January 17-19 Plains-Midwest Snowfall

[hawkstwelve]

RAP is trending a bit weaker and slower.

[Hoosier]

Been a while since I chased a lake effect setup in northwest IN, but may have to consider it depending how things unfold.  It's hard to find negative factors for this one.  The main uncertainty revolves around positioning and whether an intense band can stall out somewhere.  I think there is good potential for a stall at some point, and if that were to occur while at/near peak intensity, then there would be the potential for amounts of 2 feet+, favoring somewhere in Porter/LaPorte counties if that were to occur.

[bud2380]

18z HRRR

[hawkstwelve]

ICON is trending weaker. Think this might end up where the CMC/RDPS axis placement is correct but the GFS/Euro lesser precip amounts are also correct. 

[hawkstwelve]

Winter Weather Advisory issued for a vast majority of SE SD and NW IA. WWA calling for 1-3 inches while my updated zone forecast is calling for 2-4. They mention in their afternoon AFD the potential of blowing/drifting snow with wind gusts peaking in the 25-35 mph range. Not bad for a little quick moving clipper. 

[hawkstwelve]

Latest RAP continues the overall weakening trend seen across most model guidance. I was debating whether to call for 2-4 or 3-6 and was leaning towards the former but felt extra ballsy this morning and went with 3-6. I think there is still an outside shot of reach 5+ inches but it's getting narrower as we get closer to the event. 2-4 inches seems like a more safe bet. 

[Grizzcoat]

Heavy snow in my grids. AFD no mention of this. (I think a paragraph got deleted)

[Grizzcoat]

This system will comfortably put DSM in 2nd place for all time snowiest Januarys'-

Currently at 23.1" -- which means 3 of the last 4 JAN's are in the Top 10 - and four of the last 6.  Impressive.

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro did juice up a bit compared to 12z.

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

This system will comfortably put DSM in 2nd place for all time snowiest Januarys'-

Currently at 23.1" -- which means 3 of the last 4 JAN's are in the Top 10 - and four of the last 6.  Impressive.

I have measured  38.7" mby this season.

34.7" in January 

It truly feels like record territory  here in the Ottumwa  Iowa area?

Seems like Ottumwa  and Fairfield  Iowa lead the whole usa east of rockies compared to normal?

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

00z HRRRRRR looking a bit better for here compared to 18z run. It shows 1"/hr rates from 10AM-1PM tomorrow and then 0.5"/hr rates for a couple hours after that. Not too shabby.

[indianajohn]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Been a while since I chased a lake effect setup in northwest IN, but may have to consider it depending how things unfold.  It's hard to find negative factors for this one.  The main uncertainty revolves around positioning and whether an intense band can stall out somewhere.  I think there is good potential for a stall at some point, and if that were to occur while at/near peak intensity, then there would be the potential for amounts of 2 feet+, favoring somewhere in Porter/LaPorte counties if that were to occur.

I think I lake county east of I65  might have a decent shot and some decent accumulation 

[Cfweather]

2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I have measured  38.7" mby this season.

34.7" in January 

It truly feels like record territory  here in the Ottumwa  Iowa area?

Seems like Ottumwa  and Fairfield  Iowa lead the whole usa east of rockies compared to normal?

 

 

This will put Waterloo into the top snowiest ever.  We are about an inch under.  

[hawkstwelve]

RDPS continues to remain among the more snowier solutions for here. It hasn't wavered from the 5+ inches it has shown for at least the past three runs. 

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro has juiced up a bit more through Iowa.

[Tom]

12z HRRR...looking prime time for NW IN...ORD will likely surpass the 20" mark for the season with this event.

[Tom]

@Hoosier, are you going Lake Effect snow tracking??  This set up looks wild just to your east...

[hawkstwelve]

Snow has started falling here from this system.

Most models this morning look to be settling in the 3-4 inch range for here. Just the right amount for a nice refresher but not too much to cause any headaches. I'll take it!

[metallica470]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:50 AM, Tom said:

Do you live anywhere close to the lake?

I lived in the West Loop for a few years, but recently moved to Orland Park so the lake effect days will likely be long gone for me now while out here.

This upcoming lake effect for Indiana is definitely looking very enticing to make the drive out to though.  If this band sits anywhere for a prolong period of time totals could get out of hand very quickly!

[Hawkeye]

Several models have sagged south this morning... tracking the snow band through southeast Iowa.

[indianajohn]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z HRRR...looking prime time for NW IN...ORD will likely surpass the 20" mark for the season with this event.

 

@tbone8 is going to get Crushed!!! But he's used to LES events like these!!

[hawkstwelve]

Decently heavy snow falling here right now. I'll go out and measure in a bit but driveway and roads are already re-covered. I'd guess we have around an inch so far. 

[bud2380]

The RAP really weakens as it heads east across Iowa.

 

[bud2380]

15z HRRR does the same thing as the RAP.  But 2-3" is fine for me.  

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Hoosier, are you going Lake Effect snow tracking??  This set up looks wild just to your east...

