January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Agreed. I root for as much mountain snow as possible until mid March, then it's time for spring. 

Mid march to mid April can be a huge cascade snow time.  If this crap we have now continues we just might get that snowy spring. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think we might get a real taste of spring after the upcoming cooler period.  EPS looks ridgy by Valentines Day and we are well past the winter inversion season by then.    That might set the stage for another chance by early March though.  

Oh wow i though this was a valid map, this is 360hrs lol i thought it was 160. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Oh wow i though this was a valid map, this is 360hrs lol i thought it was 160. 

Oh... its valid.   That is a very strong signal for a 50 member mean at that range and every run looks the same.  And all the ensembles look the same.   As Phil said earlier... its one way road with no forks this time. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like most of the valley didn’t hit 60 yesterday, and won’t today either.

Eugene/Springfield is often blessed even when the rest of the valley is slighted.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm worried this sets the stage for a miserable cool and cloudy April/May. I am going to get real annoying if that's true. After mid March I am ready for garden season. 

Sounds like you moved to the wrong climate. But that was already pretty clear by last summer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Mid march to mid April can be a huge cascade snow time.  If this crap we have now continues we just might get that snowy spring. 

I’m holding out for a 2010 like progression.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Sounds like you moved to the wrong climate. But that was already pretty clear by last summer.

Because every April/May is cool and cloudy 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh... its valid.   That is a very strong signal for a 50 member mean at that range and every run looks the same.  And all the ensembles look the same.   As Phil said earlier... its one way road with no forks this time. 

Why is a warm map valid at 360 but when we post a cold map at 360 it isn't. No map at 360 is accurate.  It is possible to get a idea of a pattern at this range but even that can be off thousands of miles. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Can't remember ever seeing a low that strong, that far South along the California coast.

 

Phil's long-promised STJ is finally kicking in it appears.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Why is a warm map valid at 360 but when we post a cold map at 360 it isn't. No map at 360 is accurate.  It is possible to get a idea of a pattern at this range but even that can be off thousands of miles. 

I think Tim was trolling you and not being serious.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Why is a warm map valid at 360 but when we post a cold map at 360 it isn't. No map at 360 is accurate.  It is possible to get a idea of a pattern at this range but even that can be off thousands of miles. 

Nah... this is pretty straightforward this time.   Huge AL pattern developing.   Tropical forcing and all that other mumbo jumbo.    It's definitely coming.     Sometimes the pattern in the long range hinges on minor details earlier.  Not this time.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Because every April/May is cool and cloudy 

Cool and cloudy (at least by transplant standards) is pretty typical for those months. Even more so at 1,000’ in the Olympic Mountains, I’d imagine.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I think Tim was trolling you and not being serious.

No... the ensembles can't be any more in agreement or consistent. 

Here is the GEFS for comparison. 

[Cloud]

60 once again. 
3 days in a row. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... this is pretty straightforward this time.   Huge AL pattern developing.   Tropical forcing and all that other mumbo jumbo.    It's definitely coming.     Sometimes the pattern in the long range hinges on minor details earlier.  Not this time.

 

I think we can officially rule out a Feb 2019 redux.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

60 once again. 
3 days in a row. 

Just 53 here so far. Mostly cloudy with some showers at times.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I think we can officially rule out a Feb 2019 redux.

Of course, that doesn’t mean tulips will be blooming by President’s day.

Edited January 31 by Cascadia_Wx

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

60 once again. 
3 days in a row. 

Also three straight 60+ days here. I'd imagine that doesn't happen both place often in January.

[MossMan]

I would be shocked if I don’t get at least another 3” of snow before April. 

[TT-SEA]

14 hours ago, Phil said:

Best El Niño coupling of the winter starts in a couple of weeks.

Monstrous Aleutian Low is present across guidance as we move through week-2.

 

8 hours ago, Phil said:

Yeah because it’s a regime of constructive interference (MJO reinforcing niño base state w/ in-situ high AAM/extended jet) and strong PV.

So there is nothing to disrupt the establishment of a canonical niño type pattern across the NH.

Metaphorically speaking, instead of a winding country road with multiple forks/turnoffs (like January), instead we have a highway as straight as an arrow. Only one place we can go.

Bumping Phil's analysis from earlier.

[MossMan]

Toasty again this afternoon! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I would be shocked if I don’t get at least another 3” of snow before April. 

I would bet on it for your backyard during March.    

[smerfylicious]

Can someone turn down the thermostat?

[MossMan]

Hopefully next winter will be the complete opposite PNA wise than this positive vomitfest. 
My dog is dreaming of snow goodness! 

[TT-SEA]

34 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I'm worried this sets the stage for a miserable cool and cloudy April/May. I am going to get real annoying if that's true. After mid March I am ready for garden season. 

Hard to say.   One of the hallmarks of Nino around here is an early and warmer than normal spring.   You wouldn't have believed the spring of 2016.    To say it was the polar opposite of 2022 is an understatement.   Trees were all leafed out here in March and April looked like a summer month.    Of course 2016 and 2022 are at opposites ends of the possible spectrum here for spring weather.    Something in the middle is always much more likely.

[Cloud]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Also three straight 60+ days here. I'd imagine that doesn't happen both place often in January.

SEA’s departure to date is now -2.3 (excluding today’s data). During this warmth period, we’re seeing +0.5 to +0.6 to the negative departure. At this rate, the month will end up between -1.0 to -1.5. Which is still below normal, but what is normal anymore? 

[TT-SEA]

Another early spring was 2015... this pic was taken in North Bend on Valentines Day that year.

[TT-SEA]

And this was mid-April in 2016.   Truly summer-like.  

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another early spring was 2015... this pic was taken in North Bend on Valentines Day that year.

That’s great and all…Bur what I wouldn’t give for a 2021 repeat! 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That’s great and all…Bur what I wouldn’t give for a 2021 repeat! 

2017 was the start of the February craziness!

[Front Ranger]

56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And this was mid-April in 2016.   Truly summer-like.  

Sprinkler and all!

[T-Town]

58 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And this was mid-April in 2016.   Truly summer-like.  

Bucolic. 

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Sprinkler and all!

Actually only on the garden at that time.  The young plants coming up need to stay damp at that stage.  Usually not an issue in April or May.    After about mid-June the garden is so big that it shades itself and you rarely have to water even when it doesn't rain for a couple weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Just so no one is surprised... the ECMWF shows another nighttime temp spike late tonight ahead of incoming front offshore.   Outside chance SEA secures a 4th 60+ day before sunrise tomorrow. 

[MossMan]

Just another typical 60/53 degree January day! 
could go higher, temp has popped back up to 59 currently. 

Edited January 31 by MossMan

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Mid march to mid April can be a huge cascade snow time.  If this crap we have now continues we just might get that snowy spring. 

True. If February and half of January end up being a complete dud for mountain snow, I wouldn't mind March and April dumping snow in the cascades. As long as that means it won't be cloudy in Texas for the solar eclipse this April. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Down to 38 now, our high temp was 59.9 so we unfortunately BARELY managed to dodge 3 days in a row reaching 60.

Edited January 31 by Sunriver Snow Zone

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Down to 38 now, our high temp was 59.9 so we BARELY managed to dodge 3 days in a row reaching 60.

Nice to get a W in for the good team.

[GHweatherChris]

A nice long moist chilly spring would be amazing!!

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

A nice long moist chilly spring would be amazing!!

That's what she said.