January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON stays the same it appears 

[hawkstwelve]

12z ICON says, "I'll take your northward shift and raise you another southward shift."

[Grizzcoat]

Last storm the ICON never wavered starting about this range. Monday 12Z runs- it was the  only (EURO also) that didn't go South in Iowa.  It turned out to be the most accurate. Doesn't mean a thing this time around though.

[KTPmidMO]

13 minutes ago, ATW said:

I think we need to bank on a different storm! The trend has been to go north. The last storm kept trending north then came back a little south right before it hit….at least in Missouri. 

Yeah I haven't had a good feeling about this storm for central Missouri for a couple days now. Maybe I'll get proved wrong but I don't know. I'm more interested in the Monday system. Most models are putting a WIDE area of snow down on Monday and ratios look to be 20:1 or better.

[Andie]

Well, well, lookee who’s finally getting some winter weather!  
Put the chili on! 
High of 64 today. Sunny

[hawkstwelve]

GFS has trended ever so slightly NW over the past four runs but it looks like it still won't be where the hi-res CAMs place it.

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

Nice trends for Iowa. They might end up in the sweet spot again.

[Grizzcoat]

To eliminate today/ tonights system-- 24 HR snowfall mainly for IOWA- ( still -SN E.IA)

 

[Money]

GFS

[hawkstwelve]

Still early on the 12z CMC but it's looking like it shifted slightly north. Fairly similar to it's 00z run though and still not as far north as the CAMs.

[mlgamer]

26 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Yeah I haven't had a good feeling about this storm for central Missouri for a couple days now. Maybe I'll get proved wrong but I don't know. I'm more interested in the Monday system. Most models are putting a WIDE area of snow down on Monday and ratios look to be 20:1 or better.

Yeah, I've pretty much written this next one off. The Topeka/I-70 snow dome is taking control again.

[BojiMom]

Longtime lurker, rarely post. What time is this thing going to ramp up across Iowa on Thursday? College kid is inexperienced winter driver and needs to go about 4 hours from far NW corner of the state to NE corner of the state (UNI, for those familiar) via US Highway 20. Help me with what time she needs to leave (in the morning) to beat it. 

Appreciate you all. Especially a fan of @hawkstwelve, I am located pretty close to you.

[hawkstwelve]

15 minutes ago, BojiMom said:

Longtime lurker, rarely post. What time is this thing going to ramp up across Iowa on Thursday? College kid is inexperienced winter driver and needs to go about 4 hours from far NW corner of the state to NE corner of the state (UNI, for those familiar) via US Highway 20. Help me with what time she needs to leave (in the morning) to beat it. 

Appreciate you all. Especially a fan of @hawkstwelve, I am located pretty close to you.

We got someone from Okoboji, nice! Welcome.  

It really depends on what model you believe is right.

Here's how the NAM views things. I'm choosing to show you this one because it's among the worst case scenarios (for traveling, not for snow lovers) for N Iowa. This loop starts at 9AM Thursday and goes through Midnight Friday. Between Noon Thursday and Midnight Friday, it puts down 1-3 inches across N Iowa. The vast majority of heavier accumulations fall on Friday.

Again, this is assuming the NAM is right which who knows at this point. As evident by the final GIF which compares the RDPS, NAM, GFS, and GEM things are still very much in flux for being so close to the start of the event. In general though I'd say the earlier the better, just in case the snowier solutions pan out. 

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS holding steady-

 

[hawkstwelve]

UKMET trending south and a bit weaker for over here.

 

[Hoosier]

I am very nervous about this one bleeding north or just having warm air be an issue for my area.  Will be happy to have any snow in advance of the much colder pattern, but have had high hopes for this one here and it will sting a lot more than the last storm if it underperforms.

On a meteorological note, it is wildly impressive to see two 980 mb or lower storms take such a similar track only a few days apart.  

 

[gosaints]

Weird storm to track.  GEFS is a holdout up here

[hawkstwelve]

UKMET is trending overall much weaker with the western portion of this system.

Trend of past three runs for 24-hour totals ending noon on Saturday.

[Hoosier]

Not that this is a surprise whatsoever, but the 15z RAP is amped as all get out with a 973 mb low in central IL and rain up to Milwaukee.

[bud2380]

Canadian and GFS both very favorable for Iowa.  The NAM and CAMs are further north.  Typically not their best time frames for accuracy.  The NAM sort of did good with the last storm showing further north earlier than most, but it was too far north as it had the SLP at one point going through Dubuque, IA.  It ended up actually tracking through St. Louis, but it was on the right path with a further north snow shield that other models were not initially showing.  

[indianajohn]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I am very nervous about this one bleeding north or just having warm air be an issue for my area.  Will be happy to have any snow in advance of the much colder pattern, but have had high hopes for this one here and it will sting a lot more than the last storm if it underperforms.

On a meteorological note, it is wildly impressive to see two 980 mb or lower storms take such a similar track only a few days apart.  

 

 

Yep the current trend is a little worrisome. So fascinating how all the stars have to align perfectly for a generational type snow storm for our area.. 

[Grizzcoat]

Just now, indianajohn said:

Yep the current trend is a little worrisome. So fascinating how all the stars have to align perfectly for a generational type snow storm for our area.. 

That's why it takes a generation.

[Jaycee_CHI]

We got maybe 2” yesterday. I’m so nervous about this one going NW too and getting rain again, would be so typical for us honestly! 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I've pretty much written this next one off. The Topeka/I-70 snow dome is taking control again.

We are building a nice snow glacier in up here in Nebraska and Iowa... once that's in place I can see the storm track shifting south for you guys down in Kansas (hopefully). 

Finally our "snow dome" appears to be cracking a bit. 

[Grizzcoat]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Blitz Warning's up in the PNW is just a precursor of what you guys out East should endure...

AccuWx just said for most of the Cascades it's the first Blizzard Warning in more than a decade. Spot on Tom

[bud2380]

Euro is off and running...

[Grizzcoat]

100" ? I don't get that in 3 years- sometimes 4 or 5.

[bud2380]

Euro through 6am Friday.

 

[Money]

Euro is coming east 

[gosaints]

chicago beatdown incoming....

[bud2380]

Euro weaker this run in Iowa.  QPF overall is lower in the state.  Snow totals lower for most areas through 63 hours vs. 00z. 

 

[Tom]

Wow, Chitown blitz...

 

[uticasnow]

EURO HOUR 60

 

SLAM!

[bud2380]

00z vs 12z

 

This is the 00z

 

 

12z  through the same time.  Seems totals are down probably 25% for many areas.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro paints a Blizzard over C.IA--- sustained winds at 30-35 mph sure Gust over 45. Even 2-4" on top of current snow pack and the ditches full off main roads is not pretty.

[Tom]

Well, wouldn't ya know...the day my brother has to leave for Holland, MI...The Euro paints the heaviest band of snow right through both cities!

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro weaker this run in Iowa.  QPF overall is lower in the state.  Snow totals lower for most areas through 63 hours vs. 00z. 

 

Not in C.IA to South Central, IA-- in increased from 00Z

[Tom]

The front end of the event appears it will be a wetter snow unless temps cool a couple degrees as we get closer to the main show.  Needless to say, it should be a snow day for most of N IL and NW IN.  @Hoosier @indianajohn you guys are still in the crosshairs.  Might be a big frontend thump, then briefly switchover to RN as the low passes on by, then the backside defo band.

[uticasnow]

Total EURO Snow through hour 84