November 2023 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

38 minutes ago, Tom said:

For reference when we start tracking Winter storms...

Discussed elsewhere that the offices/Mets still have lee-way to adjust as they see fit when deciding on headlines (tho the advent of headline coordination calls most likely drives 99% of decisions these days). The annoying thing with GRR was that they would apply that same 8" or WWA threshold to its non-LES counties such as Calhoun and Jackson, when there were many many times (even by the new 7" threshold) we should have had a Warning not a WWA. 

[hawkstwelve]

Past couple GFS runs have completely done away with the idea of a strong storm or two next week. Lame.

[GDR]

Give it a week or two!

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

For reference when we start tracking Winter storms...

In my opinion 8" for a "winter storm" is a good call for our area. But don't get me wrong 5 to 7" with high winds can be a major issue and how about "ice storms" is there going to be a different criteria for that event? 

Can anyone post the NWS letter on this I can only find what several news outlets have posted. But I will keep looking. 

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure it does for ALL of SMI tho. I am sure they crunched the numbers on this,

I agree there are parts of SE Michigan were even 5" is a major "storm" but it will break down the idea of a "storm" vs a winter snow fall that's for sure. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro went the way of the GFS and kind of neutered the system(s) next week. Boooooo.

[Timmy Supercell]

I like these bigger diurnal changes in temperature, went from 29 to 64 in Ashland today! 

[bud2380]

The 18z GFS is back to showing some snowfall around the 21st.  It's been showing this for several runs sans the 12z run today.  Something to continue to watch anyways.

 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS looks good for the SE but not for the areas of drought in the Midwest, or even the SW for that matter. Just kind of a lame duck pattern. Every storm just breaks up over the Midwest/High Plains and leaves almost nothing in it's wake.

Still time for things to turn back to a big storm solution though. So cross the fingers. 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/40 there was no rain or snow. There were 16 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the W. There was 100% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 48/33 the record high of 68 was set in 1902 the record low of 13 was set in 1969. The wettest was 1.41” in 1957 the most snow fall of 4.5” was in 1974 the most on the ground was 4” in 1959. Last year the H/L was 39/29.

Weather History.

1908: Heavy snow falls across western Lower Michigan with a total of 16 inches at Muskegon, a record total for any November day.

On November 14, 1986, the mercury fell to a record low in Flint of 12 degrees for two days in a row (the 13th and 14th).

[chescowxman]

We are running at over 1 degree chillier than normal so far here in November and a colder than normal pattern looks increasingly likely to continue for most of the rest of November. After starting 2023 with 4 straight above normal months - this will mark 4 of the last 7 months to feature below normal temperatures across our area. Today will turn increasingly windy by late this morning and temps will struggle to escape the 40's across the higher spots in the county. A very brief warming trend for both Thursday and Friday before the cold air returns on Friday night. We really need some rain...unfortunately while there is a chance of some rain by Friday night I am not optimistic.

Records for today: High 74 (1955) / Low 14 (1920) / Rain 1.58" (1972) / Snow 5.0" (1908)

[Timmy Supercell]

A chilly 27 this morning! Some outlying freezing fog reported, not much in downtown though. We haven't had a thick fog in some days. 

[Tom]

I'd Trust the Euro in this pattern as the blocking is slowing down this storm off the west coast and then as it eventually tracks out of the 4 corners into the Plains.  All the models are slowing the progression and I think today we will see some agreement.  The EPS has not back off on widespread precip for KS/MO and the S Plains region up thru S MW/OHV.  IMHO, this has a  classic TX Panhadle/Arklatex Storm in the works.  Let's see if it can incorporate more colder air, if not this cycle, the next one will be interesting.  I'm sure any precip is welcomed but if your looking for Snow...well, need not worry as there will be another more interesting opportunity for the weekend after Thanksgiving!  #LetitSnow

 

[Clinton]

Might be the last week of above normal temps for awhile,  Christmas lights will be going up.

