January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[Money]

Ukie 

[Hoosier]

UK actually briefly flips to rain here.

[Hoosier]

There are some nukes on the 12z GEFS.  Several members under 970 mb

[Hoosier]

Was just thinking how remarkable it would be to get two ~980 mb lows tracking to southern Lake Michigan like 4 days apart.  Wouldn't be shocked to learn that that has never happened before... not saying it hasn't though.  Almost enough to make me think that the runs cutting to Lake Michigan have to be wrong, haha.  It will be interesting to see if we can actually pull this off.

[hawkstwelve]

Trend of last three ICON and CMC runs centered around Friday. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro further north with the Friday system compared to 00z.

[Hoosier]

Primarily rainer here on 12z Euro

You gotta be kidding me.

[Hawkeye]

The one negative on the new Euro is the digging energy is a bit broad, so it takes a while to wrap up as it cuts toward the lakes.  A sharper short wave ejecting out of the southwest would lead to a bigger storm, earlier.

Despite a great surface low track, snow across Iowa is kinda meh.

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro further north with the Friday system compared to 00z.

Pretty good increase around here. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GraphCast doesn't look half bad.

 

 

[Hoosier]

Some monsters on the 12z EPS.  Quite a few of these are deeper than the op run.

[Money]

I’m just glad we have something to track

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, Money said:

I’m just glad we have something to track

I call these the throw **** at the wall patterns.  A lot of folks (unfortunately not everybody) should have 2-3 good chances over the next 10 days or so.  

[Money]

Icon at 96

[Clinton]

12z EPS

12z GEFS

[Money]

120

[Money]

GFS is awful 

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS is awful 

More of a multi part event at first glance.

[winterfreak]

This one seems to be fading.

[Hoosier]

Comparing the 18z GFS to the 12z GFS, notice how 18z puts more emphasis on an initial wave in the Midwest.  Also the base of the trough in Mexico is farther east.  Result... more of a 2 part event with the second one ending up east of 12z.

 

[Stacsh]

Adios.  The models suck and are a tease

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Adios.  The models suck and are a tease

Bailing over the 18z GFS?

[Money]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Bailing over the 18z GFS?

Bailing over a 18z gfs run 5 days away with a lot of moving parts is hilarious lol 

[Stacsh]

44 minutes ago, Money said:

Bailing over a 18z gfs run 5 days away with a lot of moving parts is hilarious lol 

Trends aren’t there.  This will go south.  And once again I’ll  have to rely on lake effect.  If it ever gets cold, which keeps getting pushed back.  Sitting at 2” on the year.  3 feet below normal.  

[Hoosier]

Been bad almost everywhere but relative to average, GRR has had it extremely bad so I get being pessimistic until something actually happens.  But if you put aside what has happened so far this winter, there is decent model agreement on something affecting GRR late week.  No guarantees of course, but the overall model signals in totality are pretty good at this point.

[Clinton]

EAX AFD:

As we head into Friday, models continue to suggest another trough
digging into the Desert Southwest and ejecting across the south
central US. This will bring another chance for potentially
significant accumulating snowfall Friday into Friday night,
although at the moment the track seems to be a little further
south southeast compared to the tomorrow/Tuesday system.
Additionally, very cold temperatures are likely to arrive and
plunge us into what could be a prolonged period of subfreezing
temperatures. This is currently forecast to include single digit
to perhaps even subzero temperatures Friday night, Saturday night,
and Sunday night with well below zero wind chills.

[CentralNebWeather]

I just saw my local weather app has me with 3-6” on Thursday. I had really no idea, as I’ve been focused on the first storm. 

[Money]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Trends aren’t there.  This will go south.  And once again I’ll  have to rely on lake effect.  If it ever gets cold, which keeps getting pushed back.  Sitting at 2” on the year.  3 feet below normal.  

Nearly everyone is way below normal right now..

[Hoosier]

00z ICON looks like a good hit parts of the OV into at least parts of the Lakes.

[winterfreak]

Really weak system on the models now. 

[KCSmokey]

57 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX AFD:

As we head into Friday, models continue to suggest another trough
digging into the Desert Southwest and ejecting across the south
central US. This will bring another chance for potentially
significant accumulating snowfall Friday into Friday night,
although at the moment the track seems to be a little further
south southeast compared to the tomorrow/Tuesday system.
Additionally, very cold temperatures are likely to arrive and
plunge us into what could be a prolonged period of subfreezing
temperatures. This is currently forecast to include single digit
to perhaps even subzero temperatures Friday night, Saturday night,
and Sunday night with well below zero wind chills.

That Chief’s game Saturday will be something else. 

[Money]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z ICON looks like a good hit parts of the OV into at least parts of the Lakes.

Looks like it hits you well 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Money said:

Looks like it hits you well 

Would appear so.  Noticeable lake contribution as well.

[Clinton]

Just now, KCSmokey said:

That Chief’s game Saturday will be something else. 

That would be awesome!

[Hawkeye]

This ICON run simply has the short wave flying eastward way too quickly.  It needs to dig more and slow down.

[Money]

GFS looks like it might go more north 

[Money]

HR 96

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Money said:

GFS looks like it might go more north 

I might rain in the first wave lol.  

[Hoosier]

Trough is sharper/more amplified.  Should end up north.

[Money]

What a weird evolution lol