September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

enjoy the warmth as much as you can and prep for an early Autumn (heck, you can say it has already come up by you).

It has not been cool yet here in Michigan but just to the north of GR there is already a lot of color on the trees. This is not really all that usual and things will slow down over the next month or more.  

[Tom]

ORD had "back-2-back" highs of 94F and with one more day in the 90's today, it will be an official Heat Wave...but the end is near as a CF is going to make its way through the region later tonight as storms fire up along it.  It's been 18 days and counting with ZERO precip record at ORD.  Bone dry, the grass is turning brown and the vegetation could use a good drink from mother nature.  If your yearning for Autumnal weather, its coming, Finally...after a long hot summer for many on here, it's time to pop a bottle of champaign and begin #bonfire season!

We need the rains to start coming up north and over the MW.  Why?  The Mississippi River is low and this will undoubtedly cause concern for higher food prices.  Barge prices have risen to very high levels.  Not a good combination heading into harvest season.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freight-rates-surge-mississippi-river-222828868.html?guccounter=1

[westMJim]

 Here are the H/L for each Labor day since 2010 at Grand Rapids. 2023 90/69, 2022 71/58, 2021 76/55, 2020 77/61, 2019 80/59, 2018 83/39, 2017 81/57, 2016 86/57, 2015 85/72, 2014 81/67, 2013 73/61, 2012 89/62, 2011 65/49 and 2010 74/59. Of course the dates have range from September 1st 2014 to September 7th 2020, 2015.  

[Black Hole]

11 hours ago, luminen said:

Yeah snow removal is very robust here. 

Fiona (2022 September) didn't bring snow here though. Was there another Fiona that did?

Probably not. I just remembered some weather channel named storm up there a few years back that dropped like 30 inches in a day with a lot of wind. For some reason Fiona made me think of that but it was probably a different one.  

 

 

[chescowxman]

Most spots reached the low 90's yesterday and should get close to that same level today. Here in East Nantmeal we were oh so close 89.4 degrees!! But, will have to hope today or tomorrow to reach the elusive 90 degree mark. My rooftop station (Tempest) did reach 92.1 degrees for the 3rd time this year... but both properly sited ground stations could do not better than 89.6 (Ambient) and 89.4. (Davis VP)

Records for today: High 95 (1898) / Low 42 (1988) / Rain 3.47" (1979)

[Iceresistance]

My God

120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

[tStacsh]

92 with a DP of 71.  Last really hot day of summer it seems.  Doesn't mean we won't have warm days, but back to average after this.   

[luminen]

7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Probably not. I just remembered some weather channel named storm up there a few years back that dropped like 30 inches in a day with a lot of wind. For some reason Fiona made me think of that but it was probably a different one.  

 

 

Hmm I haven't been here long so I didn't experience that. Sounds like a Nor'easter. 

[Black Hole]

This seems like a bit earlier than I was expecting, but model guidance does seem to be trending towards a troughy mid September. It's not just one and done, some indication of it sticking around toward the latter half of the month too. 

Th

[Black Hole]

14 minutes ago, luminen said:

Hmm I haven't been here long so I didn't experience that. Sounds like a Nor'easter. 

It might have been this one:
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/this-day-in-weather-history-january-17-2020-st-johns-nl-blizzard

But that's east of you. Either way, I'll be interested to see how you do you there this year! I don't know anybody else in that part of the world. 

[luminen]

22 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

It might have been this one:
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/this-day-in-weather-history-january-17-2020-st-johns-nl-blizzard

But that's east of you. Either way, I'll be interested to see how you do you there this year! I don't know anybody else in that part of the world. 

Oh yeah I remember that St John's storm. Absolutely nuts.

All forecasts I've seen for New England/Atlantic Canada is snowier than normal and average temps.

[Clinton]

Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued.  Scattered strong storms along the cold front will hopefully end my 24 day dry streak.  Also as black hole showed above its possible this is the last day of nasty heat this season.  It's currently 97 with a heat index of 104.

[james1976]

Forecast high of 66 tomorrow! Yeah I'll take it. Severe Thunderstorm Watch tonight as the cold front moves through.

