January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[FroYoBro]

Hit a high of 29 here and now back down to 28 degrees. Third day in a row of subfreezing temps. I think tomorrow should make #4 unless we mix out in the evening here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This reminds me of growing up and hearing the weather radio say quick snow to rain transition and then waking up to see a winter wonderland.  Or snow in the north interior only and rain south of Seattle and it ended up as snow in Seattle.  Models are 10 times better now but this same crap happened to the weather guys back then.

I remember the AVN model lol. 

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Jan 27th

 

February already getting it's snow boots on!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This reminds me of growing up and hearing the weather radio say quick snow to rain transition and then waking up to see a winter wonderland.  Or snow in the north interior only and rain south of Seattle and it ended up as snow in Seattle.  Models are 10 times better now but this same crap happened to the weather guys back then.

I remember the AVN model lol. 

 

 

I remember the AVN!  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good point... its only 30 hours away now and it might be less stressful to watch observations and eventually radar and just enjoy it.     There won't be any model consensus anyways.  

Such odd model differences. Euro same low position as gfs but stronger and no snow, RGEm stronger low south and lots of snow.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Such odd model differences. Euro same low position as gfs but stronger and no snow, RGEm stronger low south and lots of snow.

Strong and south is what would be needed for Seattle.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember the AVN!  

I think that is the nam now

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I think that is the nam now

And the MRF which became the GFS correct? 

[FroYoBro]

Tigard-Tualatin school district is already closed for tomorrow. I just started the job and already have a 5 day weekend.

 

Bless the arctic gods. 

[TT-SEA]

Just noticed that the satellite shows the snow on the ground down south today... it was easier to see earlier before some high clouds moved it.  

[MossMan]

My phone is not onboard. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like Bellingham stayed below freezing, I hit 34 and back down to 32 with a 16 dewpoint. 

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember the AVN!  

How about the NGM?  That model had no consideration for terrain at all.  It was kind of cool to see what would happen in that case.

[TT-SEA]

And Eugene looks like a mess.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

How about the NGM?  That model had no consideration for terrain at all.  It was kind of cool to see what would happen in that case.

Jim how is the graph cast looking?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks like Bellingham stayed below freezing, I hit 34 and back down to 32 with a 16 dewpoint. 

Same here.  Up to 34 and already dropping.  Amazing how this cold is hanging on so long after the blast.

NW OR is really interesting.  PDX is actually lightly north of the coldest tongue.  Some places just south of there are stuck in the upper teens to low 20s.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And Eugene looks like a mess.  

Wtf. I haven't ever seen anything like that. Is that all ice? And they have more coming? Omg this could be really bad.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And Eugene looks like a mess.  

Yup.  A hard freeze after a big ZR event.  Bad stuff.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And Eugene looks like a mess.  

I would love to see that in person, I bet it's beautiful. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Jim how is the graph cast looking?

About like the others now.  It's still razor close though.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And Eugene looks like a mess.  

Looks amazing!!! 

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, MossMan said:

Looks amazing!!! 

I wish Puget Sound looked like that 

[TT-SEA]

I am going with whatever the 18Z ECMWF shows... this event is a day away now.

[Winterdog]

I am very sad to report I did not log a 4th consecutive freezing max today.  I topped out at 32.6!  Currently 32.3.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I wish Puget Sound looked like that 

That is ice though.  Not fun.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I wish Puget Sound looked like that 

I don't think the extensive tree damage and extended power outages would be very fun.  Except for maybe Randy. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Much better for Bellingham, not that I live there and tries to change to snow south.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just noticed that the satellite shows the snow on the ground down south today... it was easier to see earlier before some high clouds moved it.  

Can see the little snow at my place

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Dude you are in a sweet spot. 4-8 very possible. 

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Jan 27th

 

MJO 7.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dude you are in a sweet spot. 4-8 very possible. 

If I was the boss I would issue a warning for your area for 4-8.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

MJO 7.

New gefs matches the progression a little before this frame

[Dave]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And Eugene looks like a mess.  

I've been waiting for a decent news article to come out, but there was a traffic jam yesterday that was up to FIFTEEN hours long with temps in the 20's on I-5 northbound. A bunch of big rigs wrecked, flipped, jackknifed, took out power poles, etc. A backup of 25 miles. EV cars running out of battery, people freezing, just an unbelievable situation. It was around the Cottage Grove area. I'll post an article when I find one. ODOT was completely inept and did not close the freeway so thousands of people got on the freeway not knowing what was ahead of them. No way to get out. Just a total nightmare.

[Chewbacca Defense]

WSW just dropped 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

WSW just dropped 

 

Justified for sure

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

I've been waiting for a decent news article to come out, but there was a traffic jam yesterday that was up to FIFTEEN hours long with temps in the 20's on I-5 northbound. A bunch of big rigs wrecked, flipped, jackknifed, took out power poles, etc. A backup of 25 miles. EV cars running out of battery, people freezing, just an unbelievable situation. It was around the Cottage Grove area. I'll post an article when I find one. ODOT was completely inept and did not close the freeway so thousands of people got on the freeway not knowing what was ahead of them. No way to get out. Just a total nightmare.

These ev cars just aren't there yet with the technology,  sure they work but this is a great example of why battery technology has a ways to go.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

I've been waiting for a decent news article to come out, but there was a traffic jam yesterday that was up to FIFTEEN hours long with temps in the 20's. A bunch of big rigs wrecked, flipped, jackknifed, took out power poles, etc. A backup of 25 miles. EV cars running out of battery, people freezing, just an unbelievable situation. It was around the Cottage Grove area. I'll post an article when I find one. ODOT was completely inept and did not close the freeway so thousands of people got on the freeway not knowing what was ahead of them. No way to get out. Just a total nightmare.

No big deal on the EV's just plug them in and charge them up right?

I'm a petrol head, so I'm not a fan of any sort of electrical vehicle, but I can at least acknowledge practicality of a hybrid.  Hybrid runs out of gas, once you have the gas can, dump the gas in and your are off to the races again.  EV, gotta plug it in and wait......and wait.......and wait.......

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

These ev cars just aren't there yet with the technology,  sure they work but this is a great example of why battery technology has a ways to go.

The distance you can go on a charge has become pretty good but not in a situation like this 

[RCola]

Bets for 18z Euro?

My guess is low comes in south enough for Mount Vernon north. Rain south of that.

[Slushy Inch]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am going with whatever the 18Z ECMWF shows... this event is a day away now.

Euro follows GEM?