January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

At this stage, I wouldn't mind if it trended south a bit and gave me a safety buffer.

[MossMan]

Well I guess that is settled. Onto February. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

How much ice does the 06z euro show here?

Decent amount.   Up here it moves north through western WA quickly with temps in the low 30s on Tuesday night and then its well above freezing Wednesday morning so its probably won't be a big deal.   Although there might be school delay issues early Wednesday morning.  

10 a.m. Wednesday temps shown below as well.  

[Kayla]

Low of -26F. All the way up to a balmy -17F currently but holding steady with the cloud cover moved in ahead of a little shortwave moving in. Should see a decent amount of -10F snowfall this evening amounting to 1-3".

Another beautiful frigid sunrise.

[Hawksfan2008]

Shifts to long range views for the next opportunity… 

[TT-SEA]

Going back a day... its decently warm up here on Tuesday which is why a major ice storm seems unlikely. that night.  The cold air is much more entrenched down south that day.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well I guess that is settled. Onto February. 

06Z Euro has some Pepto for you!

[Hawksfan2008]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Decent amount.   Up here it moves north through western WA quickly with temps in the low 30s on Tuesday night and then its well above freezing Wednesday morning so its probably won't be a big deal.   Although there might be school delay issues early Wednesday morning.  

10 a.m. Wednesday temps shown below as well.  

I’m not so sure we get out of it that quickly out here with winds still coming through from the east. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

06Z Euro has some Pepto for you!

Tim says even that is a non event. This entire event has sure been full of non events here. Other than the chilly air, everything that could go wrong did go wrong with this one. Oh well, hopefully this non event is the last non event for a long time.

2009. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I’m not so sure we get out of it that quickly out here with winds still coming through from the east. 

Probably why there is such widespread ZR on the 06Z Euro.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Probably why there is such widespread ZR on the 06Z Euro.

I know nothing about ice accumulation here since other than last years light glaze I never get it. What accumulation do you start to see damage? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This will go down in history as the most expensive cold wave of my life. I told myself if we missed out on this event I would hire a contractor to build my new home in chesaw and just get it done fast so I didn't have to do it over the course of 5 years myself. Making the call today.    

[Weiner Warrior]

-2 degrees at snoqualmie right now. Debating getting out of the car.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I know nothing about ice accumulation here since other than last years light glaze I never get it. What accumulation do you start to see damage? 

Takes quite a bit.   Shouldn't be any major issue with what ECMWF is showing. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, MossMan said:

I know nothing about ice accumulation here since other than last years light glaze I never get it. What accumulation do you start to see damage? 

Did a lot of research last year prior to the event in North Bend. Anything over .25 starts to cause problems but it’s pretty wind dependent. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I know nothing about ice accumulation here since other than last years light glaze I never get it. What accumulation do you start to see damage? 

Depends on wind but usually around 6 mm aka ¼ inch.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

I’m not so sure we get out of it that quickly out here with winds still coming through from the east. 

That is a broad SE wind which makes a big difference.   It won't be warm.   But warm enough to avoid ice damage.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim says even that is a non event. This entire event has sure been full of non events here. Other than the chilly air, everything that could go wrong did go wrong with this one. Oh well, hopefully this non event is the last non event for a long time.

2009. 

Ya its actually ridiculous. There was probably a 5% chance at the beginning of all this we would get fukked and we did. And then to come out of this massive cold air with just a dusting of snow and freezing rain is even more ridiculous.  I'm glad it happened though because I just shifted into high gear to get the hell out of this place hahahaha.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim says even that is a non event. This entire event has sure been full of non events here. Other than the chilly air, everything that could go wrong did go wrong with this one. Oh well, hopefully this non event is the last non event for a long time.

2009. 

I hope I am right about the ice being a non-event.

If the storm was coming in this morning it would probably be a much bigger issue.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I will say Wednesday is far from over still. In my 40 years of watching this stuff the toughest forecast is what will happen Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Almost 100% of the time the models overdue the warming aloft, mid layers and especially the surface.  It will snow here but might  only be around 1 inch, just depends on the depth of the cold dome here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I hope I am right about the ice being a non-event.

If the storm was coming in this morning it would probably be a much bigger issue.

If it came in this morning it would of been crazy.

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Did a lot of research last year prior to the event in North Bend. Anything over .25 starts to cause problems but it’s pretty wind dependent. 

Temperature also matters a great deal.

We initially had rain with temps in the low 20s last December.   That was a true overrunning event with snow at first... then sleet (for 12 hours here)... then freezing rain... and then rain.    

