September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Chilling with clouds and 48 atm. 

Had showers and 53 here in NEMI at my cousin's cottage.

[bud2380]

This would be very welcome around here.  This is for Sunday night into Monday AM.

 

[Andie]

Topping out at 108*
Humidity 21%
Felt like I was standing over a hot grill as I walked out to get the mail just now.  Just horrible.  Equaled by the glare and my headache. 

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms into the overnight across North Texas. Generally, after 10 p.m. thunderstorms will move into northeastern areas of North Texas from Oklahoma. Storms will continue until early Saturday morning.

Looking forward to High of 80* Tuesday with thunderstorms.  What a treat!  Let’s hope the back is broken on this summer heat.  

[Iceresistance]

Storms coming into DFW, but I bet they go poof when they get there

[Andie]

Actually it’s showing it will track over me.  They’ll fade in strength but hey! Beggars aren’t choosers!

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 64/55. That high of 64 was the coolest high at Grand Rapids since a high of 64 on June 12th the last time the high was cooler than 64 was a 62 on May 17th There was a reported trace of rain fall yesterday. The official total for September is now 0.17” for the year GR is now at 26.59” that is below the average of  27.23” for a departure of -0.64” There were 5 HDD’s since July 1st there have been 19  that is a departure of -10. There were 0 CDD’s since January 1st  there have been  628 that is a departure of -55. So this year has had less energy use than average so far. It was a cloudy day yesterday with just 4% of possible sunshine that came late in the day. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set way back in 1897. The record  low of 37 was set in 1975. The record rain fall amount of 2.25” fell in 1920. Last year the H/L was 81/56.

From todays weather discussion from the NWS

 AS NOTED ALREADY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW   60S; THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.   THURSDAY MORNING CURRENTLY FEATURES FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO   MID 40S, BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS REASONING THAT FROST IS NOT OUT OF   THE QUESTION IF WE EXPERIENCE MORE FAVORABLE TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE   OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.  

[Tom]

12 hours ago, Andie said:

Topping out at 108*
Humidity 21%
Felt like I was standing over a hot grill as I walked out to get the mail just now.  Just horrible.  Equaled by the glare and my headache. 

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms into the overnight across North Texas. Generally, after 10 p.m. thunderstorms will move into northeastern areas of North Texas from Oklahoma. Storms will continue until early Saturday morning.

Looking forward to High of 80* Tuesday with thunderstorms.  What a treat!  Let’s hope the back is broken on this summer heat.  

I spoke to my cousin down in DFW and he told me that his pool water temp is a BALMY 91F!  I asked him, how the heck does that cool you off?  I would toss a massive ice cube in the pool and just lay on top of it...LOL, it's a testament as to how Hot its been for our Texans down south.  Enjoy the pattern change next week!

[Tom]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 64/55. That high of 64 was the coolest high at Grand Rapids since a high of 64 on June 12th the last time the high was cooler than 64 was a 62 on May 17th There was a reported trace of rain fall yesterday. The official total for September is now 0.17” for the year GR is now at 26.59” that is below the average of  27.23” for a departure of -0.64” There were 5 HDD’s since July 1st there have been 19  that is a departure of -10. There were 0 CDD’s since January 1st  there have been  628 that is a departure of -55. So this year has had less energy use than average so far. It was a cloudy day yesterday with just 4% of possible sunshine that came late in the day. For today the average H/L is 77/56 the record high of 95 was set way back in 1897. The record  low of 37 was set in 1975. The record rain fall amount of 2.25” fell in 1920. Last year the H/L was 81/56.

From todays weather discussion from the NWS

 AS NOTED ALREADY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW   60S; THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND.   THURSDAY MORNING CURRENTLY FEATURES FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER TO   MID 40S, BUT AGREE WITH PREVIOUS REASONING THAT FROST IS NOT OUT OF   THE QUESTION IF WE EXPERIENCE MORE FAVORABLE TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE   OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.  

Frosty nights next week?  I think the Northwoods are in a prime location as a chilly Canadian HP tracks overhead.  It's going to get real nice and chilly mid next week.  40's are not out of the question in the western burbs over here.

Meantime, this morning my temp dropped to a comfy 55F and I see there are plenty of 50's and 40's across the Sub this morning.  @Clinton is probably enjoying this morning!  Autumn has arrived and it appears to be sticking around for quite a while around these parts.  "Trough after Trough" is likely to rotate through the GL's/MW region through mid month.  

The 0z Euro still looking good for a nice soaking across the I-80 corridor...I feel like we are tracking a west/east ribbon of SNOW...just using my imagination this morning!  

