was no rain fall and there was 100% of possible sunshine. With a mean temperature of 65 there were 0 HDD’s since July 1st there have been 14 HDD’s that is -4. With that mean of 65 there were also no CDD’s and since January 1st there have been 568 that is a departure of -88. So over all this summer season has had less than average energy use. For today the average H/L is 78/58 the record high of 98 was set in 1913 and that is also the record high for September at Grand Rapids. The record low of 37 was set in 1946. The record rain fall amount of 2.17” fell in 1923. Last year the H/L was 84/65 and there was no rain fall.

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CPC update that came out yesterday is changing in tune in regards to precipitation.  The weather pattern looks to turn much more active beginning the middle of next week and I believe it may stay active to finish out the month.

 Latest 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Latest 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Temperatures look to remain above normal for all of us.

 Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

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Another below normal day today across the County...but by Monday we look to start our most sustained heat of the summer to date. It could even be a "heat wave" with 3 or more consecutive days over 90 degrees. Of course while many spots in the county should see multiple days over 90...I suspect East Nantmeal and other relatively higher spots will top out in the upper 80's for the most part....but fingers crossed I can see my first 90+ day in over 2 years!!
 
Records for today: High 102 (1953) / Low 42 (1934) / Rain 2.00" (1959)
image.png.a7f61bdb2b84de3e15b8850a774657fd.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Added a few more rural location chilly summer climate analysis rankings around the area:

  • Western Chesco 130 years of data -8th coldest May-Aug & 13th chilliest June-Aug
  • Glenmoore PA finished with their 7th coldest May-Aug with 67 years of data & 23rd chilliest June-Aug
  • KMQS Airport in Coatesville 16 years of data - finished with their 5th coldest May-Aug & 4th chilliest Jun-Aug
  • Hamburg (Berks County) 130 years of data - 12th coldest May - Aug & 18th chilliest June-Aug
  • New Holland (Lancaster) 32 years of data - 2nd coldest May - Aug & 5th chilliest June-Aug
  • KPTW Airport in Pottstown (Montgomery) 25 years of data - #1 Coldest May-August & 2nd chilliest June-Aug
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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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We have 98*. Partly cloudy.  
After 100’s this is a break.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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10 hours ago, Clinton said:

CPC update that came out yesterday is changing in tune in regards to precipitation.  The weather pattern looks to turn much more active beginning the middle of next week and I believe it may stay active to finish out the month.

 Latest 6 to 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Latest 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Temperatures look to remain above normal for all of us.

 Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Latest 8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Troughs east of Mississippi  river almost never bring above avg rain here. Need a trough eastern rockies. I dont see it

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Storms riding along the ridge in the nw flow will give us a chance. We'll see how it sets up.

That was a good pattern for omaha kc much of mo and even far se of iowa like Burlington  keokuk fort Madison. This coming pattern could be similar? But I got  1 wet week of that nw flow ring of fire all summer.  My area is literally  getting  barely  2 to 4 above avg rainfall weeks per yr. Recently 

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Yesterday was a great early September day with the official H/L of 81/56 at Grand Rapids. There were 0 HDD’s and 4 CDD’s there was no rain fall and the sun was out 43% of the time. The highest wind speed was 29 MPH out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 78/58 the record high of 95 was set in 1898 and 1953 the record low of 32 was set in 1946 this is the earliest fall reading of 32 or below at Grand Rapids. The most rain fall of 1.42” fell in 1988. Last year the H/L was 85/64.

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Considering the CPC outlook that was posted, the pattern seems to be relatively high confidence in the ensembles. It looks like the SW ridge from most of early summer will settle back in. This will kick off another prolonged period of MCS activity here with initially warm and humid weather probably cooling a bit with time as the ridge sinks south. Probably cooler and drier in the northern Plains but I would think most of us should be happy with this. The one exception might be for TX where it's not looking good. 

Anyway, I've attached the height/pwat/upper air wind for 1 and 2 weeks away. You can see how its basically the same pattern in both. 

image.png

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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We should reach the upper 80's across most spots in the county today. Starting tomorrow 90+ temps are likely for most through Thursday. We chill down back to near normal by next weekend.
Records for today: High 101 (1953) / Low 45 (1994) / Rain 2.40" (1963)
image.png.71b5210e49ad1d854458b84bb00f0bea.png

DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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10 minutes ago, luminen said:

any thoughts on Invest 95L (Lee)? It looks to have potential to be quite strong. 😬

EPS favors a fish storm with a low chance of impacting portions of the Caribbean and even lower chances of the CONUS. Bermuda should be on notice though. 

image.gif

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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13 minutes ago, luminen said:

any thoughts on Invest 95L (Lee)? It looks to have potential to be quite strong. 😬

Do you really live in Tignish PAE? What's it like up there? (both weather and life in general)

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Ran across an insight from long ago on Texas weather.  We’ve recently had a massive influx of Californians who are probably questioning their decision to move here.  

