January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Stacsh]

Man.  What looked epic in the long run turns out to be nothing again.  Worst winter ever.   

[Minny_Weather]

3 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Man.  What looked epic in the long run turns out to be nothing again.  Worst winter ever.   

Yeah, I feel that. I didn't expect to get hit by a CO low in January despite what models were saying, but definitely disappointed that we lost the clipper train.

Thankfully it's cold enough here to hold 3" of snow on the ground cuz it looks like that's all I'll have for the foreseeable future. I'd be going nuts if I still lived in ND, what a terrible winter there.

[OKwx2k4]

Running a little ahead of our two storms to start things off down here for the year, I want to point out the third part....

It a week, it looks like we're going to see a beast, per Euro. Holy moly. Really starting to believe this is a reality. 

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  It’s a beautiful and cold morning out here in the White Mountains!  Can’t wait to drive around town and snap some pics and vids.  I’ll be on the road for most of the day.  I’m thrilled to see this monster storm is about to deliver a significant amount of snow for a larger portion of our Sub.  This system has some serious energy after what I experienced up here.  So grateful for being able to experience a wonderful snowstorm and being in the thick of it!

[Clinton]

Very cold upcoming weekend with highs struggling to reach double digits.  Local met expecting a good snow on Friday we'll see.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 36/30 the day started out with 1” of snow on the ground here in MBY that melted quickly. Officially there was 0.5” of pricp and 0.3” of snowfall. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/20 the record high of 59 was set in 1965 and the record low of -13 was set in 1988. The wettest was 0.74” in 1937 the most snowfall was 5.2” in 2015. The most on the ground was 20” in 1999. Last year the H/L was 32/28.

We are now 7 days into January and the warmth has continued the mean at Grand Rapids for the week was 31.3° that is +5.1 the highest so far is 36 and the lowest so far is 24. Over at Lansing the mean there so far is 29.9 that is a departure of +4.7 the highest so far is 35 and the lowest is 22. At Muskegon the mean is a very mild 34.4 that is a departure of +6.4. the warmest so far has been 39 and the lowest is just 29.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan for January 8th

1880: Temperatures remain above freezing for the fifth consecutive day during the warmest January on record at Lansing.

1965: Temperatures soar to record highs of 59 degrees at Grand Rapids and Lansing and 55 degrees at Muskegon. A cold front moves through and temperatures will only reach the 20s the next day.

 2005, the city of Samaria in Monroe County received 6.0 inches of snow when a snowstorm hit the area.

1973:  Georgia’s worst ice storm since 1935 occurred from the 7th through the 8th. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning hours on Sunday the 7th and ended in most areas on Monday. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had another $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week.

2019: An unusual January tornado impacted Cortland, Ohio, during the mid-morning hours. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east. The tornado brought down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path.

[Beltrami Island]

Finally got below 0 (-2f) for the first time this winter, might be the latest first below 0 reading for a winter on record here.  Looking back at some warm winters in my memory and we still had below 0 temps sometime in December those years.  

[tStacsh]

12 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Man.  What looked epic in the long run turns out to be nothing again.  Worst winter ever.   

The storm Friday could make up for this post.   But it needs to happen how it is modeling to some extent.   Still plenty of winter left to turn it around.  

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Running a little ahead of our two storms to start things off down here for the year, I want to point out the third part....

It a week, it looks like we're going to see a beast, per Euro. Holy moly. Really starting to believe this is a reality. 

Given the enormous lead time I have my healthy doubts

However, the thing I like about this is we will:

1.) Definitely have plenty of low level cold air by this point

2.) It's a different kind of system. It's not another one of these cutting lows that intensifies right as it goes by us. This one would be more of an open wave as that shortwave from the Pacific merges with the remnant of the PV sliding east.

Plenty of things could derail the timing of course, but if it did happen, I suspect it would not be trying to trend north and intensify too late in the game. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z CMC is back to a stronger weekend system for the Central/Northern Plains.

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z CMC is back to a stronger weekend system for the Central/Northern Plains.

GFS stayed south with this one giving me a good snow dump. 

 

[Black Hole]

ECMWF came in a little south. The system is too dry at this stage to do much, but it does drop 1-2" of snow here before it races away. It's not much but I'd take it. 

[Black Hole]

The snow event on the 14-15th looks good on the ECMWF. It's bitter cold so it really does the most it can with low precip totals. 

[Minny_Weather]

5 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Finally got below 0 (-2f) for the first time this winter, might be the latest first below 0 reading for a winter on record here.  Looking back at some warm winters in my memory and we still had below 0 temps sometime in December those years.  