When it was 22 degrees and raining here the ice was accumulating fast.   Then it warmed up to 31 or 32 and the ice stopped accumulating but the existing ice was not melting either.   We ended up with big puddles on top of the snow which was crusted with ice.  It was a mess.   I also remember it warmed up a little faster up here than in NB.   When it was in the low 30s and raining up here it was still in the upper 20s down there.   

The ECMWF is showing the freezing rain with temps around 32 on Tuesday night.   If that happens it will not accumulate nearly as effectively as it did last December.  

[snow_wizard]

If you guys want a real dropper...it appears SEA will have their coldest 3 day stretch in January since 1950.  Might even be 4 day stretch.

[High Desert Mat?]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

If you guys want a real dropper...it appears SEA will have their coldest 3 day stretch in January since 1950.  Might even be 4 day stretch.

Jim. See my last post two pages back please. 

[Blizzard777]

13* this lovely chilly morning in my neck of the woods! 
my humming bird fountain looking quite nice 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I will say Wednesday is far from over still. In my 40 years of watching this stuff the toughest forecast is what will happen Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Almost 100% of the time the models overdue the warming aloft, mid layers and especially the surface.  It will snow here but might  only be around 1 inch, just depends on the depth of the cold dome here. 

I know models might not be exactly right... but upper level temps on Tuesday night during the start of the event make snow almost impossible.   The only reason its freezing rain and not rain is due to remnant cold air at the surface.  

850mb temp of +2 and 925mb of temp of +4 in the middle of the night on Tuesday.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Truly gorgeous!

[Blizzard777]

I need to go back a few pages now and catch up

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If you guys want a real dropper...it appears SEA will have their coldest 3 day stretch in January since 1950.  Might even be 4 day stretch.

What would be the real stat to look up would be how long has it been since it was this cold in January with no snow in Seattle? 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

If you guys want a real dropper...it appears SEA will have their coldest 3 day stretch in January since 1950.  Might even be 4 day stretch.

That is amazing.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know models might not be exactly right... but the 925 temps on Tuesday night during the rain event make snow almost impossible.   The only reason its freezing rain and not rain is due to remnant cold air at the surface.  

860mb temp of +2 and 925mb of temp of +4 in the middle of the night on Tuesday.

That just seems overdone. Could be correct though. 

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Ya it’s actually ridiculous. There was probably a 5% chance at the beginning of all this we would get fukked and we did. And then to come out of this massive cold air with just a dusting of snow and freezing rain is even more ridiculous.  I'm glad it happened though because I just shifted into high gear to get the hell out of this place hahahaha.

Yeah what we just had was completely ridiculously boring. Everything had to go just right to fail this hard…And it did. January 2020 was 10x better than this “event”. 

This one is going to sting for a long time. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I know models might not be exactly right... but the 925 temps on Tuesday night during the rain event make snow almost impossible.   The only reason its freezing rain and not rain is due to remnant cold air at the surface.  

860mb temp of +2 and 925mb of temp of +4 in the middle of the night on Tuesday.

It has to be 0 at 850 here and 0 to 1 at 925 to snow here normally.  I have seen it snow when models had it at 2 for the 925, I assume the model was wrong?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That just seems overdone. Could be correct though. 

Also why I have been saying Monday and Tuesday are important.  

The upper level temps are not just starting to warm when the storm arrives... they will have been warming for 3 days.   Its starting now and even by tomorrow afternoon the 925mb temp is too warm for snow.     If the cold air was locked in until the storm arrives then I would say its going to a much bigger issue.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

I need to go back a few pages now and catch up

You didn’t miss anything other than this one is over. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

9 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Jim. See my last post two pages back please. 

If you type an at-sign, you can use it to tag users so they get alerted that you mention them, like @High Desert Mat?.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It has to be 0 at 850 here and 0 to 1 at 925 to snow here normally.  I have seen it snow when models had it at 2 for the 925, I assume the model was wrong?

Your area seems to be a prime spot for tiny pockets of trapped cold air in these situations.   It can be snowing there and literally nowhere else in the lowlands.  

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Got quiet in here.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I will say Wednesday is far from over still. In my 40 years of watching this stuff the toughest forecast is what will happen Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Almost 100% of the time the models overdue the warming aloft, mid layers and especially the surface.  It will snow here but might  only be around 1 inch, just depends on the depth of the cold dome here. 

This situation is way too complex to call it done yet.