Hoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, Tom said: Ya, the Operational models definitely backed off the Arctic connection in recent runs but the GEFS continue to show a number of good hits and trends are (+).... That's the unfortunate thing... less cold air to work with now, which would also reduce the lake contribution to snow amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's the unfortunate thing... less cold air to work with now, which would also reduce the lake contribution to snow amounts. The lake warm waters could also be concerning with the lack of true artic air. Places close to the lake could see more rain than snow I would think in this setup unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z vs 06z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Gfs says what storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Sorry for my ignorance, but is the one on the right the most current? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Just now, uticasnow said: Sorry for my ignorance, but is the one on the right the most current? The left pic... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 That gfs run was garage. More interested in the ensembles..may still be ok run for lakes though 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Just now, uticasnow said: Sorry for my ignorance, but is the one on the right the most current? Side-by-side comparisons, at least ones that I post, will always have the newest run on the left. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z vs 00z CMC... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 CMC still has it 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Side-by-side comparisons, at least ones that I post, will always have the newest run on the left. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Usually the day 6/7 gfs has issues and gets better. Hopefully this is the case 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 GFS and CMC snowfall comparisons with previous runs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 The last 10 runs off the GFS Op...3 days ago it had the arctic connection, then the medium range "Mayhem", but the recent run is trying to go back to the original idea of a deep low with a Polar connection later in the run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, jcwxguy said: Usually the day 6/7 gfs has issues and gets better. Hopefully this is the case This is so true. For whatever reason, we are now right at the timeframe where the GFS usually does a huge pullback and makes everyone say "winter cancel" only to revert back within a few model cycles and show what it had been showing just 24-48 hours earlier. I'd be curious to know what causes that fakeout. Doesn't happen every time but it happens enough where it's noticeable. Heck, it even happened with the Christmas storm just a week or so ago. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z GFS with the next system just a couple days later... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 If I didn't know any better I'd say the GFS saw my red circle area from earlier and said "not so fast". Maybe other folks should start drawing red circles and it'll listen to them too. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Latest NBM pared back totals pretty much across the board when compared to its previous run but especially within the area circled in red. Latest run cut totals in half within that area. North of the red area should be able to score some snow with the defo band from the initial low on Friday and below that area will get to work with the larger system on the 9th. Unfortunately, SE SD and into N IA look to be between the various systems and chances are looking increasingly less likely for any meaningful snowfall, barring big swings in the models down the home stretch. Hopefully the storm train will continue and that area can get filled in a bit more. As it stands now, these are the exact same spots that have found a way to get screwed so far this season so I'm not really holding my breath. At least part of that area has been in an extreme drought since early summer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 52 minutes ago, Tony said: The lake warm waters could also be concerning with the lack of true artic air. Places close to the lake could see more rain than snow I would think in this setup unfortunately. That's definitely a concern, at least early on because of the marginal antecedent airmass. I would think with a GFS/Euro type track/solution that the dynamics would be able to overcome and flip the lakeshore to snow. Lake temps are currently closer to 40 than 50... the latter would be a big problem (think what happened lakeside in the 11/21/2015 storm). Really have to get the track nailed down first though because a farther north track like the GEM would introduce ptype concerns in much of Chicago metro irrespective of the lake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 14 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said: I know everyone's focused on the upcoming snow chances. But I've also been watching forecasts for really cold air to finally make its way down here. Based on the 500mb pattern/blocking, it looks like some really cold stuff should be moving down. Greenland block and Alaskan ridge. But the GFS has been trending away from really cold stuff coming down. It's basically just seasonal temps. Anyone have any thoughts on why that is? A lot of times I like to look for a "bridge" between AK and the Greenland block. The GFS does this by the end with the cold starting to sink south. In this case that little cut off off the coast might be holding heights up along the western axis...if it merges with the main low pressure it might help pull some cold south by the runs end. Perhaps anyway lol Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, tStacsh said: Man the runs and ensembles have been so consistent. I still won't look again until thursday lol Don't worry there is still a lot that can go wrong. It will either be to the north or south of us, but you know how that goes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z GFS gives some hope up this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, Madtown said: 12z GFS gives some hope up this way GFS was a little weird. Almost like a subsidence zone in between, leading to that depiction of a gap in amounts in parts of WI, IL, etc 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 FWIW the CMC has been pretty steady on a north solution. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 Fired up a thread for the main low ONLY, discussion of any other shortwaves or clippers around the same time will stay in here 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 That's so GFS to have runs saying one area is going to get hammered, only to completely invert the areas going to get snow. Only to come back once again where the storm is nothing and everyone loses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 2nd system next week on the 12z Euro is looking better for my area and Iowa folks... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Ok, what's going on? First the GFS and now the Euro is filling in my red circle area from earlier better than any previous run. That's some serious red circle power right there! At least for now... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: 2nd system next week on the 12z Euro is looking better for my area and Iowa folks... Has the looks of a clipper, I'd expect that to trend north. Definitely worth watching, I wouldn't mind you cashing in from that. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Roughly 30% of EPS members keep Sioux Falls under 2 inches all next week. 18% show 5+ inches. The remaining 52% are somewhere in-between. GEFS shows 33% under 2 inches, 43% at 5+ inches, 24% are somewhere in-between. GEPS shows 15% under 2 inches, 40% are 5+ inches, and 45% are in-between. What those percentages tell me is things are still very much up in the air but in general, at this point in time, a good bet would land me in the 'in-between' category. Although I'd say there is still a high boom/bust potential. Honestly, as long as I can get more than inch, I'm going to call it a win given how this season has gone so far. Here's some percentages for a couple other spots. I counted these by hand so they are rough numbers but should be a fairly close representation of where things sit at the moment. Percentages are under 2 inches/5+/in-between and are good for totals through the evening on 1/14. Should be interesting to see how these numbers move over the next 2-3 days... Omaha EPS: 32%/30%/38% GEFS: 40%/57%/3% GEPS: 10%/85%/5% Kansas City EPS: 20%/50%/30% GEFS: 40%/30%/30% GEPS: 15%/70%/15% Des Moines EPS: 30%/40%/30% GEFS: 30%/53%/17% GEPS: 0%/80%/20% 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 18z GFS with a parade of storms over the next two weeks that just continue to dump snow on a large section of the central US. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 18z GFS with a parade of storms over the next two weeks that just continue to dump snow on a large section of the central US. Man that would do wonders for a lot of us on here!! Come on! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Had to do a double take on that system after 300 hours. 964 mb in WI... wow. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Very active pattern we are getting into. Finally. And I think some of us will make up for the slow start. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 LOCK. IT. IN! 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 3 Author Report Share Posted January 3 EPS has some rather bombastic runs re: the storm in 2 weeks, as well. And a couple of members have it as a nor'easter ... And most members have no storm at all. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 0z GFS with another storm on the heels of next week's big one. Might be good for folks up north. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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