January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Fun to look at, long way out. 0z GFS with a massive storm in the Central Plains on Jan. 9-10 with more storminess following. 

[james1976]

Powerhouse on the 00Z GFS. That would make up for the lack of winter so far.

[hawkstwelve]

This is just such a refreshing map. I feel like its been way too freaking long since we've seen blue and green colors over Canada. It's been nothing but browns and reds for what feels like forever. 

No matter how the surface details play themselves out, I'm looking forward to this pattern shake up. It's going to be hard to be worse than what we just went through, so I'm pretty optimistic for at least something interesting around mid-January. 

[mlgamer]

Oh boy...GFS is already trolling me on the storm around Jan 7-10...00z misses me to the northwest and 06z misses me to the southeast with the heavy snow track. That's not playing nice...lol 

[gimmesnow]

Well at least the models are struggling with something. Sure beats telling us a torch for two weeks with a sudden shift. We've been dealing with that for the last 5 weeks.

[Tom]

Just now, sumweatherdude said:

Looks like a nice Spring morning.

That's what I was thinking when I saw this!   Sadly, this DEC Torch has really hit businesses hard up north.  The only real Winter conditions that the U.S. has seen is out west in the Rockies and PNW area...maybe the Sierra's...  

[Black Hole]

The latest GFS antics for my area. That's a blizzard if I ever saw one!

 

[Hoosier]

On 12/27/2023 at 11:10 AM, Hoosier said:

Some signal for some lake effect snow somewhere around the southern end of Lake Michigan as we open the new year.  Could include the IL shore but yet to be determined.  Ingredients at this time look pretty modest overall, but basically any snow flying at all is a story given how snowless it has been lately in Chicago/nw Indiana.

Bone thrown!

 

Precipitation type is expected to be all snow as temperatures
generally stay near or below freezing with plenty cold enough air
aloft (850 mb temps of -8 to -10C). An area of light snow with
embedded heavier snow showers due to the steepening lapse rate
regime should pivot southeast and then exit east by the evening,
with amounts up to a half inch to one inch or so. Slick spots may
occur on untreated road surfaces. As flow turns north-
northwesterly Sunday night, modest lake induced parameters but
good convergence and fetch should support a continuation of lake
effect snow showers (boosted PoPs to ~40%). Typically north-
northwest flow favors portions of Lake and Porter Counties and
locales just south, though a more northerly convergence
orientation could bring activity as far west as eastern Illinois,
including Chicago. Additional snow amounts from lake effect snow
New Year`s Eve night into the morning of New Year`s Day could be
up to 1-2", again with portions of Lake and Porter Counties most
favored. Keep this in mind if you will be out and about on the
roads.

[Tom]

East Asian Theory suggests not as much of a cutter...I do see a potential for this becoming a 2-part system with a lead front wave across the Upper MW and then a stronger second wave that SHOULD dig into the S Plains (Texarkana???).  The LRC could help us with this forecast as we've seen this scenario in previous cycles.  The PNA is not overwhelmingly (-) during this period so bonafide SER wouldn't cut this storm as much.  In any event, a more eventful period shaping up as Canada is going to fill up with some Brutal cold finally.  New Year, new pattern...I'm ready, HBU???

In reference to the above, we can see that there is a strong "lagging" trough over China and the northern energy that doesn't really phase.  With that being said, there is plenty of blocking setting up prior to this systems arrival that I see the second piece ending up digging and phasing.  Big Dog brewing???

[FV-Mike]

Long Range is looking better. I am just excited for the snow showers this Sunday!

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Bone thrown!

 

Precipitation type is expected to be all snow as temperatures
generally stay near or below freezing with plenty cold enough air
aloft (850 mb temps of -8 to -10C). An area of light snow with
embedded heavier snow showers due to the steepening lapse rate
regime should pivot southeast and then exit east by the evening,
with amounts up to a half inch to one inch or so. Slick spots may
occur on untreated road surfaces. As flow turns north-
northwesterly Sunday night, modest lake induced parameters but
good convergence and fetch should support a continuation of lake
effect snow showers (boosted PoPs to ~40%). Typically north-
northwest flow favors portions of Lake and Porter Counties and
locales just south, though a more northerly convergence
orientation could bring activity as far west as eastern Illinois,
including Chicago. Additional snow amounts from lake effect snow
New Year`s Eve night into the morning of New Year`s Day could be
up to 1-2", again with portions of Lake and Porter Counties most
favored. Keep this in mind if you will be out and about on the
roads.

Albeit slowly, but surely...the pattern is finally showing signs of changing as we close out DEC and open up JAN.  

[Tom]

1 minute ago, FV-Mike said:

Long Range is looking better. I am just excited for the snow showers this Sunday!

I would be feeling the same!  Hope you can score enough to whiten up the ground....I'm digging the colder trends across the GL's region during the 3rd/4th.  The Euro was the 1st model to show this and now the ICON/GGEM are lining up.

[Andie]

Early Spring day.  49*. Mild breeze.  
Is this the calm before the storm?  
It’s not winter here, yet.  

[james1976]

Arctic air is lurking on the long range GFS finally 

[Tom]

0z vs 12z GEFS...nice trends over the last 24 hours....big ticket storm is certainly brewing early the following week!

