March 2024 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm not sure winter is done with you, models have been pretty consistent dropping a trough over the lakes and points east around the 18th.  Negative AO and NAO with a big dip in the EPO has the pattern looks ripe for some late season clippers, despite the MJO moving through the warm phases.

I would not be too surprised if we get one spring snowstorm.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 52/35 there was no rainfall. The sun was out 82% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 31 MPH out of the NE. For today the average H/L is up to 41/24 the record high of 72 was set in 2000. The record low of -3 was set in 1986. The wettest was 1.37” on 1903 the most snowfall of 5.2” fell in 1935. The most snow on the ground was 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 44/27 and there was a trace of snowfall.

 

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1908: After heavy snow in February, heavy rains and warmer conditions set in, setting the stage for a disastrous flood. The Kalamazoo River flooded the town of Albion when the Homer Dam broke around 3 p.m. By midnight, the bridges surrounding the town were underwater. Six buildings in Albion collapsed.

1999: Arctic air and several inches of fresh snow on the ground combine to drop temperatures to a record low of 13 below zero at Lansing.

2000: Temperatures reach the 70s during a record early season warm spell. Grand Rapids hits 72 degrees and Lansing 74 degrees.

 2000, the temperature rose to 75 degrees in Flint and 73 degrees in Saginaw. These are the earliest 70-degree days recorded in the cities of Flint and Saginaw.

1997, The worst was finally over for states hit hard by the flooding Ohio River. The river crested on the 6th at Louisville, Kentucky, 15 feet above flood stage, after topping out at nearly 13 feet at Cincinnati, Ohio, and more than 7 feet at Huntington, West Virginia.

[Tom]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

..and just like that, snow drifts and piles are on the endangered species list up here. The one that our contractor plowed up in an open spot along our street is down to about 18" by eye-ball gauge. Time to "spring forward" and Solar Summer is just around the corner. I'm fine with the shift. This is the time of year when I am pretty much done with winter (although last year we had our best month in March, lol). Not sure I can handle another 13-14 endless winter anymore, lol. @Tom I could use a little Pheonix about now.  

Come on down!   The ridge is going to build in well timed for this weekend (Nascar Race) and for the better part of the 2nd half of March from all indications.  Winter may return in your area when its not welcomed!

[Tom]

54 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Significant rainfall expected here today and tomorrow.  1-2 inches with some higher amounts possible and we really need it.

 

 Late season blocking appears to become a common theme for this Sping IMHO....your going to do well this Spring/Summer...

[chescowxman]

We continue our wet year as over the last 2 days rain totals ranged from a low of 0.68" at Glenmoore to as much as 1.00" in West Chester. We can a break with some sun and continued mild both today and tomorrow before rain arrives again Saturday. By Sunday morning we could see close to another inch of rain.

County wide records for today: High 75 Coatesville (1921) / Low 4 below West Chester (2015) / Rain 2.70" West Grove (1967) / Snow 13.0" West Grove (1962)

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

 Late season blocking appears to become a common theme for this Sping IMHO....your going to do well this Spring/Summer...

Just hope its wet.  Everyone around here could use a nice hay and corn crop after last year.

[Hawkeye]

Most models continue to dry out the rain event for Nebraska and Iowa.  A day or two ago, it had looked like widespread 1", but many are down to under a half inch.  Southeast Nebraska may not get anything.  It feels like the drought will never end.

[Andie]

61*.  Rain with some heavier showers.   
Not that I’m not extremely grateful but it hits the same day I had to drive into downtown Ft Worth at the tail end of rush hour.  

More rain to come through the afternoon.  I guess I won’t melt.  

[CentralNebWeather]

WWA 1 county to my west. 

[Timmy Supercell]

6 hours ago, westMJim said:

I would not be too surprised if we get one spring snowstorm.

It would have to be a one hit wonder considering the way things swing around through the week.

And daytime highs had to have taken a blow by now unless you're far enough north to get cold days still.

[Clinton]

Nice steady rain falling with a nearly stationary band over my place.  I'm worried for those north of I-70 in Missouri, the rain just seems to refuse to push into northern Missouri. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I’m now in a WWA. Ok then. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Tom]

Getting some nice rainfall...been a little while since we've had a good soaking...glad to see the central Valley getting hit good, esp over Sky Harbor where the officially readings take place.

