January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[TT-SEA]

RGEM on board for northern areas... and very close for Randy.

 

[snow_wizard]

Well the graph cast is going to look brilliant or bust badly with the upcoming possible event.  It has been a lot colder than the other models with it.  Looking at the pieces that are in play a good outcome could still happen.  The frustrating thing is with a few tweaks it could be something really good.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

RGEM on board for northern areas... and very close for Randy.

 

Soooo close!!! 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

If you're young and/or new here and trying to learn, you might get better responses just coming out and saying it. 

Most people here have a smart a** attitude that can only be earned by being consistently disappointed by PNW snow chance busts, but you seem like maybe you're young and trying to learn about this stuff. I keep thinking about my children or even myself if I had access to resources like this forum when I was a snow obsessed kid. Sorry if you feel like you're being brushed off. 

I hope this isn't my Nyberg moment.  

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

RGEM on board for northern areas... and very close for Randy.

 

What a sting that would be for Seattle.  Missed on both sides during this cold wave.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So far no sign of going into something really super warm though.  I think a royal torch is still possible, but maybe we can avoid it.  We still have the MJO 7 wildcard coming up late month too.

A well below average January is always a win. This cold spell is really going to weigh down the averages, so it shouldn’t be too hard.

And you’re correct that it looks like we don’t return to December level torching at the moment. Just more typical winter temps, if not a little on the mild side at times.

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, GoldenEars said:

Went to watch the ice buckle along the shore of the Fraser River this morning. There wasn't a whole lot in Pitt Meadows so I drove up to Mission where the river was full of ice. 

Looks like winter!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I was very close to making this my profile pic the other day 

[Cascadia_Wx]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

We’re gonna take a spin out there tomorrow. First ice trip since January 14, 2017 Hoping the gap winds are doing their thing tomorrow.

Looks like gradients should sharpen a bit tomorrow if anything. Winds were blustery by the river but relatively light out there today.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A well below average January is always a win. This cold spell is really going to weigh down the averages, so it shouldn’t be too hard.

And you’re correct that it looks like we don’t return to December level torching at the moment. Just more typical winter temps, if not a little on the mild side at times.

Also seeing a lot of EPS members indicating a cool down late month.

[snow_wizard]

Temp is dropping off nicely now.  It was stuck for a while, but down to 23.9 now.

31/17 for the day.

[ShawniganLake]

 

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A well below average January is always a win. This cold spell is really going to weigh down the averages, so it shouldn’t be too hard.

And you’re correct that it looks like we don’t return to December level torching at the moment. Just more typical winter temps, if not a little on the mild side at times.

We need that possible SSW that was forecast a few days ago and the PNA to go back negative in two weeks. Could happen. Who knows. 

[High Desert Mat?]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Temp is dropping off nicely now.  It was stuck for a while, but down to 23.9 now.

31/17 for the day.

Jesus. You got that warm? Not quite an arctic blast when you’re in the 30’s. 

[ShawniganLake]

 

[TT-SEA]

GFS says the low doesn't even really come inland.     Nothing to pull cold air back in so its just rain south of Bellingham.  

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like gradients should sharpen a bit tomorrow if anything. Winds were blustery by the river but relatively light out there today.

Yeah, the 00z bumped up gradients even a little more. Might be a decent show with the thermal gradient/inversion a little tighter.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Jesus. You got that warm? Not quite an arctic blast when you’re in the 30’s. 

Arctic air is long gone now.    We are just holding onto cold at the surface.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Temp is dropping off nicely now.  It was stuck for a while, but down to 23.9 now.

31/17 for the day.

22/15 here. We are kicking your arse for cold!

[MossMan]

18.8 

[TT-SEA]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS says the low doesn't even really come inland.     Nothing to pull cold air back in so its just rain south of Bellingham.  

For a minute it looked like it was going to take a more southern track. It is further south but weaker. The gfs is all over the place

 

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS says the low doesn't even really come inland.     Nothing to pull cold air back in so its just rain south of Bellingham.  

That just means its coming in at the mouth of the Columbia and going to pack a punch. GFS will finally pick it up and get right about 6hrs prior to landfall. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

At this point anything could.happen. for this close there is a ton of spread. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not down there.   

We'll definitely mix out to some degree, though the way we sit here, a shallow inversion eventually reaches us in a day or two if there is no additional mixing. There was a 3-4 day period in early January 2013 when we mixed out of a very cold inversion, but Salem stayed in it, that was fairly interesting, though somewhat rare. I'm rooting for the valley not to mix out because who doesn't love dense fog, slowly melting sleet, and everything being incredibly wet with temps in the upper 30s for days on end. 

[Slushy Inch]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Also seeing a lot of EPS members indicating a cool down late month.

Lots of ensemble runs hinting at Goa ridge

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

That just means its coming in at the mouth of the Columbia and going to pack a punch. GFS will finally pick it up and get right about 6hrs prior to landfall. 

Not impossible. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We'll definitely mix out to some degree, though the way we sit here, a shallow inversion eventually reaches us in a day or two if there is no additional mixing. There was a 3-4 day period in early January 2013 when we mixed out of a very cold inversion, but Salem stayed in it, that was fairly interesting, though somewhat rare. I'm rooting for the valley not to mix out because who doesn't love dense fog, slowly melting sleet, and everything being incredibly wet with temps in the upper 30s for days on end. 

I’ll tell you one thing Andrew. I don’t NOT love it!

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Trended south and weaker. Hmm.

need south and stronger. Seems unlikely 

[MossMan]

GFS is all over the place right now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

So far no sign of going into something really super warm though.  I think a royal torch is still possible, but maybe we can avoid it.  We still have the MJO 7 wildcard coming up late month too.

I would love to think we paid for this stretch with the December torch, but I guess time will tell. It would nice to just be slightly above average through the rest of the month so we can pull off at least an average if not below average month. The late month period seems to have a little potential.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

GFS is all over the place right now. 

Getting a sense there might not be much of a low at all.  

[Slushy Inch]

This run hangs on to the mid 30s longer

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

This run hangs on to the mid 30s longer

As long as its above 32 its should be fine.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Well the graph cast is going to look brilliant or bust badly with the upcoming possible event.  It has been a lot colder than the other models with it.  Looking at the pieces that are in play a good outcome could still happen.  The frustrating thing is with a few tweaks it could be something really good.

It's true. If this initial blast had more upper level support, as in some kind of GOA blocking, then this trough busting down through Western Canada would be a slam dunk to impact us. 

[Mercurial]

00z gfs shows 18 inches of snow Wed/Thurs in the Flathead with minimal downsloping... nice.  

Actually, starting to look like a crush job Montana-wide

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

This run hangs on to the mid 30s longer

Look at the Columbia Basin and Eastern Gorge NOT scouring out. 

[TT-SEA]

GEM brings low into Vancouver Island... rain for everyone.     And WB is having issues tonight.   Not loading for long stretches.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

22/15 here. We are kicking your arse for cold!

He didn't have midnight highs around 40 on Friday though...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well the graph cast is going to look brilliant or bust badly with the upcoming possible event.  It has been a lot colder than the other models with it.  Looking at the pieces that are in play a good outcome could still happen.  The frustrating thing is with a few tweaks it could be something really good.

Where does it have the low placement?