 

 

[Clinton]

33 minutes ago, Tom said:

Frosty nights next week?  I think the Northwoods are in a prime location as a chilly Canadian HP tracks overhead.  It's going to get real nice and chilly mid next week.  40's are not out of the question in the western burbs over here.

Meantime, this morning my temp dropped to a comfy 55F and I see there are plenty of 50's and 40's across the Sub this morning.  @Clinton is probably enjoying this morning!  Autumn has arrived and it appears to be sticking around for quite a while around these parts.  "Trough after Trough" is likely to rotate through the GL's/MW region through mid month.  

The 0z Euro still looking good for a nice soaking across the I-80 corridor...I feel like we are tracking a west/east ribbon of SNOW...just using my imagination this morning!  

 

 

We are opening up windows this morning and letting the nice cool country air pull through the house.  I absolutely love this time of year.  We have got to get some rain soon, ponds are starting to dry up and I'm very concerned about the water situation or lack of on the farm.

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We are opening up windows this morning and letting the nice cool country air pull through the house.  I absolutely love this time of year.  We have got to get some rain soon, ponds are starting to dry up and I'm very concerned about the water situation or lack of on the farm.

I love the smell of that country air!  Gosh, it brings me great memories of road trips when I was a kid and driving through the rolling hills and enjoying the smells in the early morning hours.  Enjoy it!  As for the rain, you may want to do a rain dance for Mother Nature!  

[OKwx2k4]

I'm sitting at a nice cool 60 degrees this morning. 

Fall is officially here in green country. I couldn't be happier. Going to be a beautiful season. 

[CentralNebWeather]

How’s this for a forecast?  Beautiful. 

[Andie]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

I spoke to my cousin down in DFW and he told me that his pool water temp is a BALMY 91F!  I asked him, how the heck does that cool you off?  I would toss a massive ice cube in the pool and just lay on top of it...LOL, it's a testament as to how Hot its been for our Texans down south.  Enjoy the pattern change next week!

No one gets in the pool unfortunately.  
Just too hot.  
We received a heavy storm last night. Just buckets for an extended time.   
I don’t have a rain total right now as my gauge cracked from the heat. 
But it was no small rain, quite heavy for 30 mins. and so very welcomed. Lost some trees on the golf course from high winds.  

I’m going guesstimate that we received between .50 inches +.
Currently 78.  On the way to 98. 
Edit -  At 2pm - 92*

[chescowxman]

In East Nantmeal we picked up 0.08" of rain so far since last night. It appears rain chances will be ramping up across the County later today through Sunday night. We do need the rain as we are now over 4 inches below our normal year to date rainfall through yesterday.

Records for today: High 94 (1959) / Low 38 (1975) / Rain 2.15" (1972)

[Niko]

On 9/7/2023 at 7:55 AM, Tom said:

@Niko, were these heavy rains by you out in Greece?

 

I gotta tell ya....it was an extremely hot summer in Greece and yes, flooded rains soaked almost everyone (Record rainfall was recorded), including my place in Andros Island. Luckily no damage, just flooded roads. Also, it was definitely needed to at least wipe out any future fires. Temps hit the mid to upper 110's (all time record highs in spots) and lows dropped in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Luckily, there is no humidity there, but still, it can get darn HOT!!!

[Niko]

Next week (mid week period) comes a real cooldown w potential high in the upper 50s to near 60F and lows in the lower to mid 40s. Hello Autumn!! 

[Andie]

We’re feeling’ the love down here. 
The change is on our doorstep and most welcome…”come on in!”

 

[Andie]

We had a very close call this Thursday/Fri

Texas narrowly avoided rolling blackouts on Wednesday and Thursday, according to multiple reports.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s grid operator, declared a “stage 2” emergency on Wednesday, which is one level below declaring a need for rolling blackouts, according to The Wall Street Journal. Then, on Thursday, the Department of Energy (DOE) declared a state of energy emergency for ERCOT as sustained high temperatures kept demand high and pushed the grid dangerously close to rolling blackouts for a second consecutive night.

“At one point around 7:30 p.m. CT Wednesday, ERCOT data showed just more than 1,000 MW of available dispatchable capacity,” David Blackmon, a 40-year veteran of the oil and gas business who now writes and consults on energy, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Had a single high-capacity natural gas or coal plant experienced a failure during that time, blackouts would have resulted.”
____________________

I just hate this summer.

[Black Hole]

Ready to move on! What a terrific forecast we have coming up and such a change from what we've been seeing. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro continues its flopping back and forth with the Monday morning wave of rain.  The latest run is back to being bullish, showing a swath of 1+" through my area.  A few others models have jumped on board, too.

