January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

Let's be real: December was terrible for much of the Sub, while those in Nebraska did manage to score a white Christmas. Pretty bizarre. Nebraska had a white Christmas but MQT didn't.

Looking to next month, ensembles are signalling something that we haven't seen all year: A pattern change to cooler. I've also been saying that we'll be entering a clipper pattern for a while now, and that still looks to be the case.

 

One thing that I can pretty safely say is that I am not a fan at all of snow protections across MN, and this is one of the few things that ensembles, aside from an outlier or two, have been consistent on.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

Let's be real: December was terrible for much of the Sub, while those in Nebraska did manage to score a white Christmas. Pretty bizarre. Nebraska had a white Christmas but MQT didn't.

Looking to next month, ensembles are signalling something that we haven't seen all year: A pattern change to cooler. I've also been saying that we'll be entering a clipper pattern for a while now, and that still looks to be the case.

 

One thing that I can pretty safely say is that I am not a fan at all of snow protections across MN, and this is one of the few things that ensembles, aside from an outlier or two, have been consistent on.

Right on Cue, Barney showing up on the models post 4th lurking across the U.S./Canadian border...its coming down this time!  High Lat Blocking and a little -EPO will do the trick...

0z EPS showing it best...

[Black Hole]

Here is my wishcast of the day model. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Black Hole said:

Here is my wishcast of the day model. 

This storm has my attn for a couple important reasons...

#1) My dad fly's out of PHX to ORD
#2) It will be a Legit Winter storm to track for the S Plains up into GL's/OHV region

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

This storm has my attn for a couple important reasons...

#1) My dad fly's out of PHX to ORD
#2) It will be a Legit Winter storm to track for the S Plains up into GL's/OHV region

 

It certainly was fun to see that in the guidance this morning, but for now it remains an outlier solution in several respects. Looking at the ensemble mean the issue in my mind is that the trough is just too broad. This pattern would be dry and cold for most of the Plains. The lack of a southeast ridge in the mean suggests shortwave troughs would eject east rather than slow and pivot northeast.  This could still allow for minor snowfalls of course, especially in the southeast. I mean it doesn't need to be much, we just need to slow that flow down a teeny bit to give storms and moisture time to do their thing  

 

[Black Hole]

Guidance is consistent with what I said, mostly showing light snowfalls down this way. I'll take what I can get of course and the majority are at least showing something. 

[Black Hole]

One last thing to expand upon. Here is an example of what I am talking about from the SPIRE model rather than the mean. No doubt a widespread cold pattern but what you will get here are digging clippers through the middle of the country. These have no time and limited moisture to really do much for most of us, leading to minor accumulations. 

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

 

It certainly was fun to see that in the guidance this morning, but for now it remains an outlier solution in several respects. Looking at the ensemble mean the issue in my mind is that the trough is just too broad. This pattern would be dry and cold for most of the Plains. The lack of a southeast ridge in the mean suggests shortwave troughs would eject east rather than slow and pivot northeast.  This could still allow for minor snowfalls of course, especially in the southeast. I mean it doesn't need to be much, we just need to slow that flow down a teeny bit to give storms and moisture time to do their thing  

 

IMHO, the EPS is notorious for holding to big of a trough out West.  This period will be a better outcome for a larger scale winter storm.  I think many on here will welcome this opportunity and pattern change!

[tStacsh]

While it will get colder into January of course, are we at the point now where the models show extreme cold only to moderate as we get closer to the week or so out events?   I'm not buying any extreme cold this winter outside of glancing shots.  But I suspect "normal" winter will settle in around a week.    I think fast hitting clippers are the way to go for the GL's  region.  

However, I still believe we will see some decent snowstorms over the southern parts of the midwest/southeast and into the Northeast.  

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

While it will get colder into January of course, are we at the point now where the models show extreme cold only to moderate as we get closer to the week or so out events?   I'm not buying any extreme cold this winter outside of glancing shots.  But I suspect "normal" winter will settle in around a week.    I think fast hitting clippers are the way to go for the GL's  region.  

