Minny_Weather Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 GEFS still has quite the variation, mainly as it pertains to thermals GFS storm track 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z Euro run coming in colder so far. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Looks like 12z Euro might end up going a bit north too since the initial trough is lagging. We will see soon. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Looking like a nice run-to-run change for my area on 500mb heights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z vs 00z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 The Euro elongates the SLP way up into MN which appears to produce an inverted trough? This does produce some snow farther north near IA/MN as the main low takes shape in TX. Less of a dynamic storm in this set up. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Another 12z vs 00z MSLP comparison, along with snowfall total comparison through Tuesday evening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 The trough never cuts off as hard on the ECMWF so it retains a little cooler air on the backside. So even though the storm is weaker and further north it gives me a bit more snow anyway. The 10-1 maps look like 1-2" so with appropriate SLP ratios that's probably like an inch. I guess its something. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Euro is bad for a lot of areas (as in no snow) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 It won't really pertain to this storm, but I like how it stays colder in northwest Canada since the trough remains more focused, might help with other snow chances down the road. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Boy that run sucked for snow here in central Missouri compared to 00z run. Is this gonna be another storm where we just cant get the cold? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 What a rug puller of a Euro run. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Long ways out, but that run of the Euro was very disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 It'll be a noteworthy trend if the EPS pulls back on the snow mean... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, Tom said: It'll be a noteworthy trend if the EPS pulls back on the snow mean... I'd rather see the model foolishness now instead of at 3-4 days out (of course it happens then too sometimes). It's still like 6 days until this thing enters the Plains. Long time to go. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 In regards to the LRC, I think the CMC solution is the best match from the 12z runs this morning. Thus, I am somewhat optimistic the GFS and Euro could trend a little more favorably for MBY in future runs. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z EPS shifted south from 00z and increased totals for some in Missouri and surrounding areas. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z EPS shifted south from 00z and increased totals for some in Missouri and surrounding areas. Pretty much all of that in southern KS is from the 1st system. System #2 is a no show...darn it. lol 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z EPS control run after the first storm and then again near the end of the run. A lot of the fill-in happens with the system around the 12th. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 The 12z JMA looks a lot better overall... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 12z EPS probabilities of 3+ inches. Again, a pretty decent shift south with the heaviest axis vs it's 00z run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 2 Author Report Share Posted January 2 38 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z EPS probabilities of 3+ inches. Again, a pretty decent shift south with the heaviest axis vs it's 00z run. Even if my place is in a bad spot on there, I'm happy to see the North shore in the >90% zone. They need the snow the most. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Watch this end up being an EC storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Gfs seems better this run so far 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 18z vs 12z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Crushes central and eastern Nebraska 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Gfs seems better this run so far Katy bar the door 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 18z vs 12z GFS snowfall totals through Tuesday afternoon. Looks kind of Canadian-like with the more slanted heavier axis instead of running straight W/E. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Caught in between per usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Right now it appears the GFS/CMC are tight with each other and that Uncle Ukie is trying to join the party but can't get a ride. The Euro is not invited. 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Yeah, that 18z GFS looks a lot better as others have noted and I thought it might come around again. Of course, it does put me in a snow hole but nothing to be concerned about for now. 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 18z vs 12z GEFS snowfall totals through Wednesday morning... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 I don’t know what you call it. We call it rain. Much needed. 1 2 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 6 hours ago, mlgamer said: In regards to the LRC, I think the CMC solution is the best match from the 12z runs this morning. Thus, I am somewhat optimistic the GFS and Euro could trend a little more favorably for MBY in future runs. Todays 12z Euro did take the low into the Ark/Lo/Tex region similar to cycle 1. I think there is going to be a lot more twist and turns the next couple days. Todays 12z Euro: Cycle 1: 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Looks like the CMC has moved further south, especially noticeable when compared to last night's 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks like the CMC has moved further south, especially noticeable when compared to last night's 00z. Can you post it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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