November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

Getting some positive windshield splats at times. First of the season.

[Phishy Wx]

for liquid equivalent amounts, per NWS Spokane

 

 Impressive

 

From a precipitation standpoint the forecast totals over the next
7 days look truly impressive. Ensemble data is showing amounts in
the Cascades ranging from 4-6 at the Crest (with even more west
of the Crest). For north Idaho totals will range from 2-3 and
Spokane/CdA will see anywhere from 1.5-2. These amounts are
anywhere from 70-100% of the normal totals for the entire month of
December

[Phishy Wx]

too bad it can't all be snow, but should knock the friggin drought out

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wut.

Where was I wrong?

2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

I have been waiting for 805's take on this years El Nino and he just put out a very nice post. Would love to hear Phil's take on this since it is similar to what he has been saying. 

 

 

I’m not worried about CA at all. Then again I’ve been missing a lot of subseasonal forecasts lately so take that FWIW.

[Phishy Wx]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Getting some positive windshield splats at times. First of the season.

why so sad?

[Phil]

Nice Scandinavia ridge pattern on the LR 12z EPS. Need more Aleutian/Okhotsk Sea troughing to maximize pressure on the PV/NAM, though.

In a Niña winter this actually might be enough to finish the job (w/rt getting arctic air into SW-Canada/PNW) , but probably not this year. MJO (unfiltered from LP) is already back in El Niño type state by D15, which is the date this image is valid on.

Also that Beaufort Sea TPV is a top failure mode for meridional transport of arctic air into SW Canada.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like EUG was a poor representation of this part of the metro area as we did not get as consistently as cold as they did. Lower 20s for them, upper 20s for here.

You know I love you, but this deserves a weenie tag.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some of the models hinting at some decent troughing about a week out. SCORE!

[icyasf]

Looks like it is snowing west of Banks

[Snownerd3000]

45 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Most models trending towards this look mid month. 

 

Just in time for Santa

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, icyasf said:

Looks like it is snowing west of Banks

SCORE

[Phil]

Interesting split in the LR GEFS. Roughly 1/3rd of the members take the SPV to very strong territory (2015-like structure).

Un-coincidentally, those are also the members projecting the stronger -WPO/Aleutian Ridge and equatorward EP flux D10-15. While that 500mb pattern looks better on paper, the long term outcome would be worse.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Just in time for Santa

These could be famous last words, but I'm actually feeling fairly optimistic about December overall and even the first half of January. I'm not necessarily writing off the rest of the winter after that, but I think it is likely we see milder conditions by February, though I am hoping we see some cold troughing in March/April, we even saw that in April 2015. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

46 at Eugene, but that warm air hasn't made it to Corvallis or Salem yet. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These could be famous last words, but I'm actually feeling fairly optimistic about December overall and even the first half of January. I'm not necessarily writing off the rest of the winter after that, but I think it is likely we see milder conditions by February, though I am hoping we see some cold troughing in March/April, we even saw that in April 2015. 

Andrew officially joins Jim & Jesse on team BIG WINTER. ️ 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

Andrew officially joins Jim & Jesse on team BIG WINTER. ️ 

Jesse is onboard? I just said the other day I think there is an 80% of absolutely ZILCH in the lowlands this winter. But I'm not ready to write it off. At least hoping I can get a little something something at elevation. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Frontal Snowsquall]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Poor TWL.

 

3 hours ago, LowerGarfield said:

I'm sure he'll be fine with the rain coming up. Not often you see all of California in no drought or abnormally dry in November when most of that was because of the previous winter.

Help is on the way.   will be blessing Tiger and the rest of us.

[MossMan]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These could be famous last words, but I'm actually feeling fairly optimistic about December overall and even the first half of January. I'm not necessarily writing off the rest of the winter after that, but I think it is likely we see milder conditions by February, though I am hoping we see some cold troughing in March/April, we even saw that in April 2015. 

Would sure be something if we could get 3 great December events in a row!! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Andrew officially joins Jim & Jesse on team BIG WINTER. ️ 

Gonna be good one from Salem north.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

 

Help is on the way.   will be blessing Tiger and the rest of us.

I'm lowkey allergic to pineapple but I do enjoy a notable atmospheric river.

[icyasf]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna be good one from Salem north.

I still have hope . This was December two years ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Gonna be good one from Salem north.