[Tom]

@Black Hole @Andie I think my friends back in PHX will also agree to say "Sayonara" to the Summer of 2023.  PHX set a record high of 110F on the 8th and a ridiculous 114F record daily high yesterday!  Today, will likely be the last possilble 110F day of the season as the rest of the month looks like temps FINALLY head downward and I'm seeing some low 90's showing up late month.  Rain chances are also the rise this week.

Our local WGN weather graphic made a big error as I'm a stickler for proper grammar checks...It's NOT supposed to say consecutive days, but instead, it should be referred to as a total of 110F+ days for the year.

 

 

 

[Tom]

It's a rather nice and cool morning, calm winds and clear skies.  Current temp is 55F and heading up to the upper 70's today and the weather along the lakefront should be prime time Autumn weather for the Bear's game.  Looks like a good soaking rain is on the way early tomorrow morning through the afternoon.  It'll feel like an OCT like day with temps in the 60's and dreary weather.  Your quintessential stratiform rain along a west/east frontal boundary.  Kinda like what @OttumwaSnomow looks for!  Hey, I can't complain bc we need the rain. 

 

ORD may have 3 consecutive days in the 60's Mon-Wed...iirc, I don't recall a recent SEP where we've had a string of 60's this early.  Maybe SEP 2013 or '14?  Maybe someone can dig that stat up.

[Clinton]

Man do I like the looks at this 5 day forecast! Unfortunately no significant rain to go along with it.

[Clinton]

The drought is really intensifying for MO and Iowa.  Yesterday was KC 27th consecutive day without measurable rain.

[Andie]

And a big ADIOS to Summer 2023 !! .   
Don’t let the door hit ya on the way out amigo!!!

High of 95 before a week of low 80’s and 20-40% chance of rain!  

[hawkstwelve]

So close yet so far. Rain chances have seemed to do this a lot lately - either it passes by to the north near Hwy 14/Brookings or stays south of Hwy 20/Sioux City. Sioux Falls sits smack in-between and we haven't seen any meaningful precip. The last time we had over a half inch of rainfall was 8/25 while you'd have to go all the way back to 8/6 to find amounts higher than an inch.

Pretty parched here, and apparently staying that way for the next 10 days.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 76/51 there was no rain fall. There were 3 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 16 MPH out of the N. There was 64% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is now down to 76/55 the record high of 94 was set in 1931 and 2013 the record low of 36 was set in 1917 and 1969. The record rain fall amount of 2.76” fell in 1986. Last year it was still a summer like 83/62

[chescowxman]

The first 9 days have been among the warmest starts to September we have ever seen with Glenmoore recording their 6th warmest start (67 years of data) and Western Chester with their 13th warmest (130 years of data) and at Phoenixville 23rd warmest (131 years of data) Many areas across the county have picked up over 0.5" of rain so far today with more on the way. Temps look to fall to well below normal levels by the end of the work week.

Records for today: High 99 (1897) / Low 38 (1975) / Rain 1.74" (2015)

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The drought is really intensifying for MO and Iowa.  Yesterday was KC 27th consecutive day without measurable rain.

If I recall correctly, my area was in a drought in the spring and then, these crazy downpours came and erased everything to above normal rainfall. Drought is no longer around. Crazy how M'Nature changes everything in a heart beat.

Btw: hope ya had a great summer bud!

[Clinton]

56 minutes ago, Niko said:

If I recall correctly, my area was in a drought in the spring and then, these crazy downpours came and erased everything to above normal rainfall. Drought is no longer around. Crazy how M'Nature changes everything in a heart beat.

Btw: hope ya had a great summer bud!

It's been a very hot and dry summer, which Is odd because it was also humid.  Several days with a heat index between 120 to 130.  I'll be happy when fall gets here to stay!

[CentralNebWeather]

Pouring rain and 63 degrees. Amazing. Has that late September feel. 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro continues its flopping back and forth with the Monday morning wave of rain.  The latest run is back to being bullish, showing a swath of 1+" through my area.  A few others models have jumped on board, too.

The new Euro run has flopped back to garbage for me.... big jump back south, yet again.  Meanwhile, the GFS has now gone bullish and north.  Even its ensemble mean bulls-eyes Cedar Rapids.  Other models are a mix, some up to an inch, others 0.30-0.50".

[CentralNebWeather]

[Andie]

Gorgeous evening.   
85 with a low of 72. 
Tomorrow a high of 90 with a 40% chance of rain.  
Perfect for Texas. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

17 hours ago, Tom said:

It's a rather nice and cool morning, calm winds and clear skies.  Current temp is 55F and heading up to the upper 70's today and the weather along the lakefront should be prime time Autumn weather for the Bear's game.  Looks like a good soaking rain is on the way early tomorrow morning through the afternoon.  It'll feel like an OCT like day with temps in the 60's and dreary weather.  Your quintessential stratiform rain along a west/east frontal boundary.  Kinda like what @OttumwaSnomow looks for!  Hey, I can't complain bc we need the rain. 