However, I still believe we will see some decent snowstorms over the southern parts of the midwest/southeast and into the Northeast.  

It’ll really depend on how deep the -NAO goes…some models suggest a stout west-based Greenland Block.  That’s a golden blocking pattern for the GL’s/MW.

[Black Hole]

38 minutes ago, Tom said:

IMHO, the EPS is notorious for holding to big of a trough out West.  This period will be a better outcome for a larger scale winter storm.  I think many on here will welcome this opportunity and pattern change!

I guess we will see, obviously some details are still far from known. Plus, it's anybody's guess what happens the 2nd half of January into February. 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

This storm has my attn for a couple important reasons...

#1) My dad fly's out of PHX to ORD
#2) It will be a Legit Winter storm to track for the S Plains up into GL's/OHV region

This is one of the signature storms of this year pattern.  I'm excited about this and hope it produces biggly!

[Niko]

I have a strong gut feeling that January will be rockin for a lot of our sub-forum members. It looks to be on the colder side as well, so that is good news. As for my area, its not brutal, but definitely colder than December and some decent snow chances. Right now, going down the pipe a little deeper, (March) looks darn right cold and snowy. Typical nino pattern.

[Hoosier]

Some signal for some lake effect snow somewhere around the southern end of Lake Michigan as we open the new year.  Could include the IL shore but yet to be determined.  Ingredients at this time look pretty modest overall, but basically any snow flying at all is a story given how snowless it has been lately in Chicago/nw Indiana.

[mlgamer]

Here we go @Clinton. Midnight January 10th right on schedule. GFS knows something...lol

 

[Black Hole]

GFS in the long range pumped up some eastern ridging instead of a coast-to-coast trough allowing this beauty to spin up. That is the main thing I am hoping to see more model guidance show as it will really open up some possibilities! 

 

[Clinton]

52 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Here we go @Clinton. Midnight January 10th right on schedule. GFS knows something...lol

 

We better cash in on that one.  Later in the month Gary has temps pushing 60 in KC a couple days.

[Tom]

The CPC came out with a better looking Week 1 & 2 forecast, one that we have not seen all Winter long thus far...

My thoughts are that we see a better overall "Winter pattern" post 4th/5th....that Jan 7-10th storm has my attn...could it be a preview for this month?  If the PNA stays neutral or even slightly (-) and the -NAO/-AO both play ball...its game time!

 

 

[Hoosier]

Regarding the storm around the 10th

Although I might be accused of it, I did not run the 18z GFS from my basement.  

[james1976]

Quite the storm parade for southern Canada on the GFS.

[OKwx2k4]

6 hours ago, Black Hole said:

GFS in the long range pumped up some eastern ridging instead of a coast-to-coast trough allowing this beauty to spin up. That is the main thing I am hoping to see more model guidance show as it will really open up some possibilities! 

 

Oh my. I don't have to add anything to this other than that's where I've expected this pattern to go. Just getting the right amount of suppression will be key. 

[Black Hole]

@OKwx2k4 it got even better on the 18z run. I'm going to print this one off and hang it on the wall because there is no topping this

 

[Black Hole]

Lots of fun crazy model runs today. 

[KTPmidMO]

15 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

@OKwx2k4 it got even better on the 18z run. I'm going to print this one off and hang it on the wall because there is no topping this

 

 

I would take half that in a heartbeat! Yes please I hope this track pans out! Lol

[tStacsh]

Here we go, the long range supports cold, only to come back to the same old split flow El Nino pattern that is dominating the weather pattern.   Gonna take a lot to change it.   Highs went from near to below average next week, and already back to above normal and above freezing.   January starts out on the "warmer" side here in Michigan.  WIth no real threat of accumulating snow for the next week.  

[Black Hole]

I still like the pattern we settle into the first 1/3 of January. 

[Niko]

My highs are already back up into the 40s next week. Several days ago, they were in the mid 30s (which is still above average). NO SNOW IN SIGHT!!!!! Hopefully, that will change.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

There was a ton of optimism in twitterverse over the last week about a SSW event in early January.  Seems like overnight, all of that optimism evaporated.  We don't need a true SSW event to get cold and snow.  But I'm kind of bummed the polar vortex talk is turning very pessimistic.  