 

Quote

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...

At 1221 PM MST, radar indicated thunderstorms were developing across
portions of south-central Arizona this afternoon.

Conditions are becoming more favorable for the development of
additional thunderstorms. Some storms may become strong.

Accumulating pea size hail along with some gusts in excess of 30 mph
will be possible.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I80 Southwest Nebraska. Looks like winter. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

The evenings sound totally like Spring now. Pulling out the big plastic fork... 

[Andie]

Big thunder boomers outside. Pouring.  According to the radar we’ll have thunderstorms until about 11 pm.
 Sweet. 
This will be added to our 1 1/4” today.  Love it!

[CentralNebWeather]

37 degrees with a strong north wind and snow is just to my west. Saying 1-3”, but some short term models put down more. Ok. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Snow has begun. Reports of 8-10” south of North Platte NE. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Andie]

Hard to find a place for this.  
I’ll slip it in here.  

Texas Utility set off fire. 
Drought fueled wildfire.  
https://apnews.com/article/wildfires-texas-smokehouse-xcel-energy-22540df0a0c1d2c42a7fe0284858845a

7000 cows died. Fields ruined, equipment and buildings destroyed. 

[Clinton]

I got a nice rain yesterday of .70 inches but it was about half of what was forecasted.  Here's some estimated rainfall totals from around the are and the latest drought monitor that shows how the drought has intensified again in many areas.

[Clinton]

The latest Euro Weeklies showing a lot of high latitude blocking and a slow start to Spring.  This may not be good for many of the southern members as trees are budding out like it's early April in my area.  After next weeks big warm up the pattern looks to cool dramatically as a big ridge develops over the west.  500mb flow from March 17th through April 16th.

Mid April looks especially cool especially given the models bias toward warmth.

Much needed rainfall in the south while the drought looks to really intensify in the north.  This LRC has had a strong El Nino flavor and that looks to continue even as El Nino fades.

 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

Looks like it's just sitting over ya this morning!

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 48/31 there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 25 MPH out of the SE. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 41/25 the record high of 78 was set in 2000 the record low of -13 was set in 1943 the wettest was in 1942 with 1.02” of that 1.9” was snowfall. The most snow fall was 4.5” in 1931. Last year the H/L was 44.24

[westMJim]

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The latest Euro Weeklies showing a lot of high latitude blocking and a slow start to Spring.  This may not be good for many of the southern members as trees are budding out like it's early April in my area.  After next weeks big warm up the pattern looks to cool dramatically as a big ridge develops over the west.  500mb flow from March 17th through April 16th.

I would not be surprised if April, May and June are all cooler than average. In 1983 a winter with a strong El Nino that flipped to a weak La Nina April, May and June were all below average. 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1943: Grand Rapids plummets to 13 below zero, the coldest ever recorded in March there. This caps a very cold period during the first ten days of the month, where four days had lows at or below zero at Grand Rapids.

2000: Temperatures soar into the upper 70s across Lower Michigan, with some places hitting 80 degrees. The 78 degrees at Grand Rapids is a record high for the date and for so early in the season.

2014: Severe and prolonged cold weather during the winter brought record ice coverage to Lake Michigan by early March. Ice coverage peaked at 93.29 percent on this date, just edging the record of 93.1 percent set in the winter of 1977.

2017: A powerful low-pressure center moving through southern Canada brings winds gusting over 60 mph across Lower Michigan for much of the day. Winds reach 64 mph at Grand Rapids. The winds cause millions of dollars in damage and large-scale power outages. Two people were killed when a tree fell on their vehicle while they were driving on M-115 in Clare County.

On March 8, 2018, a long-duration accumulating snow came to an end as a slow-moving storm moved through the region. When it was finally over, accumulations approached one foot in Huron, Lapeer, and Sanilac Counties. A peak measurement of 14″ was taken in Cass City in Tuscola County.

Also on March 8, 2017, ideal high wind conditions took shape under perfectly sunny skies. Strong winds developed early Wednesday morning and intensified steadily into the afternoon. Widespread wind gusts in excess of 60 mph were recorded, including 68 mph in Detroit and Saginaw and 61 mph in Flint. The power outage footprint grew steadily through the day eventually leaving approximately 1,160,000 customers statewide without power. Final estimates indicate approximately half a billion dollars in damage.

