Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 2 hours ago, KTPmidMO said: I agree with that! GFS way south but GEFS north. Models don't have a handle on this thing yet I don't believe. 12z Euro was better for us. The EPS is further north than the operational. The CMC ensemble mean is even better. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Big bertha starting to appear at the end of the NAM. Feels like we’ve been tracking this thing for weeks and it’s not even in the nam range yet 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, Money said: Feels like we’ve been tracking this thing for weeks and it’s not even in the nam range yet We've been snow starved! lol 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 18z vs 12z GFS storm total comparison... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 18z GFS came in a few tics stronger. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Thermals stink. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Thermals will be an issue for everyone in this sub with the exception of those in central NE, SD, etc... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 EAX AFD National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 357 PM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 .Discussion... Issued at 355 PM CST THU JAN 4 2024 Key Messages: - Light wintry mix and snow possible tomorrow and tomorrow night with minor (generally less than 1") accumulations possible. - Another period of light snow possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, but little to no accumulation is expected. - Accumulating snow becoming more likely for Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Snowfall amounts and specific locations most favored for the highest amounts are still very much uncertain. Stay tuned for updates. The active pattern continues as another mid-upper level trough makes landfall across the Pacific Northwest by Saturday afternoon and digs southward over the Four Corners and Desert Southwest by late Sunday night. The system crosses the Southern Rockies and moves into the Southern Plains, undergoing lee cyclogenesis heading into Monday morning and becoming a well defined mid latitude cyclone. This system will eventually eject to the ENE across the Southern and Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday night into Tuesday. The exact track of the low will play a very large role in our weather for Monday into Tuesday, including the progression of precipitation types and snowfall totals. As of now it appears that the system should begin as rain across our region, with a changeover to snow Monday night into Tuesday morning as thermal profiles cool. Confidence is still quite low in total snowfall amounts and where the highest snow totals may be. The 12z European ensemble shows roughly a 50% chance for snow greater than or equal to (GTE henceforth) 3" over the KC metro, with this increasing toward 60% to even 70% over northern MO. The 12z GFS ensemble is similar, while the Canadian ensemble shifts the higher 3" probabilities a little further to the southeast. The 12z NBM snowfall probabilities at MCI are a 69% chance for GTE 1", 51% chance for GTE 2", 32% for GTE 4", 23% for GTE 6", and 16% for GTE 8". In addition, winds will likely be elevated due to the tightened pressure gradient, which could lead to possibly blowing snow and lowered visibilities. This is all a long, drawn out way of further exemplifying that the goal posts are quite wide at the moment, but that this system has the potential to be fairly impactful. Stay tuned for updates and as always, stick to reliable and trustworthy weather sources. Snow should come to an end from west to east by late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, with cold Arctic air moving in Tuesday night yielding overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s. Another quick moving shortwave trough may descend out of the Northern Plains into the Midwest on Thursday, bringing a cold front through the area. This may bring another slight chance for some light snow as well as very cold temperatures to the region for Thursday night into Friday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 18z vs 12z GEFS storm total... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 4 Report Share Posted January 4 Just now, hawkstwelve said: 18z vs 12z GEFS storm total... Nice jump in totals for central MO and mby, 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Nice jump in totals for central MO and mby, If we can just get a few inches. Cold air will come in Tuesday night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pros3lyte Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Ahhh I see SE MI has applied its yearly snow repellant! :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Anyone have the 18z Euro control? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Anyone have the 18z Euro control? Here it is, very similar to the GFS. Good run for mby 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 18z EPS Mean. This looks very LRC friendly based on the previous cycle. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Officially within range of the 18z Euro. It's getting closer! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 6 hours ago, westMJim said: You might mean the so called Groundhog day storm of Feb 2011. That storm had 18" of snowfall and I am sure there was a NE wind. Not sure what the highest wind was. In Bay City during the January 1967, 1978 and March 1972 storms the NE wind reached up to 65MPH but remember Bay City is on the Saginaw Bay and a long open stretch to the NE No, but GHD-1 also qualifies, and was more recent by 9 yrs. I know it was 02 because that was my last year in S. Bend and we got grazed by only 2-4" while the jackzone strip was not too far NW of us. Had to be 02, since both 01and 00 were duds during late winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: Obviously extremely unlikely, but there's an EPS member that gets down to 955 mb in northern lower MI. IDC, please share it for my "museum of weenie runs" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Note that it is now evening of the 4th, and the "HEAVY SNOW" swath starts on the 7th in CO - just 3 days till kick-off so we are not that far away. I really think this is getting dialed-in and major wobbles will be fewer and fewer. Today's WPC map has a good look imho. I stepped out to my car after work with WC's in the lower teens. It is cold enough in NMI to support bliz conditions and I do believe models like the EC are sniffing the colder air source and jacking up the response. At least up here it should be able to "take off" nicely. 5 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Note that it is now evening of the 4th, and the "HEAVY SNOW" swath starts on the 7th in CO - just 3 days till kick-off so we are not that far away. I really think this is getting dialed-in and major wobbles will be fewer and fewer. Today's WPC map has a good look imho. I stepped out to my car after work with WC's in the lower teens. It is cold enough in NMI to support bliz conditions and I do believe models like the EC are sniffing the colder air source and jacking up the response. At least up here it should be able to "take off" nicely. The ensembles really seemed to get dialed in this afternoon. I agree it's starting to take shape. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 38 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z EPS Mean. This looks very LRC friendly based on the previous cycle. Let’s just go ahead and lock this in and call it a day! Lol 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Let’s just go ahead and lock this in and call it a day! Lol I'm good with that. It would be a heavy wet snow that may stay for awhile. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bumblin Bman09 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said: Let’s just go ahead and lock this in and call it a day! Lol I am up in Northern IL and would lock this in now as well. I am more excited with the cold coming in with several other chacnes for higher ratio events. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 47 minutes ago, jaster220 said: IDC, please share it for my "museum of weenie runs" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 That defo band means business. Someone is gonna cash! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 52* Rain about to begin. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 59 minutes ago, Clinton said: The ensembles really seemed to get dialed in this afternoon. I agree it's starting to take shape. All indicators saying we have a sig if not better storm on our hands. I think the coming runs, especially when fully sampled will be about just what the ceiling looks like. Needless to say, a 955 mb SLP is bliz of '78 grade material (without a merge scenario no less). 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 34 minutes ago, Hoosier said: TYPO?? lol Hafta say, that's a pretty nice cluster of 965-970 mb progs at this range. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 APX 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 0z icon looks pretty similar to previous runs but good hit for northern IL and southern WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 0z ICON 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 ukie big shift east 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 And North. James gets in!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Bullseye after bullseye for me. Not only this storm we are tracking but others that follow. Not sure if that’s a good sign or not. Snow on top of snow on top of snow is very unusual outside of lake effect systems. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 5 Report Share Posted January 5 Weaker this run- but precip shield further E into IA-- will not be 10:1 as thermals are borderline for many with 2M temps above 0C for much of the event. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.