[hawkstwelve]

Front has moved through with a pretty stiff NW wind and a chilly feel to the air, especially when compared to the past couple weeks. Temp has quickly fallen to 66 after topping out at 87.

Loving the turn the models have taken to begin the cool/wet period quicker than previously anticipated. I'm beyond ready for some sweatshirt weather!

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued.  Scattered strong storms along the cold front will hopefully end my 24 day dry streak.  Also as black hole showed above its possible this is the last day of nasty heat this season.  It's currently 97 with a heat index of 104.

Looking forward to our turn.  
This has been a long streak of heat.  
103, 104, then 106 Friday. 
Then Sat/Sun 20% chance TStorms. High of 98/99. 

[Hawkeye]

A few days ago the NWS had mid to upper 90s today.  Instead, we had some decent clouds and only reached 88º.  The heat is done after today, but the drought isn't.  There are only two patterns this summer/fall.... warm and dry, and cool and dry.

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Front has moved through with a pretty stiff NW wind and a chilly feel to the air, especially when compared to the past couple weeks. Temp has quickly fallen to 66 after topping out at 87.

Loving the turn the models have taken to begin the cool/wet period quicker than previously anticipated. I'm beyond ready for some sweatshirt weather!

Had our first junior high football game today and it went from summer to fall by half! The front feels amazing and currently have my north windows open. Wife and I watching tv in living room with blankets because of the cool fall feel!

[Madtown]

Fall is here folks

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Had our first junior high football game today and it went from summer to fall by half! The front feels amazing and currently have my north windows open. Wife and I watching tv in living room with blankets because of the cool fall feel!

I was just going to post the same thing. I coach our 7th grade and 8th grade football teams. We played Kearney Catholic at home, won both games. North wind was howling through about 6:30, then the real front hit. Sure wish I had brought a jacket or sweatshirt. When we finished after 8 pm, it was chilly. Got home and my wife had opened all the windows and shut off the a/c for the first time in who knows how long. Low forecasted of 45 tonight. Love it. 

[Tom]

I woke up to a noisy morning but only a few drops of rain as the main storm action is JUST to my SE...ORD did get hit and broke the streak of 19 days with no rain.

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very warm September day. A record high and low was set at Muskegon with a high of 92 and a record low of 79. In Grand Rapids the official high yesterday was 91 and the low was a record warmest minimum of 71. There have now been 14 days this year of 90 or better. The average is 12 and this is the most since 2020 when there were 17.  There was no rain fall and the sun was out 75% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 77/57 the record high of 97 was set in 1954 and the record low of 36 was set in 1962. The record rain fall of 1.67” fell in 1985. Last year the H/L was 76/61 and there was no rain fall.

[Tom]

Out in the Valley of the Sun, it's been one for the record books...I lived through the 2020 summer, but this year was a bit different bc the Heat turned on later in JUN and literally the whole month of JUL and then somewhat into AUG.  Just an incredibly hot summer with countless days above 110F and Excessive Heat warnings.  Autumn weather can't come soon enough, although, this past Holiday weekend wasn't to bad with temps near 100F.

 

 

[chescowxman]

We were actually a little bit "cooler" across most locations in Chester County yesterday compared to Monday with more spots falling short of the 90 degree mark. Today and tomorrow should for almost all locations (exception likely being East Nantmeal) see temps into the low 90's.

Records for today: High 96 (1900) / Low 38 (1924) / Rain 2.96" (2008)

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks we got down to 48 this morning. Thick smoke kept temps up a few degrees. This smoke will also keep temperatures a little cooler today. We opened the windows, but the smoke smell forced us to close them this morning. 

[Iceresistance]

Last night was wild, I had 60-70 mph winds, this was confirmed since I have tree damage.

 

Pictures coming in the afternoon...

[jaster220]

On 9/4/2023 at 7:40 AM, westMJim said:

It will be over soon but here are the web cams from the bridge walk
https://www.mackinacbridge.org/fares-traffic/bridge-cam/

Did you see me? I was there, walked the north side from St. Ignace. A steady breeze had the center section swaying under your feet just enough that you could see/feel it. First time I've experienced that. Weather was perfect and otherwise had a great couple days in the region.