 

ORD may have 3 consecutive days in the 60's Mon-Wed...iirc, I don't recall a recent SEP where we've had a string of 60's this early.  Maybe SEP 2013 or '14?  Maybe someone can dig that stat up.

In the past 30 days Ive had  3 different  sprinkles for a grand total of .20"..   that come after a May with .89.  I did eek out 7 inches of rain between  june 19th thru Aug 11 which  was much more than other in our area got in mid summer. I wouldn't  rate the 2023 drought as bad as 2012 or 2017 both just horrible  here. But 2013 and 2022 seem not on par with  this one (not over).  Oh but trust me there were several other summers  particularly  july aug sept when  Wapello county  was deep into pretty  colors on the drought monitor.  But given the constant deficits  damp soil simply nonexistent  at any level currently.   Horrible. 

[Black Hole]

Not much to add from me today, but still looking like a very pleasant next week. Rain chances looking pretty good for tomorrow and a little lower for Thursday. 

[Tom]

It’s been a while since I’ve seen some decent rain…nice way to wake up and hear the rains pour down from the heavens!  Not much thunder, maybe a rumble or two from this heavy cell that rolled through.

 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

In the past 30 days Ive had  3 different  sprinkles for a grand total of .20"..   that come after a May with .89.  I did eek out 7 inches of rain between  june 19th thru Aug 11 which  was much more than other in our area got in mid summer. I wouldn't  rate the 2023 drought as bad as 2012 or 2017 both just horrible  here. But 2013 and 2022 seem not on par with  this one (not over).  Oh but trust me there were several other summers  particularly  july aug sept when  Wapello county  was deep into pretty  colors on the drought monitor.  But given the constant deficits  damp soil simply nonexistent  at any level currently.   Horrible. 

Nice rain falling in YBY....had a good feeling this event would deliver for you and E IA peeps...how about you @Hawkeye?

[Tom]

How long has it been since we've seen a NWS Alert map so quiet???  It's almost fitting as our Nation remembers the attacks on 9-11-2001.  #NeverForget

 

[Andie]

72 and rain on the way. 
Season is making a nice turn.  

[chescowxman]

Lesser chances of showers today across the County but still warmer than normal for nearing mid-September. Cold front crosses the area on Tuesday night and that will set up a below normal stretch of great weather that should last through the weekend. Would not be surprised to see some valley locations touch the 40's by Friday morning.

Records for today: High 99 (1897) / Low 34 (1924) / Rain 3.35" (1960)

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 76/61 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 73% of the possible time. There was just one HDD and the highest wind was just 14 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 94 was set in 1931 and the record low of 32 was set in 1943. The highest rain fall amount of 3.21” fell in 1986. Last year the H/L was 69/61 and there was 0.31” of rain fall.

[Hawkeye]

0.35" in my gauge this morning.  It's something, but not much.  The south models were correct.  Even last evening the GFS and a few other models were still too far north.

This would be an ok rain if it was the start of a wet pattern, but, once again, there is no more rain in sight.  There is a good chance September will be our driest month of the year.

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

72 and rain on the way. 
Season is making a nice turn.  

Rain Shield collapsed just as it got to me, but at least there is more coming later today.

 

The biggest part? Much cooler temperatures! I already forgot what the 100*F temperatures feels like.

[OttumwaSnomow]

11 hours ago, Tom said:

Nice rain falling in YBY....had a good feeling this event would deliver for you and E IA peeps...how about you @Hawkeye?

I ended up with .95 here.  Which is way more than was expected  for several days leading to the system.   We planted 60 fall wildlife  plots for hunters that were progressing  well early Aug and most died since!  But were able to plant rye and oats in many when the models became  more bullish, another big gamble that appears  to pay off. Not one single above avg precip month  since Feb.

[Iceresistance]

Rain!

[Clinton]

The day went as expected, I received .25 inches of rain which will not put much of a dent in my 12.5 inch rainfall depict for the year.  Currently sprinkles with a nice and cool temp of 68.

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Rain!

That's a nice good wall of water headed east on radar. Looking forward to it! Definitely an autumn feeling day today.

[Andie]

We have scattered showers out there now. More one the way.  
Mid to low 80’s.   

[james1976]

Signs of fall! Some leaves have fallen. Low 60s this evening. Took the dog for a walk. Lot of ppl out enjoying the cool weather.