 

[Tom]

Using several LR forecasting methods, the week of the 14th, around MLK day, will be a period to watch as I see 2 potential big storms not that far off from each other...I think there will be a huge block up in S Canada and the 1st one could be a slower moving Low and then a bigger S Plains Monster up the OHV???  Is mother nature making up for lost time?  The switch appears like it wants to flip hard mid month. 

[OKwx2k4]

5 hours ago, Black Hole said:

The latest GFS antics for my area. That's a blizzard if I ever saw one!

 

The upcoming setup looks perfect for something big to roll through, so we shall see.  

Encouraging to say the least. Get the white stuff, no extreme cold following. Nice times, hopefully. Would be fun to see a massive blizzard. 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Using several LR forecasting methods, the week of the 14th, around MLK day, will be a period to watch as I see 2 potential big storms not that far off from each other...I think there will be a huge block up in S Canada and the 1st one could be a slower moving Low and then a bigger S Plains Monster up the OHV???  Is mother nature making up for lost time?  The switch appears like it wants to flip hard mid month. 

I have Jan 15-16 and Jan 20-22 as dates to watch in my earlier notes so I'd agree.

On another note....we've all been talking about Jan 7-10 for awhile. Here is a tidbit from today's (12/29) Topeka NWS afternoon AFD:

"The strongest signal for precipitation currently extends just beyond the end of the forecast period, in the Jan 8-10th period."

[Grizzcoat]

[james1976]

Some phasing on the 18z run. Long duration of backside snow and wind for the TC. 

[james1976]

OOZ GFS tonight with a full on powerhouse for 8th-10th. 974 Low in northeast Iowa.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS dumping almost 3 feet of snow over Sioux Falls.  

[james1976]

23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS dumping almost 3 feet of snow over Sioux Falls.  

Lock it in. Let's go!

[Minny_Weather]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z GFS dumping almost 3 feet of snow over Sioux Falls.  

Lol I love those types of runs.

[westMJim]

On average January is the coldest month of the year at Grand Rapids with a mean of 24.8° on average it is also the snowiest month with 22.6” and the average rain/meted snowfall is 2.52”. While on average January is the coldest month there have been many years where February has been colder and in 1960 and 1931 March was colder than January. There also have been many years where December or February have had more snowfall. The coldest January at Grand Rapids was in 1912 with a mean of 11.8° The warmest January on record is 34.2 in 1932. None of the top 10 coldest January’s happened in the last 23 years the last top ten was in 1994 with a mean of 14.5° Last year had the 5th warmest with a mean of 31.7.  2006 was the 3rd warmest with 33.2 and 2020 was the 7th warmest with 31.3° The most snowfall of 46.8” was in 1999. In the last 23 years 2004 is in 5th place with 44.2” and 2014 is in 7th place with 41.9” The lowest January snowfall of 0.8” was in 1933 the only January so far in the last 23 years in the top ten least snowy January’s was in 2001 with 4.1” good for 7th place. It is now time to see if the warmth and low snowfall totals continue into January 2024.

[hawkstwelve]

00z EPS showing growing agreement on a drop in 850mb temps starting around the 9th. Unfortunately from there it's anyone's guess where we go. Either we drop into the freezer (-29c) or we warm up to above normal (+12c).

Nothing like a 41 degree spread to inspire confidence in the upcoming pattern change. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now noticing a January thread was created.

I don't see any significant snowstorm chances coming in the near future, but I would like to see what the stretch between Super Bowl and Easter provides.

[Minny_Weather]

Models are consistent in showing a strong SLP with major storm potential @ hr 240 in their respective runs.

[Tom]

Just now, Minny_Weather said:

Models are consistent in showing a strong SLP with major storm potential @ hr 240 in their respective runs.

Big Dog in the works…someone is gonna get crushed

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS and CMC both take the storm around the 5th/6th further north than they have on previous runs. That one might come into play for some NE/SD/MN/IA folks if that's a new trend. 

[gimmesnow]

15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS and CMC both take the storm around the 5th/6th further north than they have on previous runs. That one might come into play for some NE/SD/MN/IA folks if that's a new trend. 

Yup, that's the pattern. It's gonna head north and leave southern Wisconsin and everything south and east with warmth and rain. Supposed to go on a snowboard trip to the UP the weekend of the 20th and they aren't even open yet.

[GDR]

What a monster on the gfs

[james1976]

3 potential storms to watch between the 5th-14th.

[GDR]

All aboard the storm train

[Tom]

Well, this has escalated quickly...#SouthwestTwoMidwestConnection....love seeing these cold troughs coming down and dumping snows in the mountains up here.  It was just a matter of time before this happened...LFG!

[Tom]

Huge uptick on the 12z GEFS...

[hawkstwelve]

FWIW, the GraphCast is much further south with the storm around the 9th when compared to the other models. Although, it was late to the game for having the correct placement with the Christmas storm so that could be happening again here. 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

This has taken a interesting  turn..

[hawkstwelve]

Now this is looking more like winter...

[Tom]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Now this is looking more like winter...

#buildtheglacier