[jaster220]

Found this while investigating the N Canton CoCoRahs site. I was hoping they recorded temps in order to confirm that mby is a bit chillier than DTW on radiational cooling mornings. They did note our 2nd frosty morning, but apparently they are only focused on precipitation. While November has begun dry, we're slightly AN for 2023.

This is via NOAA. Via PRISM, we are slightly less YTD. Not very familiar with the PRISM data set tbh. I think it's radar based.

 

[Niko]

Can this weather please continue into early December. It is beautiful. I don't want any treacherous weather during the big holiday travel. Afterwards, I do. Let it snow, let it snow and let it snow.

Note: if anyone is interesting, My NY apartment is on the market.  I am selling it for $200,000.(Preferred all cash only). Its near the L.I.R.R. Literally, 5 min walk and lots of stores around, great pizza restaurant nearby, supermarket, gym spot and more. I do have a couple of buyers ready, so hurry up and don't delay.

 

Location: Great Neck Area

 

Description: 1bathroom, mini kitchen, 1 bedroom, open space for a living room set and small balcony.

[Niko]

Am I seeing SMI get clipped there w/ the White Gold??!! ???!!!! Whaaaa!!!!!

[Iceresistance]

Snow a week after Thanksgiving?

 

[Andie]

Woah!!

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Snow by Thanksgiving?

 

That's after thanksgiving and 300 hours out.   So, probably no...

[Tom]

The storm early next week looks like a classic Arklatex Low in the works...I like the trends today as nearly every operational model is NOW seeing it...See it to Believe it!  

[tStacsh]

I will take the canadian that would dump feet of LES in Michigan though....Seems to be a normal occurrence in November lately.

 

[Iceresistance]

14 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

That's after thanksgiving and 300 hours out.   So, probably no...

Good catch

[Tom]

You guys out East should be ready for a pretty Nice start to winter like we haven't seen in a number of years....Forget about a warm start to Met Winter, this is going to be a classic example of the main atmospheric drivers taking over.  The MJO especially is one of the main drivers and unlike years past, when the other teleconnections weren't playing ball, it appears this season most will play ball in tandom.  Synergy!

Euro Extended...nice rotation thru 7/8/1/2

 

 

 

JMA...

[tStacsh]

23 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Good catch

I hope it comes true though!

[Up_north_MI]

21 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I hope it comes true though!

Me too, would be nice to get everything including the inland lakes to freeze up earlier then last year here in the MI. Our lake, Higgins, didn’t lock up until early February last winter which is over a month later then normal and the latest I’ve seen in over 20 years. 

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, Up_north_MI said:

Me too, would be nice to get everything including the inland lakes to freeze up earlier then last year here in the MI. Our lake, Higgins, didn’t lock up until early February last winter which is over a month later then normal and the latest I’ve seen in over 20 years. 

Somewhere in that lake is my Dad's wedding ring from 1973

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

Can this weather please continue into early December. It is beautiful. I don't want any treacherous weather during the big holiday travel. Afterwards, I do. Let it snow, let it snow and let it snow.

Note: if anyone is interesting, My NY apartment is on the market.  I am selling it for $200,000.(Preferred all cash only). Its near the L.I.R.R. Literally, 5 min walk and lots of stores around, great pizza restaurant nearby, supermarket, gym spot and more. I do have a couple of buyers ready, so hurry up and don't delay.

 

Location: Great Neck Area

 

Description: 1bathroom, mini kitchen, 1 bedroom, open space for a living room set and small balcony.

@Niko There you are amigo! Yeah, these days are "choice". AA, one of the colder airport sites around the west side of the region rebounded 31F today. That's pretty wild swing for The Lakes. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I hope it comes true though!

Sad that every model seems tweaked to maximize any potential to the point it's beyond real leaving only one direction to go - downward. I've lived my entire life in The Mitt and a storm that dynamic is rare in the winter months let alone November, as in 1st storm of a season. The ONLY challenger to it would be 11-16-89. There was a small region in the tip of the Mitt that got 2 feet from that. 34 years ago this week. Where my clan was rifle hunting near Hubbard Lk we had a solid 10-12" (crazy winds so it was hard to pin down amounts). Ofc, there was the infamous Nov 2014 LES that was confined to the snow belts like GR and west, but wasn't a true SLP storm, just massive arctic air dump over mild Lake Michigan. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

You guys out East should be ready for a pretty Nice start to winter like we haven't seen in a number of years....Forget about a warm start to Met Winter, this is going to be a classic example of the main atmospheric drivers taking over.  The MJO especially is one of the main drivers and unlike years past, when the other teleconnections weren't playing ball, it appears this season most will play ball in tandom.  Synergy!