Not sure yet.  Just want to see how things are playing out.  Although I'm bullish on the setup (think there's a real shot for it to be among the great LES events of all-time off of southern Lake Michigan), there are some signals of the band waffling around and possibly being disrupted from time to time, both of which could cut into totals a little.  Granted this is all relative, as the floor is still probably like 12-18", but I don't really want to bother with anything under 18" or so.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, indianajohn said:

@tbone8 is going to get Crushed!!! But he's used to LES events like these!!

What town is he in?

[indianajohn]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What town is he in?

Laporte 

[bud2380]

Ironically the Euro kept getting stronger as the event got closer.  Looks like a slightly weaker version of what the Canadian (RDPS and GDPS) have been showing for a couple days.  H/T to the Canadian models for really nailing this one.

 

[BojiMom]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Decently heavy snow falling here right now. I'll go out and measure in a bit but driveway and roads are already re-covered. I'd guess we have around an inch so far. 

Schools are letting out early across northwest Iowa. I'd guess we have over 2" so far and still snowing hard. 

[Hawkeye]

18z HRRR

[bud2380]

Looking at the radar, it seems like southern Iowa is in line to get the heaviest snow.  I80 on south anyways.  We'll see if this rotates more due east, or continue to head ESE.

[hawkstwelve]

52 minutes ago, BojiMom said:

Schools are letting out early across northwest Iowa. I'd guess we have over 2" so far and still snowing hard. 

Nice report!  

Tough to measure with the blowing snow but we have on average about 3-3.5" here. Last night my son was hoping for school to be closed today in anticipation of the snow. I told him that we don't live in WA state anymore where they close schools for 1-2 inches of snow so I'd expect them to be open. Sure enough, school started on time today. Going to be a little dicey for school pickup on the side streets but the main roads have already had plows go through, so that's kinda nice. 

Still have light to occasionally moderate snow falling here. Temp has been steady at 6 degrees for a while. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Pure rippage 

[CentralNebWeather]

Heavy snow band came through with blizzard conditions for awhile. Snowing and blowing again. More impact than was anticipated around here. MS Basketball games postponed. Lots of games starting to be called off as snow is blowing across the roads. Almost 0 visibility on the north side of town as I drove home from school. I hope after the warm spell, this all cycles through in February and March. Typically our stormiest and snowy months. 

[Hawkeye]

Radar shows most of the snow sagging into southern Iowa.  The latest HRRR/RAP have dropped Cedar Rapids down to only 1-2".

[CentralNebWeather]

After the latest snow. 

 

 

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Heavy snow band came through with blizzard conditions for awhile. Snowing and blowing again. More impact than was anticipated around here. MS Basketball games postponed. Lots of games starting to be called off as snow is blowing across the roads. Almost 0 visibility on the north side of town as I drove home from school. I hope after the warm spell, this all cycles through in February and March. Typically our stormiest and snowy months. 

I think there is a snow squall warning on that band.

[jcwxguy]

3" of snow just measured!  over performer so far

[jcwxguy]

Quote

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Snow Squall Warning
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
427 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

IAC085-133-NEC021-023-037-039-053-055-095-109-151-155-159-173-177-
182300-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SQ.W.0001.240118T2227Z-240118T2300Z/
Monona IA-Harrison IA-Burt NE-Colfax NE-Lancaster NE-Seward NE-
Jefferson NE-Douglas NE-Saline NE-Saunders NE-Cuming NE-
Washington NE-Dodge NE-Thurston NE-Butler NE-
427 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Snow Squall Warning for...
  South central Monona County in west central Iowa...
  Western Harrison County in southwestern Iowa...
  Burt County in east central Nebraska...
  Southeastern Colfax County in northeastern Nebraska...
  Central Lancaster County in southeastern Nebraska...
  Seward County in southeastern Nebraska...
  Northwestern Jefferson County in southeastern Nebraska...
  Western Douglas County in east central Nebraska...
  Saline County in southeastern Nebraska...
  Saunders County in east central Nebraska...
  Southeastern Cuming County in northeastern Nebraska...
  Washington County in east central Nebraska...
  Dodge County in east central Nebraska...
  South central Thurston County in northeastern Nebraska...
  Butler County in east central Nebraska...

* Until 500 PM CST.

* At 426 PM CST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line 
  extending from 15 miles northeast of Fremont to near York, moving 
  southeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Whiteout conditions with near zero visibility associated 
           with intense bursts of heavy snow and wind gusts greater 
           than 50 mph.

  SOURCE...Radar, emergency management, and webcams.

  IMPACT...Dangerous and life-threatening travel conditions are 
           expected to develop rapidly in the warning area.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 77 and 101.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 366 and 409.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln, Fremont, Blair, Seward, Wahoo, West Point, David City,
Tekamah, Bennington, Elkhorn, Crete, Schuyler, Waverly, Missouri
Valley, Milford, Valley, Wilber, Oakland, Arlington, and North Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes
your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra
time. Rapid changes in visibility and slick road conditions may lead
to accidents.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 9737 4208 9655 4174 9576 4119 9627
      4119 9633 4114 9631 4000 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 305DEG 32KT 4195 9641 4068 9776 

SNOW SQUALL...OBSERVED
SNOW SQUALL IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT 

$$

BLB