January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

NWS still says rain or snow Thursday night with lows of 17 to 23 for my zone.   Probably safe to take the rain out!

I think it's safe to say it will all change as we get closer 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Call me crazy but I feel a last minute trend to colder runs ahead tonight or on the 12z runs. 

[Cold Snap]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is the second cold shot the Graph Cast showed today.  This will be a huge deal if we already have snow on the ground, and for giving us a shot at solidly cold monthly average temp.  This is at day 7.

The reason why I am hoping this isn’t a dry blast is so that we can really max out those low temps with the snow cover.

[North_County]

Got home to 29° and a fun little snow shower. Sticking and accumulating, but it's slushy and unlikely to make it to midnight.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[lowlandsnow]

Nice shift west on the NAM

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

OMG!!! 

[MV_snow]

58 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That one was very interesting.  My area got kind of shafted on the main event, because of too much east wind.  The next day the places that got way more snow warmed up and got super soggy while an easterly trickle kept it freezing here with a couple of more inches.  Pulled off an extra freezing max that day.

I actually really liked Feb 2021 here even though our accumulations were shredded from east winds a bit. One of the true Midwest-style storms I can remember here as it was snowing in the low 20s with strong winds. Very powdery storm unlike the concrete we normally get.

[Cold Snap]

16 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Best NAM run yet for PDX metro in regards to the Wednesday low 

This is the 3km. Even shows a decent amount of snow for @MossMan!

[MikeInEverett]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@MossMan

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, MV_snow said:

I actually really liked Feb 2021 here even though our accumulations were shredded from east winds a bit. One of the true Midwest-style storms I can remember here as it was snowing in the low 20s with strong winds. Very powdery storm unlike the concrete we normally get.

Yeah Feb 2021 was probably the best single snowstorm this century

[Prairiedog]

2 hours ago, Sandy rocks said:

I literally can't count how many ice storms I have endured since living east of Portland. In 2016=17, we had seven. Even a tenth of an inch is dangerous. The worst ice storm I endured was in 1978 when the icycles were four feet long, the second was in 2004 when the temperature was stuck on 17 degrees for five days and I had to get into my house with a shovel. Did I say how much I hate ice storms.

How did you do in Feb. '21?  I'm near McIver Park.  It was the worst I've ever experienced.  No power for 2 weeks. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

@MossMan

I’m drooling!! 

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Nice shift west on the NAM

Been a little west every run

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m drooling!! 

MossMan effect snow doing its thing!

[MV_snow]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Yeah Feb 2021 was probably the best single snowstorm this century

The rest of that winter sucked a$$, however.

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Nice shift west on the NAM

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Been a little west every run

It would be nice if it could go west enough to spin up a low but I don’t think that is going to happen.

[lowlandsnow]

Wow the shift in the run late is really good. Start of a trend?

[North_County]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

OMG!!! 

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It would be nice if it could go west enough to spin up a low but I don’t think that is going to happen.

It will be able to pump a bit more juice and duration into the Arctic front though

[Sandy rocks]

February of 2021 wasn't very significant here that I recall, I didn't lose any power. To tell the truth they all kind of blur together except the big ones.

[lowlandsnow]

-1 in Bellingham 1 degree off the all-time record

[MossMan]

Just hit the 40 mark for the first time today. 

[iFred]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Wow the shift in the run late is really good. Start of a trend?

Probably.

Think good thoughts.

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

-1 in Bellingham 1 degree off the all-time record

These are temps the NAM is showing for Friday? Wow. 

[icyasf]

Does anyone have any predictions for the South Valley lol? Very happy for everyone that’s gonna see snow, and still keeping my fingers crossed down here

[Cold Snap]

NAM 3km is showing even some moisture in the sound Wednesday morning.

[MossMan]

Getting a bit breezy 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

NAM 3km is showing even some moisture in the sound Wednesday morning.

PLEASE VERIFY!!!! 

[SeanNyberg]

This event is really looking dynamic. I know we always knew that it would. But more and more features are popping up. The potential intensity and potential length add to everything else.

Pretty exciting.

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, icyasf said:

Does anyone have any predictions for the South Valley lol? Very happy for everyone that’s gonna see snow, and still keeping my fingers crossed down here

It isn’t looking great down there tbh. The upper levels probably will never support snow this weekend since the cold air just isn’t going to dig that far. Maybe some freezing rain depending on how the models trend over the next two days?

Edited January 9 by FroYoBro

[Cold Snap]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

PLEASE VERIFY!!!! 

I’m hoping so as well! It even drops about 1.5” IMBY.

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

These are temps the NAM is showing for Friday? Wow. 

Keep in mind that NAM is usually pretty bad and way too aggressive with cold air at this timeframe. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

The money and increase of prestige with recruits will improve their team. Also they made it to the national championship game. They are already good.

The money part is half true, UW/UO got shafted on that with their shares for the first 5-7 yrs. But yes, they’re already good. Also, let’s lock in some regional snow on these next few runs  

[Doinko]

00z GRAF looks good for Portland for Wednesday

[umadbro]

Only downside to the Wednesday morning system is once the precip stops, temps will rise 2-3 degrees and whatever fell will melt quickly. Good chance most of the snow is melted by sunrise.

[Doinko]

ICON takes a good track for PDX

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

00z GRAF looks good for Portland for Wednesday

It would be nice for you guys to get snow and to get some snow pics from you guys from that!

[RaleighHillsRunner]

31 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

This is the 3km. Even shows a decent amount of snow for @MossMan!

Are there historical skill score/accuracy charts for the high res/short term models? Obviously their objective is to be more precise but just curious