Gen. Philip Sheridan, who was stationed in Fort Clark in 1866, supposedly said, “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”

People just don’t realize how hot it gets here, and how cold.  We’re a land of extremes.  Air masses collide and hurricanes love to track into our Gulf. So I’m wondering how many have packed up and moved to Colorado?   

We’ll have 100+ the next 10 days. Colorado’s foothills will be a bit different I’m sure.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Not right in the town, but fairly close.

Weather is interesting for sure. It's usually windy any time of year, lots of snow in general, usually pleasant temps in summer but June 1st was very hot in the region this year. It reached 30-33C on the island on that day. A day or two later, and it was 6C at 2pm with rain all day. 

Fiona was unpleasant last year. 

Life in general...it's very quiet and relaxed. Maybe too quiet. 

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2 minutes ago, luminen said:

Not right in the town, but fairly close.

Weather is interesting for sure. It's usually windy any time of year, lots of snow in general, usually pleasant temps in summer but June 1st was very hot in the region this year. It reached 30-33C on the island on that day. A day or two later, and it was 6C at 2pm with rain all day. 

Fiona was unpleasant last year. 

Life in general...it's very quiet and relaxed. Maybe too quiet. 

I think I remember reading that Fiona brought a record amount of snow and lots of wind. I'd assume there is fairly good infrastructure for snow removal at least. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

EPS favors a fish storm with a low chance of impacting portions of the Caribbean and even lower chances of the CONUS. Bermuda should be on notice though. 

image.gif

Gary says per the LRC that the invest is forecasted per his models to hit the Florida coast per his blog a couple days ago. We shall see how his prediction turns out 

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Top 20 Warmest Summer Months in Chester County (May through August) - no summers in this century and none at all with the exception of 1991 since 1955 that have cracked the Top 20!

Top 20 Warmest May - August Summers
Rank Year Avg Temp
1 1944 74.1
2 1943 73.9
3 1900 72.9
4 1911 72.4
5 1942 72.0
6 1918 71.8
7 1991 71.7
8 1898 71.5
9 1899 71.5
10 1959 71.4
11 1901 71.4
12 1906 71.4
13 1934 71.3
14 1955 71.2
15 1921 71.1
16 1941 71.0
17 1933 70.9
18 1922 70.9
19 1896 70.9
20 1908 70.9
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DISCLAMER: All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA. The data has been statistically validated (p <0.05) for this county as accurate for the period 1894 to Present. This statistical significance has been proven across multiple NWS observers and site changes across a <9 nautical mile area of Western Chester County. We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters.  Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Very productive day up here at the TC home. Got some chores done that we've been putting off. My weather station hit 97 for a high and 103 for a heat index. Grilled some chops tonight and now having a campfire. It's upper 80s and humid with no breeze but it's all good. Enjoying the long end of summer weekend!

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1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Very productive day up here at the TC home. Got some chores done that we've been putting off. My weather station hit 97 for a high and 103 for a heat index. Grilled some chops tonight and now having a campfire. It's upper 80s and humid with no breeze but it's all good. Enjoying the long end of summer weekend!

We’ve had it easier than you up north and our friends west of here.  Strong SW winds today didn’t make it feel to hot in the low 90’s.  DP’s have hovered in the upper 50’s which isn’t bad at all.  Tomorrow will be a different story and on Tuesday.  Perfect bonfire wx later this week/weekend!

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Happy Labor Day to you all!  The Labor Day Torch is here today as we haven't dipped below 70F and the DP's have risen to near 70F.  Heading up towards a record temp of 95F today, but breezy SW winds will help "cool" the body.  ORD topped out at 94F yesterday and 89F on SAT.  Remember WGN hyping upper 90's?  That's not happening...thankfully!  Love, love, love seeing nothing but 70's in the grid in the extended forecast.  Fall weather will be setting in for a while. 

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The Season opener for the Football Season begins next weekend and the Chicago Bear's will host the Packers at Soldier Field.  Should be an interesting season without Rodgers at QB and a revamped Bear's linuep.  The weather looks "beautious"....the Euro is really tanking temps in the extended!  

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Happy Labor Day! The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 90/65 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 89% of the possible time. There were 13 CDD’s That 90° high was the 1st time it has gotten to 90 or better on September 3rd since 1973. The highest wind speed of 30 MPH was out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 94 was set in 1898 and 1925 the record low of 38 was set in 1974. The most rain fall of 2.82” fell in 2008. Last year the H/L was 69/59 and there was 0.03” of rain fall.

If it makes it to 90 today it will be the warmest September 4th at Grand Rapids since 1948. And the warmest at Lansing since 1973. The week ahead looks to start off on the very warm side and become rather wet mid week then cool down to below average for late week. At the current time the official temperature at GRR is reported as 70 with a DP of 67. Here in MBY I have a reading several degrees cooler with a temperature of 64 and a DP of 60.

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