TBH, I wasn’t paying attention to it that much this season.  Once I see that it is ongoing and the models are locked in on the positioning where the SSW event is going to blossom, then it becomes increasingly interesting.  I’ve more or less relied on the LRC and MJO forecasts.  I don’t like seeing the recent trends towards a warm Phase 3 as we enter JAN.  

[MIKEKC]

Snowed for 24-30 hours in KC Tuesday through 9am yesterday, we totaled maybe 3/4 of an inch on the grass. (temps stayed around 32-34 the whole time) Total of .39 inches of moisture giving me 3.59 inches of moisture in the month of DEC. We were in a drought DEC. 1st, not too sure we can call it that now. 3.59 inches of moisture in DEC. and 3/4 of an inch of snow is all we got!! Dang it, missing the cold to go with these wet systems. We did have the late NOV. snowstorm that dropped 2-3 inches in KC. That was nice...

We'll see how January plays out. So far, looking a lot like last winter, VERY WET and VERY WARM. BUT, never give up, maybe JAN. and FEB. will be plentiful with snow. 

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Here we go, the long range supports cold, only to come back to the same old split flow El Nino pattern that is dominating the weather pattern.   Gonna take a lot to change it.   Highs went from near to below average next week, and already back to above normal and above freezing.   January starts out on the "warmer" side here in Michigan.  WIth no real threat of accumulating snow for the next week.  

This is crazy..went from low 20's to 30's up here. Gfs  is even warmer.

SSW canceled, MJO sucks and El Nino. This winter is fully cooked. 

Businesses are way down, some just staying closed till trails open. This is gonna hurt. 2 to 3 weeks away from snowmobiles. Swamps are all water no frost in the ground. Lakes have opened up. Friends that have been here 40 50 plus years haven't seen it like this.

 

For your enjoyment 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=pfbid026hxzudEKUv6Fsjqf8zHrYzBtRKW8dBMyTg8neHcz4vRj6PRa2nhCQPDg1Pd2GwKvl&id=512083783&mibextid=Nif5oz

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

There was a ton of optimism in twitterverse over the last week about a SSW event in early January.  Seems like overnight, all of that optimism evaporated.  We don't need a true SSW event to get cold and snow.  But I'm kind of bummed the polar vortex talk is turning very pessimistic.  

Arguable whether we even need a technical SSW anyway.  Sort of like the debate about whether this is a strong Nino or super Nino... kind of semantics.

[Madtown]

1 minute ago, sumweatherdude said:

Almost January, and look at Houghton, Michigan.  One of the snowiest places in the country. 

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/

 

it's nuts. Just talked with our chamber. while paying taxes. Multiple hotels had 100% cancelations for this week. unreal

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, Madtown said:

it's nuts. Just talked with our chamber. while paying taxes. Multiple hotels had 100% cancelations for this week. unreal

That is unbelievable. Most of Nebraska with a nice snowpack. I’m sure there aren’t many examples in history where this disparity has occurred. 

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

Almost January, and look at Houghton, Michigan.  One of the snowiest places in the country. 

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/

 

It's looking bleak.   Take away the last storm,  Even look at southern Canada.    Yikes.   

[Hoosier]

fwiw, op Euro is significantly colder than op GFS in extended.

[hawkstwelve]

Man, if we could extrapolate this another couple days I bet it would look pretty dang nice. 

[Grizzcoat]

56 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Man, if we could extrapolate this another couple days I bet it would look pretty dang nice. 

Here is the control 1.5 days later--

[james1976]

18z GFS has a good looking storm tracking through IA on the 9th-10th. Something definitely brewing in that time frame. I think we'll have some colder air to work with as well.

[Madtown]

Come on snow

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, Madtown said:

Come on snow

That’s insane. Things never bode well for all of us if you don’t have at least a little snow on the ground. Is this comparable to 2016 El Niño? How did you do then? We had one major blizzard at the end of January that year.