January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 (4-run trend) Ridge trending a notch stronger and wider. Trough is several notches further west.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nah this run is going to suck....

[Meatyorologist]

A psimilarly psmall pstep in the wright direction on the GFS tonight compared to the ICON.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Nah this run is going to suck....

It tries to be better. Something we should all aspire to do.

[Cloud]

And just like that the GFS had been leading the way? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 (4-run trend) I mean it's trying. The PV lobe is a bit closer, but the ridge is progressing too quickly towards us.

[Cloud]

I guess as much as people hate and clown on this model, it earned some brownie points in the grand scheme of the pattern. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend) Yeah.... No bueno. The same backdoor cold stuff.

[Parrot]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (4-run trend)

Ridge absolutely evaporates in 12 hours

[Meatyorologist]

This run is way better than I expected, honestly.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

850s -15c Columbia Basin. I guess that's the consolation prize.... El Nino simply took over too progressive.

[Gradient Keeper]

PDX significant ice storm Saturday.

[SnowySeeker50]

yuck

[Meatyorologist]

Step in the right direction over the pacific. That's what matters.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I have a good feeling that this could end up becoming a Prince Rupert special.

[Gradient Keeper]

Oh my. Destructive Ice Storm!

[Perturbed Member]

It is an improvement over the 00z GFS. I guess that's a start. Still hot garbage down here though. Just a bunch of nasty ZR. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

It is an improvement over the 00z GFS. I guess that's a start. Still hot garbage down here though. Just a bunch of nasty ZR. 

Yeah, and if that low tracks any further south PDX won't moderate at all with continued icy east winds.

[Requiem]

Better run but yikes at that ice storm, in any scenario it also takes a while longer than models anticipate for the air to scour out.

[Requiem]

Reminds me a teeny tiny bit of December 2016 actually. Probably a bit colder but cold air stuck around for so long that a quarter inch of ice turned into 1+ inch for many east metro spots.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS Day 3.5 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS Day 4.5 (4-run trend) It's trying to back up further west.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS is plenty cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 6z GEFS has a very similar theme as the 6z GFS. It looks like temps at PDX fall below freezing 4-5 PM Friday and plummet into the 20s through Sunday morning at least as a lot of precipitation arrives. It's unclear how much of that is snow, sleet, or freezing rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

MOAIS Mother of All Ice Storms

[SnowySeeker50]

GEFS is similar with having some small improvements like the gfs. Not liking the possible ice storm trends though

[Gradient Keeper]

Jeez PDX back down to 24 by 10 pm Sunday! Puget Sound all cold!

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

MOAIS Mother of All Ice Storms

Some nasty potential w this one all of a sudden. I'd take a drive up home but I'd be scared of not getting back down here for at least a few days.

[Gradient Keeper]

East wind increases Sunday evening keeping PDX in the freezer.

[Gradient Keeper]

4 am Monday fresh batch of low level arctic air spills far down the valley even.

[Gradient Keeper]

Jeez 10 PM Tuesday and PDX still hasn't moderated at 30 F.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wednesday 6-10 am PDX finally warms to 33-35 F that is assuming the model isn't trying to moderate us too quickly. That depends on east wind though.

[Gradient Keeper]

This wraps up this episode of the Night Shift. Cya later today. Root for improved 12z runs!

12z GFS in 4 hours 4 minutes
12z ECMWF in 6 hours 14 minutes

[Meatyorologist]

At 5 days out the GEFS 2m temp spread for KSEA is 9-50F 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

At 4 days out the GEFS 2m temp spread is 9-50F 

Give me the over at 42.5F 

[umadbro]

Really starting to look similar to February 2021.

[TacomaWx]

I’d say if you live north of Bellingham you’re locked in for something good to happen. North of Everett you’ve got about a 90% chance. North of Seattle 80%. North of OLM 75%. North of PDX it’s 50/50. 

[Skagit Weather]

Anybody have access to the 06z Euro? Also nice to see that NWS looks to at least believe we’ll get a bit cold up here. Low temperature forecast for Fri/Sat is close to the single digits.