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Did you see me? I was there, walked the north side from St. Ignace.

I thought that was you.....LOL

[Andie]

Currently 103   Humidity 35%

We’ll squeeze another degree out of this lemon.  

[chescowxman]

Made it to 88.4 on the "official" VP station and 88.7 on my Ambient model. The roof top station did hit 90+ for the 3rd straight day...still no 90+ days here in East Nantmeal in more than 2 years! Last chance for a 90 plus day this year looks to be tomorrow....

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/5/2023 at 6:01 AM, Tom said:

Something is telling me this will be a "Frozen Tundra" come JAN...enjoy the warmth as much as you can and prep for an early Autumn (heck, you can say it has already come up by you).

Meantime, our friends wayyy down south should really like what the models are showing.  Is this the trough that "breaks the Summer back?"  I am becoming increasingly convinced ya'll down south are going to come out of Summers grip with a nice Flip.   @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole and the Okie crew.

 

 

....just for fun, not a forecast, but some early signs of the new LRC???  Kinda looks like many of the maps @Black Holeand others have posted in our threads.  That is a classic El Nino #STJ pattern...I'm going to try and dial in on the up pattern ahead as we get towards the middle of the month and provide some clues of the new LRC.  This is about the time of year I start paying attn to Eurasia and the snow that begins to fall up in the northern lats among other variables at play.  My gut feeling is this will be an overall active and exciting season tracking storms.  

 

There's stuff setting up right now that looks almost too good to be true if you love real winter and cold weather. 

[james1976]

Cloudy, north breeze and mid 60s today. No complaints here! What a change 

[hawkstwelve]

Topped out at 73 today, first high in the 70s over the past 11 days. Very refreshing. 

Looking like we may have turned the corner with only a couple highs in 80s projected for the next 7-10 days. Hopefully the last of 100+ temps at the very least.

[hawkstwelve]

Sioux Falls is still running -5.36 for YTD precip. It would be really nice to get a couple decent soakings over the next month or two to help make up some of that lost ground before the soil starts to freeze up. Almost the entirety of the Midwest is running behind on soil moisture.

Unfortunately while things may cool down, it's looking pretty dry. Precip anomalies continue to be negative for a good section of the Midwest over the next 10 days, owing in part to a fairly weak STJ and the polar jet running into Canada. Need to get that STJ to crank up a bit and get some moisture going into the central CONUS.

[Tom]

Pretty cool lake enhanced CF came through a bit ago that brought some showery weather earlier this morning....you know it is Autumn when you start seeing these lake effect showers streaming off the lake.  I'm curious if we'll see any water spouts across the GL's next week as a pretty potent trough rotates through.  I know we'll see lake effect showers today and tomorrow over N IN.

 

[Tom]

I forgot to mention that on Labor Day, the NWS out in Salt Lake city reported their first snows of the season up near Bald mountain.  This region had a record snow year last season.  Did nature just give us a clue for this coming winter???  Ya buddy!

https://townlift.com/2023/09/snapped-first-snow-of-the-2023-2024-winter-season-in-utah/

 

[Tom]

@Niko, were these heavy rains by you out in Greece?

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/68. The official rain fall amount was 0.16” Here in MBY I recorded 0.32” of rain fall. The highest wind speed of 35 MPH was out of the SW. There was 25% of possible sunshine.  For today the average H/L is now down to 77/56 the record high of 96 was set in 1960 and the record low of 38 was set in 1986. The record rain fall of 1.64” fell in 1987. Last year the H/L was 79/56.

The week ahead looks to be more early fall like than what we have been seeing this weekend is summed up in todays NWS discussion  as -COLD, CLEAR AND MILD THIS WEEKEND--  After a brief warm up this weekend it will turn cooler again and highs will range from the 60’s today and tomorrow and then the mid to upper 70’s before falling back into the 60’s again. Lows will be in the 50’s to upper 40’s. 

A period of "don't have to" that is don't have to have the heat on and don't have to have the air on. Enjoy having the windows open.