I know Fargo's latest on record WAS December 31. Kinda surprised me and seems like it was a rather low-hanging fruit to beat.

[hawkstwelve]

-20 degree wind chills all weekend. That sounds cold.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: While low chances for light snow
persist through the weekend, the biggest impact will by far be
dangerously cold conditions starting Friday and continuing through
the weekend. During this period, a strong upper trough (at the max
of the NAEFS climatology for this time of year) digs deep into the
Central U.S. with a corresponding Arctic sfc high nosing into the
High Plains (to our west). The sfc high induces breezy conditions,
with high temperatures are favored to be in the single digits with
nighttime/early morning low temperatures in the teens below zero. As
the coldest air moves in Saturday and Sunday, wind chills may not
rise above -20F from Saturday morning through Monday morning.

[Tom]

Made it back home and greeted by snow capped mountains to my east.  I was driving into the valley about 30 miles out and was struck by how low the snow fell.  It wasn’t forecasted to get this low.  This was a great experience.  Short 32 hour trip!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mlgamer]

This is what I'd call an "active pattern"!

[Clinton]

Here's some cold.

 

[Minny_Weather]

I've pretty much resigned myself to the fact that a decent snow cover, if I get one this winter, will be achieved through nickel and dimers. Which is why I like NAM's solution for Wednesday's clipper up here.

Unfortunately, it is a moist outlier at the moment. It gives me and even more snow-starved areas to my west and northwest 3", while other models struggle to give us 1".

[hawkstwelve]

I'll measure tomorrow morning but I probably will end up with around foot when this system is done. Crazy thing is by the end of the weekend that will be considered low compared to what many folks will probably end up with. Goes to show the strength of the pattern over the next week. Unfortunately it's looking to setup just a bit too far south for my area.

All I can say is thank God we had that band over us this morning or else I'd be pretty close to where Minny is at and throwing up my hands with this winter. 

[Clinton]

0z Euro Control has KC tying it's all time record low next Tuesday morning.

[Tom]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I'll measure tomorrow morning but I probably will end up with around foot when this system is done. Crazy thing is by the end of the weekend that will be considered low compared to what many folks will probably end up with. Goes to show the strength of the pattern over the next week. Unfortunately it's looking to setup just a bit too far south for my area.

All I can say is thank God we had that band over us this morning or else I'd be pretty close to where Minny is at and throwing up my hands with this winter. 

For a moment there, just a few days ago, you thought you'd be on the sideline....what a great feeling it must be to be blessed with a Foot of white gold!

[Tom]

I officially can't "LIKE" anymore comments bc it appears I reached my limit!  LOL, anyway...this is so wonderful to see Winter return as it was on Hiatus for too long in DEC.  I honestly believe this JAN willmake up in a hurry for a lot of our members!

[Minny_Weather]

Models are bringing back the idea of a clipper pattern. I'll believe it when I see it. 

The grass is (barely) covered thanks to this last storm so it finally looks like winter here in Lakes Country. Let's slowly pile on.

[Minny_Weather]

The EPS MEAN (not just one member) calling for a Barney rampage in MT and the Central Plains this weekend.

The low for Cut Bank, MT shows as -38 in their grid on Friday night. 

[westMJim]

THE WOLVERINES ARE NATIONAL CHAMPIONS!

Congratulations to the Wolverines for their resounding defeat of the Washington Huskies 34 to 13!  

Also congratulations to the ones who have gotten snow so far out of this so called 1st system. Here in MBY so far just 0.2" of snowfall that right just .2" of snow on the ground here with light snow falling and a temperature of 33

[chescowxman]

After today's storm we should see the weather improving tomorrow with rare sunshine returning for one day on Thursday. Our next rain event takes place on Friday before a turn to much colder by Saturday with potential snow chances increasing early next week.

Records for today: High 68 (1930) / Low -1 (1970) / Rain 1.66" (1964) / Snow 3.0" (1977)

[westMJim]

So far this snow event has almost been a no show here in the Grand Rapids area with some light snow and a temperature of 33 there is just 0.2” of snow on the ground. While it is too early to say how the Friday to Saturday system will play out just remember a few days ago this system was said to be a "huge" storm and so far it has been not much of anything and at this time there is less than a half inch of snow on the ground here in MBY.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/31 there was a trace of snowfall and no sunshine. The official snowfall for this season at GRR as of yesterday was at 3.5” that is a departure of -30.6” below average as of this date. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 57 was set in 1939 and the record low of -14 was set in 1977. The wettest January 9^th was in 1946 with 0.85” (all rain) the most snowfall of 8.0” was in 1930 The most on the ground was 19” in 1999. Last year the H/L was 39/29.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for January 9 in southern Lower Michigan 

1930: A snowstorm drops from 4 to 8 inches of snow across southwest Lower Michigan.