Also on March 8, 2000, the temperature rose to 80 degrees in Flint, a record for the date and a tie for the 5th warmest maximum temperature for the month of March in Flint.

Across the US

1909,  The town of Brinkley, Arkansas, was struck by an estimated F4 tornado, which killed 49 people. The tornado, which was two-thirds of a mile wide, destroyed 860 buildings. Entire families were killed as houses were completely swept away by the storm.

1989,  While Arctic cold gripped the northeastern U.S., unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southwestern states. Albany, New York, reported a record low of 2 degrees below zero. Tucson, Arizona, reported a record high of 90 degrees

2000, An F1 tornado traveled a short distance across Milwaukee, Wisconsin, during the evening hours. The tornado injured 16 people.

 

[Tom]

40 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The latest Euro Weeklies showing a lot of high latitude blocking and a slow start to Spring.  This may not be good for many of the southern members as trees are budding out like it's early April in my area.  After next weeks big warm up the pattern looks to cool dramatically as a big ridge develops over the west.  500mb flow from March 17th through April 16th.

Mid April looks especially cool especially given the models bias toward warmth.

Much needed rainfall in the south while the drought looks to really intensify in the north.  This LRC has had a strong El Nino flavor and that looks to continue even as El Nino fades.

 

Easter weekend is very early this year on March 31st...I can't remember the last time it landed in March?  Anyway, someone will be shoveling snow on Easter it appears!  

 

Edit: Just did a quick check...the last time was in 2016 (3/27) and then 2013 (3/31)...

[westMJim]

After the first 7 days March 2024 is the 2nd warmest start to any March at Grand Rapids. The mean after 7 days in 47.2 that is 2nd only to 1983 that year the 1st 7 days had a mean of 51.4. The highest so far this March is 70 in 1983 it reached 72 on March 3rd The winter of 1983 had a very strong El Nino that flipped to a weak La Nina that fall.  In 1983 April, May and June were all cooler than average with April being -5.0 below average and May being -6.5 below average.

[Tom]

Is it just me or did the models bust on the snow forecasts in NE and from what it looks like OMA peeps?  17" tally and rising in North Platte...

[CentralNebWeather]

16 minutes ago, Tom said:

Is it just me or did the models bust on the snow forecasts in NE and from what it looks like OMA peeps?  17" tally and rising in North Platte...

Huge bust. 5-6” here with heavy snow continuing. My son and I left for the state basketball tournament in Lincoln this morning at 5:15. Turned around at Kearney. Roads and visibility horrible. Interstate closed from Minden west. This is probably our 3rd largest storm of the year. People completely surprised. Many schools closed. We are on Spring Break. Well, we are home safely, so we will watch the semifinals at home on the NFHS Network. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Looks like it's just sitting over ya this morning!

Getting drilled. Tough getting around even with 4x4 truck. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Huge bust. 5-6” here with heavy snow continuing. My son and I left for the state basketball tournament in Lincoln this morning at 5:15. Turned around at Kearney. Roads and visibility horrible. Interstate closed from Minden west. This is probably our 3rd largest storm of the year. People completely surprised. Many schools closed. We are on Spring Break. Well, we are home safely, so we will watch the semifinals at home on the NFHS Network. 

These are the type of surprise snowstorms you would love to see in the heart of winter.  Nevertheless, I'm sure your enjoying watching the snow fall outside as the daylight emerges.  This has to be quite the shock to the system!

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

These are the type of surprise snowstorms you would love to see in the heart of winter.  Nevertheless, I'm sure your enjoying watching the snow fall outside as the daylight emerges.  This has to be quite the shock to the system!

Was 47 degrees yesterday. 25 degrees with north winds to 40 mph. We even have drifting going on. This is nuts. However, we will sure take the moisture. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1/2 mile visibility with heavy snow as of 7:20 am. If this continues, we may push 8” this morning. Amazing. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Was 47 degrees yesterday. 25 degrees with north winds to 40 mph. We even have drifting going on. This is nuts. However, we will sure take the moisture. 

The pattern setting up could deliver several more of these types of systems.  Enjoy the scenery!

[CentralNebWeather]