January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

That lead storm is looking mighty interesting for the S MW up thru OHV...

12z Euro...

 

[Tom]

The Big Dog goes nuclear for KS/MO...woah!  

[jcwxguy]

Whoa. Shift north just a little bit 

[Tom]

Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard....#Southwest2MidwestConnection....this storm really has perked my interest!

@Hoosier, Looks like INDY will set a new snow less record, then in a matter of a day or two it may be Ground Zero!

[CentralNebWeather]

1 minute ago, jcwxguy said:

Whoa. Shift north just a little bit 

Long way to go. Still another 7-8 days. I can only imagine the amount of shifts north and south this week. 

[Tom]

12z Euro farther east...

 

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard....#Southwest2MidwestConnection....this storm really has perked my interest!

@Hoosier, Looks like INDY will set a new snow less record, then in a matter of a day or two it may be Ground Zero!

Very nice run.  Man, just wish it was a day or two away!

[Tom]

12z GEFS...fire up the storm train...

[CentralNebWeather]

[mlgamer]

16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Long way to go. Still another 7-8 days. I can only imagine the amount of shifts north and south this week. 

Yeah, the I-70 corridor hasn't seen anything like that in decades so not expecting that to verify. Yet showing on the Euro under 10 days is something to watch.

However, the KS/MO folks should all break out the cigars if that somehow happened...lol

[KTPmidMO]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro farther east...

 

LETS GO! Come on we need a big storm to pan out, we are overdue here in Central Mo.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Very nice run.  Man, just wish it was a day or two away!

The consistency in the EPS/EURO Op has really gone from just a Possible storm to a more Probable system...for that matter, a more impactful storm for the Midwesterners!

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z Euro farther east...

 

Decent lake enhanced signal on the western shore of Lake Michigan.  This is where the inferno December could pay off by giving a little extra boost from the lake compared to usual.  But it's still way too far out to get into those details.

[Tom]

12z Euro OP...what you want to see for our southern members...."High over Low"...

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Decent lake enhanced signal on the western shore of Lake Michigan.  This is where the inferno December could pay off by giving a little extra boost from the lake compared to usual.  But it's still way too far out to get into those details.

Oh ya, no doubt....this storm is giving me goosebumps from past years tracking Beasts like these...I may want to fly back home!

[Iceresistance]

33 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Whoa. Shift north just a little bit 

More likely to go south

[james1976]

Not liking the south trend but our southern friends are over due for a big dog. Some peeps in here are gonna get crushed over the next 10 days!

[GDR]

Oklahoma will be in a great spot after tomorrows runs

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I sorta knew I was hosed on this one from the start.

 

D**n shame too, considering, y'know, there is zero snow on the ground in most of Minnesota.

[Clinton]

EPS for the 1st storm (6th and 7th)

Big dog (8th-11th)

Control 10:1

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EPS for the 1st storm (6th and 7th)

Big dog (8th-11th)

Control 10:1

My goodness, the consistency…this board won’t be a snooze fest that’s for sure!

[Wheezer]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EPS for the 1st storm (6th and 7th)

Big dog (8th-11th)

Control 10:1

Thanks for posting, at this range the EPS maps are the way to go

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, Tom said:

My goodness, the consistency…this board won’t be a snooze fest that’s for sure!

I would like to see a little more cold air with that first system and get our Oklahoma friends some snow, it's not to far away.  The 2nd storm is going to be huge!

[hawkstwelve]

Still tons of time for shifts both north and south. Exact track won't be decided for a while. One important point remains and I'd say is as much of a slam dunk as you could have at this range: there will be a large storm and some folks will get crushed with 10-12+ inches. Lots of fun model riding ahead! 

[Iceresistance]

EPS trend

[Iceresistance]

Just now, hawkstwelve said:

Still tons of time for shifts both north and south. Exact track won't be decided for a while. One important point remains and I'd say is as much of a slam dunk as you could have at this range: there will be a large storm and some folks will get crushed with 10-12+ inches. Lots of fun model riding ahead! 

Is it more like it will go more south than north on the trends?

[Clinton]

Talk a big spread with the MJO, some models take it well into the warm phases and other right into the null.

The GEFS couldn't be uglier.

The Euro not so bad.

JMA

EPO looks to join the AO, NAO and WPO and go back negative.  Very conflicting for the 2nd half of the month.

 

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

12z Euro farther east...

 

That would an I-70 Mauler. If we got half that much snow I wouldn’t complain the rest of the winter.

[gabel23]

35 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EPS for the 1st storm (6th and 7th)

Big dog (8th-11th)

Control 10:1

I would take that and run. Too bad we are a long ways out! I’m thinking a big storm is a good bet though. 

[ATW]

21 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I would like to see a little more cold air with that first system and get our Oklahoma friends some snow, it's not to far away.  The 2nd storm is going to be huge!

Clinton, if this happens it’ll be the best storm since Feb or March 2021. Jan-Mar 2021 was very nice. 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, ATW said:

Clinton, if this happens it’ll be the best storm since Feb or March 2021. Jan-Mar 2021 was very nice. 

My fingers are crossed.  This has the potential to be our biggest snowfall this season.

[uticasnow]

On 3/3/2023 at 7:45 PM, Niko said:

Cool stuff right?!! ....and that was loud too. I saw 2 lightning strikes and heard a loud thunder. Nothing like "Thundersnow." The best.

Storm threads for upcoming storms?

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Talk a big spread with the MJO, some models take it well into the warm phases and other right into the null.

The GEFS couldn't be uglier.

The Euro not so bad.

JMA

EPO looks to join the AO, NAO and WPO and go back negative.  Very conflicting for the 2nd half of the month.

 

It seems to me like the models have been underestimating the strength of the MJO, so color me skeptical of a long lasting trip to the COD.  Guess we'll see.

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It seems to me like the models have been underestimating the strength of the MJO, so color me skeptical of a long lasting trip to the COD.  Guess we'll see.

The Euro is loosing support with a trip into the null phase.  The CFS doubles back to phase 2 then goes warm.

[mlgamer]

Interesting snippet from Wichita, KS afternoon (12/31) AFD:

"A look ahead into late next weekend and early next week (7-9 days out)...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports an anomalously deep/strong western CONUS trough ejecting onto Mid- America. Based on model trends the past few days, this could possibly materialize into a strong storm system somewhere across the region, along with much colder temperatures surging south. This is still a long ways out from a forecasting standpoint, so uncertainty still remains high. Stay tuned, as forecast details are refined the next several days."

[uticasnow]

Detroit doesn't seem too hyped about the end of next week:

 Cold air
trailing this system brings a brief shot of below normal
temperatures for highs limited to the 20s Thursday which quickly
swing warmer by Friday.

 

[Clinton]

From Bastardi:

oe Bastardi
Dec 31 2023

That is the most bullish snow run on the euro ensemble I can remember

The carpet is getting laid down for the emperor of the north to strut in on

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:  

A more significant winter storm system will potentially move through the area late Sunday through Monday. Given that we are 8 days out, specifics are still quite uncertain. But the potential for winter impacts appear to be increasing. The latest EPS ensemble shows a 10 to 30% chance for over 6 inches of snowfall portions of the forecast area, possibly with very strong winds as well. A lot could still change, but this is certainly a time period worth watching.

 

[KTPmidMO]

Anyone have the 18z GFS ensembles?

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS with a slight jump back northward but overall pretty close to its 12z run.