I just checked. I know my address is SE which means I am SE of the main post office in Marion County which is located in downtown Salem. I also just checked and the Salem airport (SLE) is at 44.912N and I am just a hair south at 44.910N. What I am saying is that I am screwed.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Looks like Brian is finally seeing some flakes! 

 

Wasn't expecting to see snow this morning, Friday is supposed to be a snow day.  It was only about an inch but was nice to drive around in.

Expecting several inches Friday and Friday night, and we'll see when it turns to rain.  All the tourists in town for the weekend, especially Saturday, will be disappointed if its pouring down rain.  Then I go to Europe for 10 days and maybe we'll have snow back by then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Wasn't expecting to see snow this morning, Friday is supposed to be a snow day.  It was only about an inch but was nice to drive around in.

Expecting several inches Friday and Friday night, and we'll see when it turns to rain.  All the tourists in town for the weekend, especially Saturday, will be disappointed if its pouring down rain.  Then I go to Europe for 10 days and maybe we'll have snow back by then.

Have fun and stay safe in Europe. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, icyasf said:

I still have hope . This was December two years ago.

Late Dec 2021 was fun. Boxing Day event and 3 straight overnight snowfalls.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I just checked. I know my address is SE which means I am SE of the main post office in Marion County which is located in downtown Salem. I also just checked and the Salem airport (SLE) is at 44.912N and I am just a hair south at 44.910N. What I am saying is that I am screwed.

Y'all are in the northern portion of the east valley/Cascade foothill warm urology finger. We get the initial insertion here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Wasn't expecting to see snow this morning, Friday is supposed to be a snow day.  It was only about an inch but was nice to drive around in.

Expecting several inches Friday and Friday night, and we'll see when it turns to rain.  All the tourists in town for the weekend, especially Saturday, will be disappointed if its pouring down rain.  Then I go to Europe for 10 days and maybe we'll have snow back by then.

Still meaning to visit there when a snow event is expected. Y'all seem like one of the best places in the PNW for snow.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have fun and stay safe in Europe. 

Thanks! Yeah a bit different this year.  Not too worried but will need to always be aware.  Going to Christmas Markets and they are definitely a potential target.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we will finally break 100 pages by the end of Nov. Whew.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Thanks! Yeah a bit different this year.  Not too worried but will need to always be aware.  Going to Christmas Markets and they are definitely a potential target.

Keep your wallet in your front pocket.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Y'all are in the northern portion of the east valley/Cascade foothill warm urology finger. We get the initial insertion here.

Yeah, it's pretty wild how the best setup for snow at PDX is not a good setup for snow here. On the other hand we have many more cold onshore flow type events than overrunning events. If it's a system coming down from the northwest with weak onshore flow it almost can act as an overrunning event. At face value there should have at least been a period of rain here with the February 26th event, but instead the we stayed snow the whole time and scored 11.6". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we will finally break 100 pages by the end of Nov. Whew.

It's been a decent November. Not as good as last November, but at least some variety. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's pretty wild how the best setup for snow at PDX is not a good setup for snow here. On the other hand we have many more cold onshore flow type events than overrunning events. If it's a system coming down from the northwest with weak onshore flow it almost can act as an overrunning event. At face value there should have at least been a period of rain here with the February 26th event, but instead the we stayed snow the whole time and scored 11.6". 

The best is a coupled Arctic airmass with deep upper level support then stalling out with a low coming onshore about Gold Beach then very slowly tracking towards Chemult or so. That generally brings us a foot or so like 2-25-19.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

The best is a coupled Arctic airmass with deep upper level support then stalling out with a low coming onshore about Gold Beach then very slowly tracking towards Chemult or so. That generally brings us a foot or so like 2-25-19.

I don't know that I would call that an arctic boundary though... Definitely cold air on the north side and east of the Cascades. 

[iFred]

Feels like snow outside.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

50 minutes ago, icyasf said:

Looks like it is snowing west of Banks

 

45 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SCORE

A couple of degrees colder and there would be good accumulations over there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Let's see if we can get to 50F before dinner. 46F now. Roseburg is getting close to 50F as are the south coast areas.

[Deweydog]

16 years ago RIGHT NOW!!!

Hard to believe that given this pattern, two days later the coast was getting hit by probably one of the strongest barrier jets on record.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 37 now at Salem, but Corvallis is up to 45. 

[Phishy Wx]

right back to Nina next year?