[chescowxman]

One more day of 90+ temps across much of the county before rain chances increase with showers possible starting this evening through the weekend. Some models have well over an inch of needed rain by Monday morning. We have only seen one day with measurable rain in the last 12 days and that was only 0.09" on the 30th.

Records for today: High 93 (1954) / Low 37 (1924) / Rain 2.57" (2011)

[Andie]

Bit of a change ahead.  
Looking forward to not frying.  

[Phil]

I guess this is one way to knock the temperature down.

 

 

[chescowxman]

High Temps today here in NW Chesco - Ambient station made it to 89.7 - Davis VP2 hit 89.1 and the rooftop Tempest hit 90.5.

The heaviest of the evening storm passed just NW of East Nantmeal as we have received 0.19" so far

[james1976]

My weather station shows a high of 64 today. Currently 57. Yeah I'll take this! Some leaves have fallen as well but I know it's mainly from hot n dry conditions. Regardless....signs of Fall!

[OKwx2k4]

Glad to hear thunder and rainfall returning to my area tonight. 

Doing some record searches for fun I discovered that September has an incredible temperature range at Fayetteville Arkansas. 

The all-time high is 103 (tied on 3 other occasions), and the all-time low was 31. It has frosted three times in September since records began there in 1949. 

Makes June, July and August the only 3 months here which have not recorded frost or freeze. I don't believe we will see that this year, but it is interesting. 

Of the coldest Septembers on record, only 2009 at 15th place ever went on to produce a great winter. However of the memorable warmest and driest episodes in September history, 2000 being a prime example and 2013 as another, the winter that followed was epic. 

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Glad to hear thunder and rainfall returning to my area tonight. 

Doing some record searches for fun I discovered that September has an incredible temperature range at Fayetteville Arkansas. 

The all-time high is 103 (tied on 3 other occasions), and the all-time low was 31. It has frosted three times in September since records began there in 1949. 

Makes June, July and August the only 3 months here which have not recorded frost or freeze. I don't believe we will see that this year, but it is interesting. 

Of the coldest Septembers on record, only 2009 at 15th place ever went on to produce a great winter. However of the memorable warmest and driest episodes in September history, 2000 being a prime example and 2013 as another, the winter that followed was epic. 

So you are in Fayetteville? Lots of storm activity over there tonight. I'm on shift tonight and we've put out a number of SVR warnings west of there. 

[Andie]

They’re forecasting 107/108 today.  

Enough of this. Our power generation is stressed and for the past 2 weeks asking everyone to raise their thermostats.  
The mass exodus into Tx is taking its toll on power generation/high demand.  No doubt some are wondering why they chose to come here. 
Currently 81*,  DP 60.  
Humidity 46%

High today 107/108

[Tom]

When the lake is your "friend"...come back in the Winter months!  This is a prime time set up for lake effect rain and/or snow if it were cold enough.  Nature just teasing me on this cool and overcast morning (61F).  I'm definitely in Autumn mode now and next week looks even chillier with highs in the upper 60's.  I can already smell the bon fires burning!

 

[chescowxman]

We picked up 0.26" between both rounds of rain last night...much more fell to the west of Chesco. Showers and t-storm chances will continue through the weekend...not a washout but keep those umbrellas handy. We do need the rain. Yesterday should be the last time this year most spots in the county see a 90 degree reading. Here in East Nantmeal we failed to exceed 90 degrees for the 2nd straight summer. This is the 4th time in my 20 years of local observations in EN that we did not reach 90 even rounded in a summer.

Records for today: High 95 (1939) / Low 40 (1984) / Rain 5.36" (1987)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 73/60 there was a reported 0.01” of rain fall. The sun was out 14% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 14 MPH out of the NW.  At the current time it is cloudy and 59 here in MBY. For today the average H/L is 77/56. The record high of 95 was set in 1897, 1922 and 1960. The record low of 36 was set in 1951. The record rain fall amount of 2.27” fell in 1989.  Last year the H/L was 82/55.

[Clinton]

Some great fall like weather for me this weekend, now if only I could get some beneficial rain. Mid 70s showing up for next week!

[Madtown]

Chilling with clouds and 48 atm.