1977: Record cold prevails during one of the most severe winters in Michigan history. Records include the 17 below zero at Lansing, 14 below at Grand Rapids and 8 below at Muskegon.

2015: Temperatures in the single numbers and lake effect snow showers create icy roads resulting in a 193 car pileup on Interstate 94 and both east and westbound lanes are shut down between Battle Creek and Galesburg.

 2004, a band of lake effect snow formed over Lake Huron and dropped 4-6 inches of snow across the northeast tip of the thumb.

 1997, significant ice accumulation on the wings of Comair flight 3272, crashed in a field outside Detroit near Ida, Michigan. The plane was en route from Cincinnati, Ohio. All 29 people, including 26 passengers and three crew members, were killed.

[Hawkeye]

It appears it may be brutally cold for the Iowa caucuses next Monday evening.  The Euro is showing a temp across the state of -10F and a wind chill of nearly -30F.

[Beltrami Island]

3 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

Models are bringing back the idea of a clipper pattern. I'll believe it when I see it. 

The grass is (barely) covered thanks to this last storm so it finally looks like winter here in Lakes Country. Let's slowly pile on.

The most frustrating thing about a clipper pattern/nw flow is the wildly different snowfall outcomes possible from very similar 500mb patterns.  And when it is good, the clippers just sort of show up 2-4 days out on models because on the synoptic scale they are so small. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Besides a half inch here or there over the next five days, and assuming the solutions showing 2-3 inches here for the Friday system are incorrect, it's looking very likely that I will have to wait for a pattern reset before scoring any additional snow. So close to historic numbers with the next couple systems but the upcoming track is just a hair too far south. Ensembles are picking up a system around the 21st-23rd, which the 12z GFS shows this morning, and that looks to be my next best shot. 

Which, given this is what our landscape now looks like after having bare ground practically all season, I guess I can live with it.

 

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Besides a half inch here or there over the next five days, and assuming the solutions showing 2-3 inches here for the Friday system are incorrect, it's looking very likely that I will have to wait for a pattern reset before scoring any additional snow. So close to historic numbers with the next couple systems but the upcoming track is just a hair too far south. Ensembles are picking up a system around the 21st-23rd, which the 12z GFS shows this morning, and that looks to be my next best shot. 

Which, given this is what our landscape now looks like after having bare ground practically all season, I guess I can live with it.

 

That's precisely my LR call some time ago...#BearingSeaRule and the LRC are gonna shine on this one...

[Niko]

Happy New Year Everyone!!

Just came back from Athens Greece last night after being there several days for the New Year.

Definitely need to catch up in here....so many threads, holy crap! Will try to read as much as possible.

[Clinton]

It's beginning to look like yet another system will bring some high ratio snows to parts of the sub on Sunday. GFS has been consistent with a system in this time period.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM, which was the last remaining model to give me a multi-inch snowfall with the fropa tomorrow, has dried up.

Euro still gives me >2", but I don't trust Euro in the short range.

[Clinton]

Storm on Sunday getting my attention.  No rest!

[Grizzcoat]

RAP and HRRR showing plowable snow C.IA into E.IA later today

[Tom]

Question, I just saw an email from Gary Lezak comparing the NOV 24th storm to this past storm on Jan 7th...now, didn't someone on here say that he was suggesting a 51 day cycle?  I didn't believe so and thought it was shorter than that but it clearly shows below that its around 44 days.

 

His email message below...

Quote

In the images provided above, you can see the weather patterns on November 24, 2023, and 44 days later on January 7, 2024. Notably, these patterns exhibit a striking resemblance. What's particularly noteworthy is that after experiencing the weather pattern in November, we had the foresight to prepare a forecast for the recurrence of this pattern in the current timeframe. In November, this cycle yielded 3-4 inches of snow in Kansas City. However, this time around, it has produced a substantial 4 to 10 inches.

 EDIT: Disregard what I mentioned in the bolded because I got my dates confused and the storm we are tracking for this Fri-SAT correlates with the pattern that I described below.

With that being said, there was a second storm that developed a couple days later and phased with a piece of energy that track all the way from the NW Territories of Canada (PV?) but phased much later near Ontario.  The MLK weekend snow event being advertised across OK/MO/S IL  and up the App's should be monitored.  @Black Hole @Clinton @OKwx2k4