Euro Extended...nice rotation thru 7/8/1/2

 

 

 

JMA...

Did I mention this could come outta the gate fast-n-furious? I think I did, lol. Certainly looks by your post here that we may well be heading that way. Certainly a couple of the analog winters featured such. Dec '72, Dec '09, Nov '14 all featured cold shots and/or big snows. Have to mention '02 (also an analog) which was the year I had moved to Marshall. The annual holiday season parade is the Monday after Thanksgiving and I was participating in a float. We had 5" of snow and 15F that evening - talk about "setting the mood"!  It gets even better, a month later we had that un-forecasted storm drop 8" on Christmas Eve. JB had a blog on AccuWx back then and it was my first exposure to "wx on the web" before finding Wx forums. He was the only one saying that the storm would track further north. All other outlets kept snow well south of MI. He nailed it. 

[Niko]

50 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko There you are amigo! Yeah, these days are "choice". AA, one of the colder airport sites around the west side of the region rebounded 31F today. That's pretty wild swing for The Lakes. 

I have noticed this autumn that a lot of our area has been experiencing some real chilly nights (20s and 30s).  It has been the common theme. Bud, I have a gut feeling that, perhaps, this winter could be a colder one than what its being predicted. We will see and time will tell, but dang, thank god I winterized my sprinklers back in October.

[Niko]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

I will take the canadian that would dump feet of LES in Michigan though....Seems to be a normal occurrence in November lately.

 

Man, that is a lot of wind blowing in my area.

[Niko]

So far, November has been quiet and that is how I like it. As the say goes, save the best for later. A quiet November= an active winter?? Who knows?? Anyway, this could be a sign that things could get very active by late November and into December. Hoping that is the case, especially in the month of December and into mid January. This is my favorite time of the year to get arctic airmasses and big snows as everything is at its lowest point, i.e., lowest average high and low, nighttime hours are at the longest, lowest sun angle and etc. Coldest period! After that, it is just an upward trend and heading for spring, eventually. Although it can still be fun snowise.

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS flipped back to a snowier solution for next weekend. It blankets most of the northern tier of the US with some decent snow. This is mainly due to a big shift westward of the ridge of high pressure back into the GOA, which allows much more energy to phase and precip to work into the system as it moves inland off the Pacific. This more closely resembles the look of the better model runs a few days ago. 

Question now becomes was it just a blip or was it the start of a trend? 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS is looking like it's going to be good. Much closer to the 18z when compared to last night's 00z run. 

Edit: Ends up working out for Missouri folks. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty large difference in the upstream block since yesterday's 18z run. I'd much rather take my chances in a pattern like this than what it was showing before. 

[hawkstwelve]

The 18z GEFS 850mb temps chart shows the two camps of solutions pretty distinctly around Thanksgiving. One warmer, presumably with the ridge anchored right over the west coast, and one colder, with the ridge anchored over the GOA/AK. 

Which camp will win? 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

Man, that is a lot of wind blowing in my area.

Yep, we'd get a wind-storm of flurries most likely here in Detroit. I just noticed it shows a 979 mb SLP over James Bay up in Canada. For comparison, the Nov '89 storm was over James Bay at 964 mb. I missed the Octo-bomb storm in 2010 due to working in TX back then but I believe the winds on that were similar to '89. Wish I could find data on winds, it would make an interesting study. 

[hawkstwelve]

MJO phases 1, 2, and 8 all tend to correspond with an AK ridge. Might lend itself to one camp over the other. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z CMC also shifted the ridge westward.

The details will work themselves out over time but these are encouraging signs in the overall pattern.